Extraterrestrial First Contact: The Basics of Crisis Response

The COVID-19 pandemic highlights the need for effective crisis response. Humans have been studying crisis situations for many years. Best practices for crisis response have been developed and refined. We humans are employing them now, albeit not as effectively or as early as we might have hoped. These are the most important lessons that I see us learning in our COVID-19 response thus far. They could apply to any future crisis situation, including alien Direct First Contact.

Be Proactive

Don’t wait until problems develop to work on response. Use thoughtful consideration and imagination to identify possible future problems and develop responses before they become a crisis. Listen to others.

Be Knowledgeable

Seek out information and best practices. Use data to inform decision making. Understand that data can be incomplete or wrong. Use critical thinking at each step. Collect better data. Find new ways to analyze the best data.

Be Cautious

Crisis requires us to protect ourselves and our civilization. Use thoughtful consideration in decision-making. Consider both short-term and long-term impacts.

Be Practical

Take care of the most immediate needs first. Use the resources you have available. Seek out new resources. Identify new needs. In crisis everyone has a part to play. Your part may not be obvious at first, but it will reveal itself if you look carefully. Get involved and make a difference.

Be Creative

Find new ways to do the things that are most important.

Move Forward

Crisis inevitably calls for action. Move forward employing all of the previous actions. Have a clear process to decide what has worked and what is not working. Keep refining your response.

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Extraterrestrial First Contact: COVID-19 Provides Insight into First Contact

It may seem too soon to dissect the COVID-19 pandemic. It has caused so much illness, grief and disruption. However, it is an international crisis with a scope that has not been seen in many decades. As such, it can be a road map showing possible human dynamics in a Direct First Contact event. Let me be clear about what I am saying. COVID-19 is a major health disaster for humans. Direct First Contact, where aliens come to our solar system to say hello, does not necessarily have to be a threat, and certainly not a disaster. That’s not what I am suggesting. I do believe that the massive international crisis caused by COVID-19 is a rare event in modern human history, and as such, it can provide unique insight into human social dynamics during a global emergency, and thus it is a window to view the challenges of a Direct First Contact event. So, if the aliens come in peace and with apparently good intentions, how would such an event be similar to the COVID-19 pandemic? If aliens arrive in the solar system there will be an element of threat inherent in human reaction, no matter what extraterrestrials express as their intentions. How aliens conduct that contact could also ramp up the threat perception, even if that was not their intention to do such. But the primary similarities are the existential discomfort both situations bring about and the world-wide nature of the two events.

Here are the other major similarities that I see:

Poles of Reaction

The pandemic initially produced two extreme poles of response. On one side some people were immediately panicked by the virus spread. An example of their reaction is out of control grocery store hoarding. On the other side were people who refused to take any action because they believed the threat was overblown by the media. To a certain extent, those two polar reactions can still be seen today. In Direct First Contact, the poles of extreme reaction could be those who welcome aliens without question and humans who want authorities to refuse all contact with extraterrestrials. Just as with COVID-19, the extremists would be more vocal than the moderate middle and more exciting for media coverage. And it seems that in both cases the moderate middle may be the best response. Take reasonable precautions. Don’t underestimate the threat. The media will have to be careful in a First Contact situation. They will need to take steps to put human reaction in the proper context, and help calm people, rather than inflame the situation. In my opinion, it took some media outlets too long to understand their important role in COVID-19.

Misinformation

As I have stated earlier on this blog, there is plenty of misinformation about COVID-19. We have all heard rumors that have turned out to be untrue. We may have also heard rumors that turned out to be correct. In a crisis situation there needs to be a well-organized communication system. Rumors and misinformation need to be addressed and dispelled, if those rumors rise to the level of common knowledge. This means having people responsible for tracking Internet and social media sites for trends and then providing responses as needed. Information is coming from so many sources with COVID-19 and it is clearly problematic. When the public gets conflicting information from sources of authority, it causes them to distrust all authority. That can be dangerous. An alien Direct First Contact event would be easier to control in terms of information, because it should be quite centralized. We would hope that there would not be multiple extraterrestrial landing craft on Earth, if that is how it happens. If extraterrestrials reach out to one authority source, and keep all communication through that source, it will be easier to provide clear information and correct misinformation. But those in charge will need to be proactive and immediate in response. It will take a massive, coordinated effort on the part of world leaders and even more so, cooperation between governments and government entities at every level.

