Extraterrestrial: Human Social Dynamics Post-First Contact

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Humans join together in a variety of ways. The interactions and inevitable conflicts between those groups are the provenance of sociology. Social structure and individual agency are the principles of the study. While this may seem like a stretch now for consideration in the area of interaction with extraterrestrial intelligence, I think it could become one of the most important areas for study should alien First Contact ever occur.

There are very few social scientists considering such human social ramifications in the wake of First Contact. Douglas Vakoch of the SETI Institute in Mountain View, California has written and edited a number of works on the subject of human interaction with extraterrestrials. While much of his work is centered on the concept of human messaging, he has gone further afield to consider the consequences of alien interaction on human society.

In a most basic sense, we can go back to Social Network Analysis to see how the power of relationships joins humans together. That web of group affiliations can grow larger and larger, eventually impacting politics, governance, economy and science. Group behavior would be extremely important in the wake of First Contact, because different groups will react to alien contact, well, differently. For some groups First Contact could pose a threat. Other groups could see opportunity. We can try to imagine some of these scenarios. Some religious groups could feel that First Contact is a threat to their religious beliefs or a sign of apocalypse. Business networks could see a potential for new scientific information that could lead to new technology and thus economic opportunity. Institutions could feel threatened in terms of their involvement in alien contact. The leaders of smaller nations may feel like they will be left out, as the super powers move in to control alien contact.

Such possibilities consider what we already know of our society. In plain fact, because we have nothing to compare to the impact of First Contact, there may be the development of new social groups and networks that arise from the discovery of extraterrestrial intelligence. How great these changes could be seems to depend on the amount of information traded between humans and extraterrestrials. A large amount of information trading could bring great change. While little information, or much more likely, slow information trading (especially if we are communicating across the vastness of space) would bring lesser change.

No matter what the case, the impact of extraterrestrial contact to human social networks is important, because it will decide how humans react to First Contact and what actions humans take. Do we react in fear and try to hide from extraterrestrial intelligence? Do we react with great joy and attempt as much interaction as possible? It seems likely this will be a significant conflict.

Why worry about this now, since we have absolutely no evidence that extraterrestrial intelligence exists and that such alien societies would have the technology needed to communicate with us? Speculation about what conflicts might arise in the wake of First Contact provide a road map that can be used to help develop a cohesive plan of reaction. If we have considered what conflicts might exist and how to better mediate those conflicts, we will have taken an important step to ensuring that humans get the best possible result from alien contact.

It’s time that we move beyond the shallow special effects of Hollywood depictions of alien contact and begin to consider more pertinent matters. What will we do and how will we do it? These matters may decide the fate of humanity for hundreds of years after First Contact.

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Extraterrestrial Contact: Embracing the Weird

You could call it the ultimate exercise in diversity acceptance. If we have trouble understanding and accepting other races and cultures here on Earth, how would we handle extraterrestrial First Contact? Perhaps the most important step would be overcoming our expectations.

We have spent most of human history trying to conquer our surroundings. We seek to control our environment through agriculture, technology and science. We have expectations of how living creatures should live and sometimes its well apart from what nature has designed. There was an interesting article in the New Yorker recently by Elizabeth Kolbert called “Recallof the Wild”. She describes a nature preserve in the Netherlands that seeks to recreate a paleolithic ecosystem. As Kolbert describes it’s just the latest attempt at “rewilding”. Now, clearly this project shows human attempts to control and shape the environment. It also provides a flip-side to that idea. The ecologist largely responsible for the Oostvaarderolassen, as the preserve is called, has attempted to introduce species similar to those that would have been found in a Paleolithic ecosystem in that area of Europe. The idea is to let the introduced animals reproduce and settle in the nature preserve without much interference from humans. That has lead to die-offs, especially in the winter. Kolbert describes Dutch TV stations showing video of animals starving to death. It’s part of the natural process but one that humans find it hard to accept. There was outrage among many in the Netherlands. One could argue that a man-made ecosystem should have man-made controls to help prevent such harsh natural die-offs.  They have suggested her culling by shooting animals unlikely to make it through the winter. However, the entire debate shows our attempt to humanize nature. Humans like to see nature as a pastoral setting. We want to see the abundance of biological diversity, but we want it to behave as we think it should. Natural behaviors and outcomes can be brutal and sad from our perspective. We can’t truly accept that the natural system works that way. We even call nature “Mother Nature” in an attempt to anthropomorphize the natural environment.

So, what would we do if we were to meet aliens some day? It seems likely that we would make judgments about their appearance, actions and society based on our human characteristics. That makes sense- we have no other lens to consider extraterrestrial intelligence. However, that lens could also be problematic. If we have trouble accepting the brutal side of our own natural environment, how would we accept beings from a vastly different environment? Would we think less of them because they had characteristics that we consider unacceptable?

Extraterrestrial contact with intelligent beings would require a great deal of diversity understanding. We would need to set aside our human expectations and learn about aliens in an objective way. This may be fine for the academic community, which is used to considering challenging ideas as part of the job. For other humans it could be quite tough. The appearance, culture and actions of aliens could be off-putting. That could lead to public resistance to diplomatic relations.

A certain amount of caution from the public is to be expected and would be quite healthy. The last thing we would want to do is consider aliens to be better than us and seek to transform ourselves to better fit their way of being. There has to be a middle ground of learning and understanding, while also protecting who we are and what we hold important in our civilization. It will be up to world leaders, academics and scientists to establish this path and help the human race stay on course. There may be Oostvaarderolassen moments when it comes to what we learn about extraterrestrials. It’s critical that we keep learning and don’t let our human perspective get in the way.

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Extraterrestrial Contact: Alien Agenda

I know, I know…the phrase alien agenda sounds like a paranoid conspiracy theory worthy of a bad made for TV movie.  In reality though, I think it’s something that needs to be taken seriously if high-information First Contact ever does occur. I bring up the concept of alien agenda in order to expand on the idea of First Contact motivation. 

Motivation is something I have discussed frequently on this blog. If First Contact occurs because extraterrestrials are simply responding to our electromagnetic signals beaming through space, their only motivation might be to say hello. However, if an extraterrestrial civilization initiates First Contact there will probably be a more complex reason for them doing so.  If they didn’t have a reason for contacting us, then they would simply leave us alone, which could very well be the current situation.

A motivation naturally leads to some sort of agenda for carrying out what they hope to accomplish with First Contact. Their objective, and the subsequent agenda of First Contact, could be quite benign. It could be a simple matter of scientific curiosity. They could also be trying to educate us, enlarge our perspective or make us aware of a danger. The agenda could be more controlling in nature. They may want to impact how we handle technology or treat our environment. Perhaps they think we should change our religions, or even our forms of government. How controlling are they? Do we consider it interference? How do we make sure we control the situation? What if we don’t agree with them? I think these are all legitimate questions in any First Contact scenario.

We can’t afford as a civilization to head into such a dramatic set of events in a naïve manner. Caution and careful consideration would be critical. True critical thinkers will of course point out that all of these possibilities are anthropomorphic.  It’s quite possible that extraterrestrials would have a motivation, an objective and agenda that we cannot fathom.  They might understand the universe in ways that we cannot even conceive of, and thus their motivation is beyond our comprehension.

So, do we give up and hide under the covers and hope that the aliens go away? I would be willing to bet that there are some in human society who actually suggest such a thing in the wake of First Contact. Clearly that isn’t a rational response. Once the veil is lifted humans will have no choice but to confront the challenges that come with First Contact. We can’t lose sight of the opportunities as well. While the alien agenda might seem negative in nature, it could just as well be positive. They may truly want to help us develop as a civilization and provide information that helps us better understand the physical world around us.

The only real solution to the alien agenda is questioning. We need to question every action and take a critical look at every step we take. It may not be rational to hide under the covers and hope they go away. It’s just as nuts to throw open our arms and let extraterrestrials do as they please. A little paranoia can go a long way.

Extraterrestrial Contact: Globalism and Conflict

I think it’s safe to say that high-information First Contact with an extraterrestrial civilization would change the future for humanity. The real question is how? Much of that would depend on the nature of the First Contact, the aliens themselves, their motives and perhaps most importantly, the type of information we receive. Just what would happen to our civilization would depend on a number of factors that are pure speculation on our part. There are reactions that we can better predict. They involve the very forces at work in human society today.

First Contact would present a great need for some sort of organized diplomacy on the part of the people of planet Earth. That would most likely occur at an international level. Right now, the only organization capable of carrying out such diplomacy would be the United Nations. All of this would lead to a conflict that I don’t think has been well-considered yet: globalists versus the opponents of globalism.

You probably don’t think of yourself as a globalist. It’s kind of an odd term in the first place. It is popular with some on the political right. It’s defined in many dictionaries as a national policy that treats the entire world as a sphere for political influence. Primarily this refers to the United States. However, it can also be defined as placing the interests of the entire world above those of individual nations. It is this meaning that is most often used by conservative thinkers. It represents a concern that the United Nations and other global bodies will lessen the power of the United States.