The Dangers of a Slow Response

The slow response to the COVID-19 crisis in China, the United States, and Italy has been a costly mistake, both in terms of human life and welfare. Alien First Contact is certainly not like a health crisis in that it would have to be contained, if the aliens come in peace. However, it would be a crisis of public perception with perhaps a much greater risk in the long-term. Authorities will need to respond in a calm and deliberate manner and they will need to do so with transparency. There is an inherent danger in cover-ups and in these days of social media and video proliferation, hiding things is tough. Just ask the Chinese government. Video of what was going on in the early days of COVID-19 made it out to the whole world, despite attempts to stem the flow of information. You can no longer hide major events from the world public. However, China is apparently still trying to keep the full extent of the crisis hidden. Such actions can only undermine authority in the long run. The United States government has shown perhaps the biggest failure. Leaders had weeks to prepare for the virus and yet very little was done. First Contact would require an immediate coordinated response.

Political Polarization

COVID-19 has become a political battle in many nations and especially in the United States, where it falls during a presidential election year. The danger with political polarization is that politicians use the event to further their political interests, not worrying about what is best for the public. I think all Americans have been cringing when politicians in both major parties use the health crisis to further an agenda or protect their power. Self-interest is dangerous in this COVID-19 outbreak and it would also be dangerous in a Direct First Contact event. Everyone will need to call out political opportunism when they see it, and focus on facts.

Media Hype

There is a fair amount of media hype with COVID-19. And that isn’t a political statement. Media operations are doing what they usually do- seizing on the sexiest soundbite and catch phrase to get people to watch their channel or visit their website. Unfortunately, COVID-19 coverage calls for more sober judgment and Direct First Contact would as well. The media has begun to act more responsibly, but it has been slow coming.

International Challenges

COVID-19 has created major challenges for international relations. National interest is a priority for national leaders, which is quite understandable. Thus far, nations seem to be working through it without major conflict, but one could see a path where that changes. There are already people using COVID-19 to argue against globalization, and to attack other nations.

The same would be true of Direct First Contact. National leaders would need to carefully weigh national interest versus international interest. In the case of Direct First Contact it should be much easier. If aliens reach out to the international community as whole- the national interest of each country would be to align with the international interest. There would be nothing to be gained by going rogue in a Direct First Contact event. And worse, there could be plenty to be lost if the other nations chose to ostracize the rogue nation.

Listen to the Scientists

We have a complex society with many professional specialties. It is important to seek out opinions from specialists in any crisis situation. And leaders need to listen to those specialists. Politicians ignoring warnings from experts in this COVID-19 pandemic has costs lives and could continue to do so. In First Contact, the most important specialists would depend on the nature of that contact. If it is a signal from a far-off star system the astrophysicists, mathematicians, and linguists could be on the front line. In a Direct First Contact event, sociologists and experts in international relations could provide the most valuable insight. It would be important to consult the people who have been studying the possibility of First Contact as first responders. Then other academic areas will need to turn their expertise to the issue of First Contact. Eventually, new fields of study would develop, and that would require interdisciplinary study, which is not something our system of science does well.

Listen to Each Other

Perhaps the biggest take-away from COVID-19 is the human reaction. As ordinary humans struggle to adapt to the crisis, we see new patterns of reaction and thought. People in China, Italy, and the United States feel similar fears. They react to home quarantine in similar ways. We see people singing on balconies in Milan and then do the same a few weeks later in suburban American neighborhoods. We listen and learn from each other. In sharing our fears and our adaptations will become stronger. Direct First Contact would be such an event- a rare moment when all of humanity shares something together. We have learned with COVID-19 that such sharing provides great emotional strength.

I have had many blog posts recently using COVID-19 as a comparison to Direct First Contact. I do understand that COVID-19 is an international health disaster and that Direct First Contact may never occur. I don’t mean to diminish the extraordinary impact of this pandemic. However, it is a remarkable crisis event that is testing our modern systems of communication and governance in a way that nothing else has. In that way it can provide some insight into challenges we may face if Direct First Contact does occur someday. Let’s get through this pandemic with our human dignity and our civilization intact.