How does all of this tie into First Contact? Let’s ask American Free Press writer Keith Johnson, who writes about the spat of popular media coverage about a journal article exploring First Contact scenarios, some of them negative in outcome (covered here a few weeks ago). Johnson basically says that liberals are once again preaching doom, this time in the form of alien invasion, to bring about world government and ultimately take away our liberties. My apologies for linking to a news outlet that is considered extremist in viewpoint by many, but don’t get the impression that the fear of globalism is a fringe view. It’s become a rallying cry of the Tea Party movement. President Obama is routinely criticized for being a globalist. Presidential candidate Michelle Bachmann frequently rallies against globalism. It’s a popular subject for evangelical Christians, as pointed out in a recent Mother Jones article (I had to balance the Free Press link). The worry seems to be that world government is a sign of the apocalypse and part of a movement towards secularizing the world and destroying Christianity. The “Left Behind” series of books and movies are perhaps the best known examples of this concern. The stories portray the rise of the anti-Christ as the United Nations Secretary General, who is increasingly given more power due to dire world situations. Christians, who arrive at the notion too late to be part of the rapture, ban together on Earth to fight back.

Globalism often gets wrapped up with globalization, which is more commonly viewed as a process that is occurring in the world economy, as nations increase trade through the reduction of tariffs and restrictions. Globalization is perceived as a widespread action toward economic interdependence due to technology and international relations. Interestingly, many on the left also fear globalization, because they say it’s allowing multinational corporations to form alliances to control the world economy and create widespread economic disparity. The World Trade Organization, the World Monetary Fund, the G-8 and the G-20 are frequently cited as enabling this corporate power grab, and they are the subject of many protests by leftist organizations. It is one area in which the far left and the far right could perhaps agree: big government and big corporations are dangerous for individual liberties. Both try to limit the power of individuals to be successful and prosperous. I can’t say I disagree with those concerns. Globalization may be inevitable, but how that globalization occurs will be a significant question. The rights of individuals need to be protected. How far you take those views is what can make them fringe in nature.

Globalism is usually viewed as an active movement to strengthen international authority, and weaken individual nations, especially the United States. For the critics, it’s a big step towards the infringement of individual freedom. The religious right perceives globalism as similar to the growth of government in the United States. They see any big government as a threat to individual freedoms, and secular government in general as a threat to Christianity.

Let’s get back to the extraterrestrials. Ronald Reagan said it best:

“I occasionally think how quickly our differences, worldwide, would vanish if we were facing an alien threat from outside this world.”

President Reagan was speaking to the United Nations and while he was using the concept to make a larger point about the need for international cooperation, it’s an idea that makes sense. And it doesn’t have to be an aggressive alien threat. Just the fact that there is at least one other civilization out there in the Universe would naturally bring humans closer together. At first this might not seem like a controversial idea and I would expect it to be a common theme After First Contact. Once the surprise wore off though, I would imagine that the anti-globalists, and especially the evangelical Christian community, would begin to perceive a new threat.

You might say that this would merely be a fringe issue, with no bearing on world politics. However, I think it’s naïve to think that evangelical Christian philosophies are limited to fringe groups. There’s a good possibility that the next President of the United States will be an evangelical Christian (again). What would be the reaction of that evangelical Christian President to First Contact? Would he or she be able to separate religious views from practical politics? Would the result be outright hostility to alien visitors? Evangelical beliefs are held by many powerful members of congress. How would they react?

Any measure giving the United Nations power would be perceived as a threat. That would include giving them the power to lead diplomatic relations with extraterrestrials. It would certainly be considered a threat if the United Nations were to lead the gatekeeping effort for releasing extraterrestrial information.

Sorry, I know this sounds like conspiracy theory. It’s really not intended to be that at all. It’s a practical examination of how key groups in this country, and across the world, might react to extraterrestrial First Contact. It’s something that I don’t think has been discussed. First Contact needs to be considered in a real-world environment. Earth is a complicated place with many competing beliefs. I think there is a very good possibility that First Contact could set up a confrontation between people fearing globalism and those pushing for a world response to First Contact. Would it be possible for these two factions to find common ground? Perhaps. However, it could also lead to severe turmoil here on Earth. How severe might depend on who is leading the charge on both sides.

Do I consider myself a globalist? I certainly believe that a global response to any future extraterrestrial First Contact is the only logical response. It is ridiculous to think that every nation on Earth is going to somehow establish separate relations with extraterrestrials, by-passing the United Nations. Giving the United Nations more power would be fraught with challenges. The U.N. has not been a very effective body in its history thus far. Leading extraterrestrial diplomacy and contact would be a huge job for the U.N.

I don’t advocate world government and I share the concerns of those who worry about large government infringing on individual rights. Government can be stupid and big government really stupid. We need just enough government to have a cohesive, fair and productive society. Anything more can become intrusive and wasteful. Government must be watched closely, forced to be efficient and effective, and limited in both power and scope. It must not be allowed to take away from individuality and the power of people to join together in communities that they determine: neighborhoods, churches, organizations and advocacy groups.

We need people fighting for individual rights. The tug and pull of the left and the right in this country is a necessary and important part of our society. It’s when fringe elements on either side try to hijack the system for their own personal beliefs, and personal gains, that the system becomes distorted and ineffective. It will be up to the sensible majority to pull humanity through a time of great debate After First Contact. That sensible majority is usually quiet. They will need to stand up to be heard loud and clear in the wake of First Contact.The future of humanity will depend on it.

Economic Interests and Control After First Contact

In a high-information First Contact scenario there would be plenty of money-making opportunities. New information can lead to new technology. New technology means profit, and in the case of extraterrestrial information, potentially huge profit. Now an extraterrestrial civilization may not want to share much, if anything, with us about science and technology. But even if they offer only minimal information that we can use, it is bound to have a massive impact on the world economy. For the most part I have ruminated over the potential challenges that information would create here on Earth from a governmental and institutional perspective. Blog reader Geoffrey has inspired a new line of thinking lately. He recently posted in response to the declaration of human rights entry I made several months ago- my rather naïve set of statements that I think we need to consider expressing to any extraterrestrials we might meet. My concern, as far-fetched as it may sound, has been extraterrestrial meddling in the human civilization After First Contact. Geoffrey thought it was interesting that we would ask more of the aliens than we do of humans. He is worried, as are most Americans these days, about recent economic turmoil and the underlying reasons for that turmoil. In particular, he points out that many self-interested groups have been manipulating the American financial system for their own benefit and to the detriment of the country as a whole. I agree with him in that assessment. I think that no matter what your political inclinations, most Americans could agree that decisions have been made, in terms of banking, trading and financial regulation, that have benefited a powerful few, while leaving the rest of us with dwindling 401-K plans, if we’re lucky, and unemployment and financial collapse if we are not so lucky.

It does beg the question. What would the powerful cadre of investment bankers, speculators and corporate leaders do in the event of First Contact?

I think that there would be two corporate reactions. The first would be much the same as the general global response- a period of being stunned. I doubt there is one major company on the planet that has considered how to respond to extraterrestrial information. Why should they? Right now it appears that there are no extraterrestrials for us to contact and if there are they could be hundreds of light years away.

The surprise of an extraterrestrial contact event would soon wear off and companies would start considering how to respond. On the speculation side of things, the stock market may reflect this reaction quite quickly as investors try to decide which businesses are likely to capitalize on extraterrestrial relations and information. Of course, until we know what information they would be interested in sharing with us it would be tough to decide who is likely to profit from extraterrestrial information. Perhaps the wisest investment would be with the companies supporting robust research and development wings, particularly in physics. Aerospace might be another logical choice. Even if the extraterrestrials would not be thrilled about sharing their interstellar travel technology, humans would most likely want to invest in satellites and other space monitoring technology for defense and science. We would suddenly be aware that there is much more out there than meets the eye and we would be keen to know more, both for safety and knowledge. Space will suddenly become the hottest frontier for corporate interests and for speculators.

All of this is expected and welcome in a free market. China and Russia would be sure to respond as well, and once again that is beneficial to the global economy. One positive outcome of First Contact could be a stimulating of the world economy. Needless to say, we could certainly use stimulation. Such a rush of new opportunities could also cause investment banks to loosen up the purse strings and start loaning out the piles of cash they are sitting on.

The real issue comes in the long-term. The development of legitimate business would be fine. What happens along the way could be the problem. Regulating information flow so that everyone on Earth has an equal chance in responding to opportunities would be essential. Big business may attempt to tie such opportunities to defense related industries and thus keep some development top-secret. There would likely be all sorts of efforts to take advantage of the new situation. This is a plain fact of a free-market society: big business is tied closely to governmental leaders and corporations spend a great deal of money, time and effort lobbying to make sure they get an inside track in anything that involves the government. Any attempts to coral extraterrestrial information and keep it available to only a privileged few would be detrimental to the global economy and, needless to say, morally wrong. It may sound like a speculative conspiracy theory, but I think we have all been naïve about how the financial game is actually played. Whether or not extraterrestrial information could be kept for a select few would be dependent on the type of First Contact, who that contact is with (government, media, and scientists) and of course what the aliens decide they want to do. After all, it’s their information and ultimately they would be in control.