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Extraterrestrial First Contact: That Which Does Not Kill Us

You have probably heard the German philosopher Friedrich Nietzsche’s quote "That which does not kill us makes us stronger.” Quite often this is the case with humans. We learn from past mistakes and go on to do things more effectively. The novel coronavirus, COVID-19, is an example of this occurring in human society. The pandemic may better prepare us for worse disease outbreaks in the future. Health authorities in China will hopefully learn from their mistake of hiding the initial outbreak. In the United States, it is clear that the Strategic National Stockpile of medical emergency materials is woefully under prepared. Testing has also been a big issue in the United States. Now, can we guarantee that nations will learn from their mistakes? Of course not. Sometimes governments and institutions fail, even after learning from a crisis. We could become complacent about the Strategic National Stockpile in a year or two. Coronavirus vaccine research apparently dried up a few years ago because of a lack of interest and funding. But hopefully some lessons will be learned from this pandemic and responses improved for future events.

So, why do I write about this topic for a blog about extraterrestrial First Contact? If an advanced extraterrestrial civilization knows that we are here on Earth, “That which does not kill us…” may be the reason they haven’t contacted humans. Our human civilization advances in lurches and sometimes that includes going backwards before going forward. Progress is not a straight line. We learn from our mistakes and we work to make things better. The same is true of our scientific system. It is just as important to have scientific failures as it is to have advances. The failures lead to the advances. By learning what doesn’t work, we can get a clearer picture of what might work. It’s possible that an advanced alien civilization doesn’t want to interfere in this process here on Earth. They could very well be watching this unfold and tracking our progress.

There could be situations that would cause such aliens to change course and decide that it is time for them to make contact. Perhaps it could be a backwards slide that they worry we won’t recover from? It’s interesting to note the stresses that COVID-19 has put on our global interaction. Some people are questioning the wisdom of globalization efforts. It seems that COVID-19 may be a harmful, but not catastrophic event for humanity. But what if it was much worse? What would that do to the human civilization? What if tens of millions die in a future pandemic or if there is a nuclear war? One possibility is the so called “Dark Ages” for Europe. The Little Ice Age, thought to be caused by a massive volcano eruption, caused famine across the western hemisphere around 1300 AD. The Black Plague struck a few decades later and killed 20 million people in Europe. The result was a return to smaller, fractious governments in Europe and a decline in science and literature. It lasted for centuries.

If humans were facing a “Dark Ages” scenario again, would aliens intervene? That would, of course, depend on the intentions of the extraterrestrials. For all we know, they could be watching and hoping that our progress is stunted so that we don’t develop the technology to go out into the wider universe and bother them. If they did have good intentions towards us, they would want to carefully weigh each disaster to decide the impact. Under the “That which does not kill us…” philosophy they would be hesitant to get involved unless they had to. Humans often view aliens as potential saviors, rescuing us from our problems of climate change, dirty energy production, and other pollution. However, it seems unrealistic to expect aliens to have better ideas than us when it comes to human conditions. Take a look at COVID-19. It’s a human virus. We have many years of experience examining viruses here on Earth. Why should we expect aliens to have more knowledge about something so specific to Earth? I’m not ruling out the idea that extraterrestrial insight might assist with human progress. But it seems likely that information would be much more general in nature, if they decided to share at all. Perhaps it could be insight into better data mining techniques? It could be a key idea in physics that could change our way of thought.

If high-information, Direct First Contact does occur someday, we should be prepared to be disappointed in what aliens offer us in terms of scientific and social help. I think, though, we would get over such a disappointment. The realization that we are not alone in the universe may be enough to spark a social renaissance in human society. Just that change in perspective could be the best gift of all.

Extraterrestrial First Contact: A World-Wide Jolt to the System

The Coronavirus named COVID-19 can provide great insight into how crisis is managed at the international level. It began as an illness in one particular Chinese city, Wuhan, and within weeks posed a threat to the stability of the world economy. It shows how nations are very much tied together these days. The Chinese response of shutting down factories and product distribution networks to prevent further spread of the disease soon became a concern internationally. And we are connected by more than just economic factors. Recently Paul Stares with the Council on Foreign Relations took a look at international crisis: “The world’s primary operating systems are now so tightly coupled that even relatively minor disruptions or shocks from geopolitical events are likely to reverberate widely and rapidly.”