Then there’s the flipside- corporate interests arguing for a free flow of information. I have said for some time that gatekeepers of some sort will be critical for information flow After First Contact. I think regulating information flow will be important to help us decipher that extraterrestrial information and make sure it doesn’t erode the foundations of our social, civic and scientific institutions.

I think an interesting and unusual alliance could be forged between free speech/open sourceware/free Internet folks and big business. If we do assign gatekeepers to control information flow After First Contact, both of those interests would be upset. They would want as much information as possible to be released, although the two groups would have very different motives. Big business will want as much opportunity as possible and that would come through information about the sciences and technology. They would likely be opposed to gatekeeping on a purely economic basis. The freedom of information folks will be upset that anyone is controlling information flow. This unholy alliance of freedom of information and big business would probably never gel as a concerted, joined effort, but the primary argument would be the same.

No one nation, or bloc of nations, should be allowed to control information After First Contact. It should be a global effort, involving all nations and with protections to make sure the powerful countries don’t subvert the process for their own interests. Transparency in process would be essential.

Any information that comes to humans from extraterrestrials would have to be considered a gift to all humans. However, that information flow needs to be controlled to help protect our institutions from being harmed. It will probably take quite a bit of work to even understand alien thought and logic, let alone decipher scientific ideas. The key is to set up gatekeepers who will not be subject to national or business pressure. Those gatekeepers would need to have careful oversight. And the entire process would need to be transparent to the point of causing boredom. Every meeting must be streamed on the Internet. Every decision should be tracked and monitored. The gatekeeping process would likely need a bureaucracy of huge proportions. I personally hate bureaucracy, but sometimes it’s necessary. It doesn’t have to be inefficient and ineffective bureaucracy. That will be up to us.

What Technology Demands of Our Society

We like to think of technology as providing tools for us to use. While humans do control technology, the growth also creates technological demands and institutional challenges. The most striking example is information technology. The demands and challenges are becoming more apparent daily.

Information is becoming democratized. Transparency is becoming a technological imperative. The complexity of the networks involved and the vast numbers of people with access to those networks are only part of the story. Many of the people who worked to create those networks have an ethos that believes strongly in transparency and free access. It’s what has helped keep so much of the internet free. Open source software and wikis are examples of how this philosophy has helped to drive the nature of our modern information technology.

People are using communication technology to band together in new ways, outside of the usual institutions of governments, religion and media. In Egypt it helped to fuel a revolution. The transparency that technology creates is becoming harder and harder for traditional institutions to squelch. The Chinese government had another reminder of the power of social media recently. People posted more than 26 million messages to a Chinese Twitter-like microblog called Sina Weibo, full of information about a high-speed train accident that the authorities had tried to prevent from being released.

Twitter, Facebook, and You Tube are just the latest trends. Wikileaks is an example of where things might be headed. The release of millions of pages of top-secret government documents from many nations was aided by a sophisticated system of servers, protected networks and technically savvy activists. It showed that the technology we have come to rely on can be used in ways that many people might disagree with. 

Transparency, no matter how much it is given lip-service by politicians, flies directly in the face of bureaucracy as we have known it for hundreds of years. Usually bureaucracy is controlled by a few and access is tightly restricted. When it protects our social security numbers and medical records we seem to appreciate such restriction. Transparency creates a disruption in the fundamental protective and restrictive nature of institutions. We may applaud the use of technology when it creates revolution in a dictatorship. When it jeopardizes the lives of soldiers, or threatens our collective interest, transparency takes on a dangerous tone.

Technology is proving more powerful than censorship and governments will need to realize this to stay relevant, and in power, in the next 50 years. The human race tends to move in fits and starts culturally. Our technology, however, is skyrocketing with new developments and new possibilities. Governments and other organizations will have to work hard to keep up and stay in control.

The demands of technology will only grow. The transparency movement may continue in ways far beyond our current imagining. If a technologically advanced extraterrestrial civilization was watching this unfold they would probably view such developments with great interest. They may have already experienced where we are ultimately headed and have an understanding of the dangers along the way.

The Greatest Gift for Humanity

Let’s face it: the happy view of extraterrestrial First Contact is a bit like waiting for Santa Claus. The more optimistic among us hope that extraterrestrials would shower us with knowledge, not only answering the mysteries of the universe, but also solving our energy and environmental problems. What we could gain from communication with an extraterrestrial civilization, as well as what could be jeopardized by that relationship, are matters of pure speculation. There is one thing that we could count on, and quite frankly it might be the greatest possible gift of all: new perspective.

Many of the problems facing humanity today are global problems. We’re about to hit a population of seven billion people and that’s expected to jump to 9.3 billion humans in 2050, according to new projections by researchers using United Nations data.

Extraterrestrial First Contact would give us new awareness of the fact that we are really a single civilization made up of many nations and cultures. The only way for a planet with seven billion people to move forward, especially given the challenges that all those people create, is as a single entity with closely interconnected systems of government, finance and science. Those interconnected systems are developing now and in ways we never could have imagined 50 years ago. Technology is the catalyst for this change, lead by communications and information infrastructure. Where we take it though, is up to the cultural institutions in our civilization. The heads of nations and our other cultural institutions need to have the vision to see where we are headed and prepare now for that future.

The best part of the greatest gift is that we can find that new perspective right now. We don’t have to wait for extraterrestrials to show up on our doorstep, if they even exist at all. Awareness can come now. It comes down to this: we are one planet, one people- citizens of the universe.

The Dangers Involved in Receiving Extraterrestrial Information

It’s easy to assume that receiving extraterrestrial knowledge, as a result of First Contact, is a good thing. While there may be benefits, there are also many serious concerns. Albert Harrison summarizes them in his paper “Networking with our Galactic Neighbors”, part of a Foundation For the Future report.

Overload: The danger that too much information will cause humans to miss the subtleties and overlook important ideas.

Culture Lag: The time that it takes human society to catch up to the new ideas revealed by extraterrestrials.

Lack of Understanding: There would be clear dangers in humans failing to fully understand the information and trying to reproduce technology. Mistakes could be disastrous.

Losing our Curiosity: If we are spoon fed the secrets of the universe (at least as known by this particular extraterrestrial civilization or group of civilizations) will we lose the initiative to explore and learn on our own?

All of these concerns raise the need for intermediation. A data dump of information would be incredibly tough for humans to decipher and could have many negative consequences. If the extraterrestrials are far in advance of us in terms of technological and social development, we may need to be schooled. The information would likely be complex and need explanation. Extraterrestrials would be the only ones capable of doing this. Whether they would want to educate us is another matter entirely.

How would we react to being students? Several authors in the Foundation For the Future report discuss the impact to the human psyche. It seems plausible that human society could suffer from a collective inferiority complex After First Contact. We could go from being the lone masters of the universe (at least in our own minds) to relative babies in terms of scientific knowledge and technological prowess.

The actual impact of First Contact could depend on how the entire process for diplomacy and knowledge transfer goes forward. In addition to safeguards through information gatekeeping, both on the part of extraterrestrials and humans, it would seem important to make the celebration of being human part of the larger context. We must learn to appreciate what we have and what we hold valuable as humans. Then we need to realistically understand our place in the larger scheme of things. One can only submit to being a student when they are confident in their talents and truly ready to listen and learn.

Technology, Finance and the Failure of our Cultural Institutions

If an extraterrestrial was to view life on Earth in 2011, what would they consider the most serious threats to our human civilization? Nuclear weapons? Damage to the environment? Religious differences? All of these are perfectly logical answers. I have another threat to add to the list: our rapidly developing information technology. The problem is not in the technology itself, the issue is with the inability of our slow-reacting cultural institutions to control that technology. Our tech wizardry is growing at an exponential rate and creating situations that our governments and financial institutions simply cannot handle. The recent global economic crisis is a good example of where this could be headed. Technology has allowed for increasingly complicated financial transactions and trading interconnected on a global scale as never seen before. Our governments however, did not fully understand what was occurring when the speculation bubbles grew and banks were taking serious risks. It was not just a problem in the United States. Many countries have been, and still are, experiencing disturbing speculation. Just witness the ghost cities of China, where massive speculative building projects serve very small populations. That bubble is just waiting to burst. Apparently, even in a controlled economy bad things can happen.

Governments did not take action in the early 2000s to reduce risk through management and regulation. They allowed the financial entities to make increasingly poor decisions. Throw into the mix the age-old problem of human greed and you have a particularly volatile situation. Bad mortgages in Florida quickly lead to unemployment in China. This is well illustrated in the recent movie “The Inside Job” and I am over simplifying to make a point. The movie shows that complicated financial trading and lack of substantial regulation, when combined with greed and self-interest, caused a massive earthquake in the world financial system. The problem is made worse by the rapidly expanding use of technology in world markets. We are not keeping pace with our machines. We unleash them on the markets and quickly find that one programming error can cause the U.S. stock market to plummet. Computers are no longer a tool in the financial system- they have become the puppet master of sorts. Human trading is a poor money maker. The faster the computer and the better designed the program, the more money that can be made. You don’t bet on a company actually creating anything. These days you let the computer trade in split second actions that treat the market, and business stocks, like a series of rising and falling waves.