Extraterrestrial First Contact could be a major geopolitical event for humanity. It depends on how big a threat it is to our security and how disruptive it is to our way of thinking. I believe that the proximity of aliens to Earth and the amount of information available from those aliens would be the two most important considerations in determining the level of crisis in a First Contact event. If the aliens are communicating to us from light-years away, the threat is relatively insignificant. However, if aliens have a spacecraft orbiting Earth, the level of threat would be quite high. I call that Direct First Contact.

The problem with responding to crisis in a Direct First Contact situation would not be getting people to pay attention- that would happen quite rapidly. The challenge would be how to get people to look beyond the obvious threat and examine the possible repercussions from First Contact. If aliens present themselves to us with good intentions, I believe that these repercussions could be much more dangerous than the alien threat. Those actions could include misinformation leading to fear; nations and corporations fighting for access to extraterrestrial information and insight; power grabs by politicians; and extremist violence.

This 2009 warning by the Council on Foreign Relations was a response to more earthly matters, but one could see how it could apply to extraterrestrial First Contact:

“Getting policymakers to commit resources proactively to address a hypothetical problem when there are demon­strably real ones in need of attention is difficult. Even when there are convincing signs of an emerging crisis, harried policymakers are still inclined to focus on man­aging the problem on their desks rather than the one still buried in their in-boxes. By the time the danger signals are unavoidable, the opportunities for early preventive action may have passed or the remaining options may seem either ineffective or too risky, further compounding the political inertia.”

What resources should policymakers commit in response to Direct First Contact? The most important could be a network to disseminate factual information while also dispelling misinformation. Direct First Contact would create quite a bit of fear and fear in the age of the Internet means fast-moving rumors. Governments would need to work together to establish a system to keep the public informed and calmed. That is not likely to top the agenda of worried national leaders in the wake of a Direct First Contact event. And it goes further than just public information: an entire network would have to be established to handle the needs of First Contact, beyond obvious military concerns. We would have to decide how the relationship between humans and aliens should proceed. We would need to determine how information would flow from aliens to humans, and if human gatekeepers were needed to prevent chaos in our institutions because of that information.

The problem is that none of this infrastructure exists. It would have to be built from the ground up and it would have to be constructed quickly. Humans can be incredibly responsive in times of crisis. The big question is whether the fear and awe that would be an inherent part of a Direct First Contact situation would so distract us that we would descend into chaos before we could establish a framework for response. Making use of current institutions, such as the United Nations, would be critical. But perhaps the most important part of the response would be calm world leaders working together across international boundaries to do what is best for the human race in the short term, and for future generations.

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Extraterrestrial First Contact: What Does a Virus Have in Common with Aliens?

The human response to the spread of the coronavirus named COVID-19 provides some interesting examples of the importance of communication during a crisis and the danger of misinformation. What does that have to do with Direct First Contact with an extraterrestrial civilization? Plenty. The epidemic is an event of worldwide significance drawing much attention. Communication is important so that hospitals and health agencies can respond. The lack of communication in China in the first few weeks of the epidemic, and in fact the suppression of communication, may have aggravated the problem by slowing response. Now health organizations are dealing with the dangers of misinformation. Those broad challenges could be issues in a Direct First Contact event.

The United Nations and World Health Organization are trying to counteract COVID-19 misinformation with a new coordinated public relations effort. Some of the rumors about COVID-19 include that it was produced by a nation as a weapon and that it can be stopped by eating garlic. Rumors are dangerous. If people are busy eating garlic, thinking that it protects them from the virus, they may not be doing the things they should be doing, such as washing their hands regularly. The more toxic rumors, such as COVID-19 being a bioweapon, spreads fear and distrust of authorities. And that makes it tougher for those authorities to respond to the outbreak in order to protect the public.

You can imagine the rumors that would fly during a Direct First Contact event. Social media sites across the globe would be flooded with rumors and misinformation. The UN response to misinformation in this health epidemic can provide a road map for possible human response during a Direct First Contact event. I often look at crisis events through the lens of alien First Contact. It may be our only hope in trying to plan for such an event. And I realize that the discovery of a far-off alien signal would be much less of a safety and public relations concern. However, Direct First Contact, where aliens come to our solar system to say hello to humans, would provide both excitement and anxiety in the human population, similar in many respects to a global public health threat. It’s impossible to say how Direct First Contact may occur, if it ever does occur, but we can study human events to see how humans may react and determine what may be necessary in response.