The individual governments on Earth are having huge problems in trying to control the increasingly complex financial systems. Derivatives nearly brought the world to its collective knees for one primary reason (well, aside again from greed) - very few cultural institutions had regulators that fully understood them.

So, how does an extraterrestrial view all of this, if they happen to be watching? Humans have built interconnected systems of finance that can spread trouble like wildfire across the globe in a matter of days, if not hours or minutes. Yet we have no real global ability to regulate that financial action. Sure, we have some quasi-global entities, such as the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). The best these groups can hope to accomplish is better economic cooperation. Their main function seems to be helping third world nations by providing loans and advice

The G-20, or Group of 20, has made strides to set a new agenda in recent years and that is one positive outcome of the most recent global financial crisis. The group provides a regular forum for the 20 major world financial powers to discuss economic issues. It’s certainly a more international body than the exclusive and European-American dominated G-8. World leaders seem to recognize that the G-20 needs a more formal nature and hopefully one day actual rule-making ability. The real question is whether the movement towards more formality and power in the G-20 and other international groups is progressing quickly enough to serve the fragile world economy. 

The founding of the European Central Bank and the Euro currency also serve as a possible model for nations on Earth.The European Union was created to allow European countries to better compete as a bloc, rather than as individual nations, with the United States, China and other growing economies. Still, the supranational organization of the 27 member European Union is an important role model for future development and the first of its kind on Earth. It shows that nations can join together with aligned economic and political interests, working in concert, rather than working in competition. This can occur without the individual nations losing cultural significance and independence.

Our technology and interconnectedness makes us like a teenager given the keys to a Lamborghini sports car. We barely know how to drive and yet we have a technological machine that can go 180 miles an hour. The worst part is that the achievable speed of that technological machine will continue to skyrocket. Tomorrow we’ll be able to go 200 miles an hour and in a year 300 miles an hour. What are the chances that the still inexperienced teen will wreck the thing at those speeds?

Our cultural institutions are failing us. We labor under tribal arrangements, disguised these days as international politics, which go back centuries. We attempt to solve world problems with a haphazard and confusing set of alliances, counter-alliances, back-door deals and all out hostilities. It’s truly a wonder we’ve survived this long.

An informed extraterrestrial would have to give pause before saying hello. Could our fragile financial system handle such an event? Could international organizations step up to the plate and lead this fractious human civilization? Do we have the ability to be anything more than bickering tribes trying to sell each other goods and gain advantage in a confusing and raucous world market place? Take a few steps off the planet and you begin to see the challenges we face in the coming years. It’s a sobering view.

Collective Mediocrity or a Celebration of the Human?

Who do we become After First Contact? How do we perceive ourselves and other intelligent beings in the universe? Human diversity models may provide a framework for moving forward. The diversity initiative seeks to celebrate human cultures while allowing for differences. Diversity in action says: I celebrate my culture and yet I am interested in learning about your culture. Through dialog, we can respect, and hopefully enjoy, the cultures of others.

Does all that sound like consultant-inspired, touchy-feely, mumbo-jumbo? I’ll admit the rhetoric does get to be a bit much sometimes. But diversity is an important concept for humans, especially in a country as culturally rich as the United States. It helps us to grow stronger by exploring our differences. Those differences inspire creativity, new approaches in business and entrepreneurism.

Diversity has important implications for First Contact. It says that we can take pride in what it means to be human, while respecting, and hopefully enjoying, the culture of extraterrestrials. In all seriousness, what could be more important After First Contact? Understanding is the bridge to start a new relationship, assuming of course, that communication allows us to share such information.

The Foundation For the Future report “When SETI Succeeds: The Impact of High-Information Contact” spends a great deal of time examining the impact of First Contact on the collective human psyche, with special attention to the challenges presented if the extraterrestrial visitors are thousands of years further along in development than us. Albert Harrison has an article entitled “Social Comparison, Identity and Self-Esteem.” It may sound a bit esoteric, given the groundbreaking set of circumstances inherent in high-information First Contact. In reality, as Harrison points out, it may be one of the most important issues for human development After First Contact. Do we experience a feeling of collective mediocrity? In many human First Contact situations the less technologically advanced society is more likely to change, sometimes in drastic ways that undermine the cultural foundation of the lesser civilization. Harrison says that the type of ETI we encounter will decide our outcome. Are they overtly controlling or domineering? Do they provide us with much information and technology, essentially solving our problems for us and causing us to suffer from a type of learned helplessness?