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Extraterrestrial First Contact: The Problem with Human Governments

Perhaps the biggest challenge for visiting extraterrestrials in a Direct First Contact event would be the human system of governance. There are currently 195 countries on planet Earth. Despite extensive global interaction, and many alliances, those are 195 sovereign nations, all with different wants and needs. Communicating with one government would inevitably lead to conflict between nations. It would also cause distrust and that is something that could impact a relationship between aliens and humans for many generations. The United Nations has 193 member countries, so it does represent the great majority of humans. However, the UN has limited power and constrained duties. Contacting the UN would seem like a logical choice for visiting extraterrestrials, but that depends on their agenda.

Humans could be manipulated by playing nations against each other. Aliens could negotiate an alliance with one nation and then enter into talks with the rivals of that nation. While that is a possibility it would only make sense if there was something aliens wanted from humans. A Direct First Contact scenario is defined as extraterrestrials visiting our solar system. To accomplish that they would need technology far beyond anything we currently have. So, it begs the question- what would they want or need from humans? The first idea that comes to mind is control. If extraterrestrials were concerned about humans traveling out into the universe they could attempt to thwart that endeavor by keeping us busy at home. Manipulation, and eventual conflict between nations, could keep us quite busy. The time and resources needed for space exploration could be squandered on in-fighting. Such machinations would take a lot of work. Extraterrestrials would probably be better off destroying Earth outright, if humans were considered a threat.

If extraterrestrials had altruistic intentions they would need to be very careful in how they communicated with humans. Even the United Nations approach would be difficult due to the distrust some nations have with the UN, the United States especially. Just gaining a consensus in the UN Security Council would be difficult due to heightened tensions between those member nations. However, it seems the only logical path forward, if aliens were interested in a long-term relationship with humans.

If aliens would want a positive relationship with humans they would be wise to take a straightforward approach: tell humans exactly why they are saying hello and what they expect from the relationship. Transparency and honesty would be important for extraterrestrials in a First Contact situation. Such terms may not apply to alien society, but if extraterrestrials did their homework, they would know those things mean much to humans.

We are a complicated bunch. Our international relations are often a mystery to even our experts. It is a situation that is also changing continuously. Visiting aliens would be advised to keep their approach simple and deal with all humans at once, rather than get pulled into the global fray.

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Extraterrestrial First Contact: What We Would Want From Them

As a human, I have a few thoughts on how I would hope extraterrestrials would behave during a high-information First Contact event in our solar system.

Be clear. First Contact would be a stressful moment for humans, especially if the extraterrestrials arrive in our solar system. I think humans would want a clear reason for why aliens are saying hello and what their agenda is in making contact with us.

Be honest. This may be just a human characteristic, but we prefer beings to say exactly what they mean and act accordingly. Dishonesty would be the quickest way to harm a relationship with humans.

No mystery. Humans will concoct enough conspiracy theories and misinformation on their own. We don’t need mysterious alien communication to make it worse. Please be straightforward.

Let us know what you want, right away. Don’t keep humans in suspense. It seems unlikely that beings would travel to our solar system without a reason. Let us know why you are here and what you expect to happen.

Don’t be threatening. Human governments would be on high alert if First Contact occurred in our solar system. We would feel threatened. If that is not your intention, please do everything you can to show us that you are peaceful. Avoid confrontations and clearly state any actions you plan to take, well before you take them.

Don’t interfere with our institutions. Aliens could manipulate international relations to achieve power. They could attempt to influence governments or other human institutions. This would ultimately be perceived as a great threat. Please work with all humans and all countries collectively, and do so openly. Transparency would be critical to success.

Respect our Neighborhood. Our solar system is our neighborhood, please respect our right to have a safe territory.


Respect our right to self-determination. Humans pride themselves on independence. Allow us to decide how First Contact will progress and how much or little interaction we would prefer.


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Extraterrestrial First Contact: Higher Ed and the Search

Higher education institutions- colleges and universities across the globe- are an important part of our human system of knowledge. Not only do they provide training in many academic disciplines, they teach people how to learn. Higher Ed institutions also support research that is fundamental to our scientific system. So, should higher education devote time and energy to the consideration of extraterrestrial life? It is an area called astrobiology and has many scientists and researchers involved. National space organizations, such as NASA, conduct research in astrobiology. The study of, and search for, extraterrestrial intelligence is another matter entirely. It suffers from a lack of funding, especially from government sources.

Studies show that many humans believe that extraterrestrial intelligence exists in the universe. A 2017 survey by an organization called Glocalities reached 26,000 thousand people in 24 countries. The results showed 47 percent of respondents believed that extraterrestrial intelligence exists elsewhere in the universe. So, why wouldn’t SETI research get more funding and respect? The answer is, of course, the ha-ha effect. People who consider such things are viewed as odd, at best, and crazy, at worst. The surveys show that may be primarily an institutional problem, not a public perception. Institutions are worried that their reputation will be tarnished by supporting SETI research.

The academic leaders in the search for extraterrestrial intelligence and the understanding of issues connected to the discovery of extraterrestrial intelligence often stand alone. If they are lucky they have the support of an astrophysics or astronomy department at their institution. But it is also likely they are fighting each and every day for respect and funding. Researchers say it is a career risk to pursue research involving extraterrestrial intelligence.

The big dog in the university study of SETI (Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence) is U-C Berkeley. Cornell University, MIT, Harvard, Arizona State University, and Ohio State University also play large roles in research. But there are not many U.S. institutions that openly support significant SETI research. Just look at the reaction the chair of the Harvard Astronomy Department received when he suggested scientists consider the possibility that a large object traveling past Earth, and with an origin outside the solar system, might have been created by extraterrestrial intelligence. Dr. Avi Loeb didn’t say Oumuamua was created by extraterrestrials. He merely suggested that we consider the idea and look for scientific evidence to support or refute the claim. In the end, that evidence proved to the contrary. But the simple suggestion that academics widen their perspective to consider the possibility of extraterrestrial intelligence provoked a huge backlash in the scientific world.

I understand the fear. There are many people who espouse theories about extraterrestrial intelligence without any facts to support those theories. And if they do have facts they are from less than credible sources. Still, is it wise for us to let fringe groups impact how the wider scientific community does research and considers new ideas?

It was heartening when Penn State University announced last year a graduate class in the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence. The class is now officially in the college catalog. And Penn State, under the leadership of astronomy and astrophysics professor Jason Wright, is taking another bold step with the formation of PSETI Center: The Penn State Extraterrestrial Intelligence Center. It is envisioned as an academic hub for SETI research, learning, workshops, and conferences. It is something SETI researchers have been hoping would happen for many years. As Scientific American reports, there are only seven people who have received PhDs based on SETI research.

I understand that there are many other academic fields and specialties that are more important to humans right now. We are experiencing what I would call a “pants on fire” moment. What I mean by this is that when your pants are on fire it’s tough to consider things that are less immediate. Our pants on fire moment is dominated by climate change, environmental collapse, bacteriological risks, war, political divisions, and a fierce worldwide immigration debate. However, it must be pointed out that if we do contact extraterrestrial intelligence someday, and if that intelligence is able to communicate with us quickly, it would be also be a pants on fire moment for humanity.  It seems prudent to spend at least a tiny amount of time and energy to prepare ourselves for the possibility.
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Extraterrestrial First Contact: Too Many Humans?

I notice it most when I drive: everything is so congested these days. I took a trip into downtown Nashville the other day and it compared to my traffic nightmares in Boston and New York. It was a far different experience from when I first moved here 15 years ago. I could blame it on the population boom in the city or the increase in tourists, and certainly those are issues impacting traffic, but congestion is a problem for many places here on Earth. The primary reasons are simple: there are more humans on the planet and those people are increasingly living in cities.

The numbers are staggering: the world population increased by 400 percent in the 20th century. It doubled from 2.5 billion people in 1950 to five billion in 1987. There are many factors driving that trend, aside from more people making more people. There has been a decline in infant mortality and an increase in life expectancy. Those are good things, of course. Another positive is that thanks to birth control, the percentage of increase in the world population has been decreasing since the 1960s. Still, the United Nations projects that by 2100 there will be just over 11 billion humans on the planet. There is also a rise in urbanization. Rural areas are frequently left out of economic growth and that causes people to move to cities. In 1800 three percent of the world population lived in cities. Currently 55 percent of the world population lives in an urban area. That is expected to increase to 68 percent by 2050.

The population of Africa is estimated to double by 2100. That figure may be unsustainable, meaning that many Africans may have to migrate to other countries to survive. Immigration fuels a non-cooperation sentiment that is currently evident in the United States, Australia, and Europe.  You can call it nationalism, but that may be too simple a term. Studies of nationalism stress that such movements are often made up of many different components. Florian Bieber points out that two causes of protectionist behavior are polarization and marginalization of large segments of the population. Bieber’s 2018 article in the Journal of Ethnopolitics suggests that nationalism is indeed undergoing a surge in many countries, but the reasons for such reactions are not always the same. Many public sentiments that are actively categorized as nationalistic may be a more complex reaction to changes in society. Population growth is going to cause more change.


The ironic part of this discussion is that many first-world nations will need more people soon. Japan is already facing a population decline problem and the United States and Europe are not far behind. Population decline can be dangerous for growth-based economies. It would seem that immigration could help to solve the problem, however that will depend on our ability to accept the change that accompanies immigration.


The number of humans on the planet is directly tied to Climate Change. Each and every person has a carbon footprint in many different ways. Thousands of scientists recently participated in a report in the Journal Bioscience that calls Climate Change an emergency, and directly ties human population to the problem.

I believe that these stresses and strains are part of the consideration of extraterrestrial contact. How so? Human reaction to alien First Contact will likely be tied to how we feel about our own world. Problems relating to over population and urbanization dictate the public perception of other issues, such as protectionism, national politics, and international relations. If we are in conflict with each other, it will be tough to have a thoughtful dialog about moving forward in a new relationship with aliens. Xenophobia and religious fundamentalism would almost certainly play a part in the human reaction to First Contact. Even if the majority of the human population were to view such an event as positive, many fringe groups would have a negative perception.

What can we do? Clearly we have important issues in human society to tackle whether or not aliens ever become part of our reality. However, if First Contact does occur someday, understanding the cultural, political, and religious climate here on Earth will be important to determine how best to move forward. Even the most vehement reactions to extraterrestrial contact may come with reasonable concerns. Groups that already feel marginalized may feel more so. People with low incomes could be worried that First Contact will leave them behind economically. In the wake of First Contact, world leaders, analysts, and the media will have to listen carefully to many different people, in many different countries, to get beneath surface level reactions, and find what human issues may be driving negative perceptions towards aliens.

Many people hope that communication with extraterrestrials could help us solve our problems here on Earth. The sharing of technology could help, if handled carefully, and if aliens want to share. However, First Contact, if it includes significant information sharing, will also increase stresses already inherent in human society. The first weeks and months after such an event could be a tumultuous time in human history.

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Extraterrestrial First Contact: Top Ten Challenges for Humans

Everyone loves a good top ten list. While I would be hesitant to call the topics on this list good- here are what I would call the top 10 challenges for humans and a look at how extraterrestrial interaction with high-information sharing could help in overcoming those challenges. Or not. With an emphasis on not.

Clean Energy Needs

Technology requires power. Developing countries need more power. The US Government predicts that the world demand for energy will increase 56 percent by 2040.  Fossil fuels supply 80 percent of world energy. While renewable and nuclear power production is growing by 2 percent a year, it’s not anywhere near enough to keep up with demand. The burning of fossil fuels has a major impact on climate change. The eventual depletion of fossil fuels could lead to serious conflict. That’s why energy is the number one concern. If we do make contact with extraterrestrials someday, insight into their energy technology would probably be at the top of our “ask” list. However, it is not likely that we would easily understand alien science. It could take years of communication for alien advice to do us any good. Our science is likely to be very different from extraterrestrial science. Merging the two, if the aliens were even willing to share, could be a long process. Even then, we need to consider the dangers of such information sharing- including how it could harm our civilization.The best bet could be to have aliens look at our technology and provide ideas for improving our techniques in areas such as nuclear fusion and traveling-wave fission. 

Climate Change

Humans finally seem to be grasping the enormity of climate change. It currently impacts our weather, causing rippling effects across the planet for humans and nature. Sea level rise is becoming a major concern in many nations. And yet we have done little to respond. This was brought to the forefront recently at the UN. The primary actions driving climate change are the burning of fossil fuels and food production. The changes needed to tackle these issues will be hard on everyone. They will require a major investment of money and people-power, and significant lifestyle adjustments for humans. Even if aliens did help us with ideas on how to create clean energy, there would still need to be massive changes to cope with the mess that we have already created. It's such a complicated set of Earth-specific challenges that it is unlikely alien technology could help much. We could ask for advice on how to change our atmosphere. Perhaps alien scientists would have a method for removing carbon dioxide? Unless it was a quick fix, humans would still need to deal with the current problems created by global warming.

Ecological Collapse

Climate change and other human-caused environmental impacts are causing many species to go extinct. Some are calling it ecological collapse. The attention to the subject has tended to focus on mammals. The bigger issue may be insects. Scientists report a decline of more than 75 percent in insect biomass across nature areas in Germany between 1989 and 2016. Insects are part of the foundation of our biological world. Another study shows a massive decline in the number of birds in North America. Our environment is a fragile network of species working in concert. When species go extinct in the insect world there is a direct and immediate impact on the entire ecosystem, and that includes agriculture. It is unlikely that extraterrestrials would have ideas to help us with our ecology. It is specific to our planet. We have been studying Earth ecology for hundreds of years. The problems caused by the extinction of species will be ours to solve.

Nuclear War

It is a sign of our times that I put the threat of nuclear war behind these other challenges. It is just as dangerous a situation as ever. The other challenges have simply surpassed it in the level of threat. I don’t see alien interaction helping much in the area of nuclear proliferation. If anything, we would run the risk of hawks wanting to put nuclear weaponry into space to protect us from extraterrestrials.

Conventional Warfare

Alien First Contact, especially high-information contact, could create many stresses on human society. In the worst case scenario this could lead to war between nations. The most important part of any alien contact strategy would be to have all nations involved in the process and to quickly resolve problems as they arise.

Famine and Illness

Climate change and ecological collapse could easily move famine and illness to the top of the list. This is another area where humans will be on their own. Aliens would be unlikely to have advice about human agriculture. Illness is becoming a bigger issue with the rise of superbugs. Our overuse of antibacterials has created drug resistant strains. This is rapidly becoming a huge dilemma in developing countries, such as India, and the threat is growing in many other nations. Human science will need to get us out of this one, as well.

Human Migration

The movement of humans is already a source of major conflict in the world. It is likely to grow worse as climate change renders some areas of the Earth uninhabitable. We will need to work together to solve all of these problems. The movement of humans from one country to others will be a tough one to negotiate. Aliens wouldn't be able to help us with human migration. As with all human social dilemmas in the wake of alien First Contact, it would be our problem to solve.

Population Growth

Despite a decline in population growth, the UN projects that there will be more than 11 billion humans on the planet in 2100. That makes many of the other issues on this list much tougher to solve. Once again, this is something we would have to deal with on our own. One interesting side note- countries such as Japan may be facing a dangerous decline in population in the coming decades. There could be a solution found in human migration, if we can manage to put up with each other.

Repressive Governments

Repressive governments, and democratic governments becoming isolated from the international community, will be significant impediments in the quest to overcome the challenges I list here. Once again, there is not much aliens could or should do about our governments. In fact, we would want to make sure extraterrestrials didn’t interfere in any of our institutions.

Cybercrime

The wide-scale problems caused by cybercrime include everything from the hacking of business and government computer networks to interference in elections. It’s the latest example of how our technology can quickly be used to hurt us. Perhaps aliens would have some insight for how to better protect ourselves, but once again, the human Internet is likely a unique creation. We will probably have to solve these problems on our own.

Conclusion

As you can see, I don’t think that alien information would help in solving most of these human challenges. In the long-term, there could be some technological benefit from interaction with extraterrestrials. In the short-term, such a relationship would likely create more challenges than benefits. That does not mean that we should stick our collective heads in the sand in hopes that aliens will go away. The revelation of First Contact would be an inevitable part of the growth of humanity. If handled correctly, it could be an exciting step forward. Such steps do not come without conflict.

There is powerful part of alien First Contact that I have left out- the impact to the human perspective. First Contact could lead to a better understanding of our role in the universe. Perhaps we would then view people from other countries, and humans from other races and cultures, as not so different from ourselves. That could create better international cooperation. The key will be how leaders react. If they rise above the fray, and help humans to see the big picture, we could benefit greatly from First Contact. If they fail, and lead us into greater conflict, we could suffer for many generations to come. All of the issues on this list would continue to get worse. So, how do average humans make a difference? They will need to stand up and be heard. If the majority of people on the planet press for positive change in the wake of First Contact, leaders will be forced to listen. First Contact could be an opportunity for humans to choose a new path forward.

Photo by Srikanta H. U on Unsplash