The future After First Contact does not necessarily have to be this bleak. We can decide how we want to change. Comparing ourselves to ETI thousands, if not millions, of years more developed than us seems like a destructive waste of time. It’s not unlike humans comparing success: there will always be someone richer, more attractive and happier than you. Peace of mind means knowing who you are and not worrying about your status in relationship to others.

What could we do After First Contact? It would seem important to celebrate the distinctive elements of human culture. Reinforcing what we find valuable in being human could help protect our civilization. Controlling the rate of change, through careful filters in the dissemination of extraterrestrial knowledge, would also help. We would need to keep looking forward as a civilization to where we are going and where we want to be and not let extraterrestrials decide the path for us. We should determine the road forward based on our own needs and unique characteristics. An extraterrestrial civilization could certainly provide valuable insight into how we might progress, but ultimately it should be up to us to decide what we will become.

Harrison makes one other prediction in his article. He says the outcome for human civilization will be set in the first few decades After First Contact. If true, this would make it imperative for humans to respond quickly to the identity challenges After First Contact and set a self-guided course for humanity into the new era.

When SETI Succeeds: The Impact of High-Information Contact

I would like to correct a major omission in this blog. Over the years I have frequently bemoaned the lack of serious consideration of the implications for human society in First Contact. While I’ll still maintain that there is not nearly enough discussion, I have missed an important and comprehensive examination of the issue. In 1999 Allen Tough, working with the Foundation For the Future, put together a seminar in Hawaii that featured 16 scholars and their perspective of issues relating to the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence (SETI) and most importantly the aftermath of First Contact. Tough later collected the results of that discussion and the series of papers created for the seminar, in a publication titled “When SETI Succeeds: The Impact of High-Information Contact.”

It is one of the most insightful and wide-reaching explorations of the subject that I have found. The group of participants will be familiar to those who read this blog: Albert Harrison, Jill Tarter, Steven Dick, Paul Davies, Douglas Vakoch, John Billingham and Ben Finney, among others. And through the papers other noted writers such as Michael Michaud and Donald Tarter added their thoughts.

The importance of this particular seminar is that while it does touch on issues of SETI research methods, it is primarily focused on issues of human reaction and response to First Contact, both in the short-term and the long-term. Why do we care? Several of the seminar participants note that while there are protocols in place for researchers to handle the scientific aspects of First Contact response, there are virtually no plans for a wider societal response. In particular, the focus on high-information First Contact is important because it has received very little attention in the field of SETI research. High-information First Contact is quite different from the simple discovery of some engineered extraterrestrial signal that we don’t understand. High-information means that we gain knowledge from First Contact. Extraterrestrial information would have wide-reaching implications for human society.

In the paper “The Role of Social Science in SETI” several authors suggest a simple scale showing, much in the same vein as hurricane warnings, the impact of First Contact.

Force One: Knowledge that we are not alone, primarily in discovery of some form of extraterrestrial communication.

Force Two: Humans gaining scientific or technical knowledge from communication with an extraterrestrial culture.

Force Three: Direct interaction with an extraterrestrial culture leading to a long-term dialog.

While the authors maintain that Force One is the most likely scenario, the real challenges for humanity lie in Force Two and Force Three First Contact. They create the most disruption to human society and would cause the greatest change. How that change occurs and to what degree is a matter of debate. Several of the authors predict that a Force Three scenario would be deeply troubling for humanity and perhaps have primarily negative outcomes.

The call for action in this paper is for greater involvement in the SETI discussion by researchers in the social sciences, and in the areas specifically related to gauging how humanity actually perceives extraterrestrial contact and how humanity might react to such news. Social scientists could conduct in-depth surveys to try and better determine how humans might respond to certain First Contact scenarios. Most surveys conducted thus far have been shallow, mainstream media oriented and extremely narrow in focus. While many people use the results of those surveys to show that humans would not be perturbed by First Contact, that view seems questionable given the lack of examination of high-information First Contact scenarios and the threat implications of communicating in an active and engaged way with extraterrestrials.

Over the next several weeks I will take a closer look at some of the individual topics presented in the seminar and resulting publication. It is material well worth an in-depth look.

The Psychology of First Contact

Contact with extraterrestrials is more than just a scientific or social challenge. There will be psychological challenges for humans. Much would depend on the type of contact. The most profound impact would be in a Direct First Contact event, where humans interact directly with extraterrestrials. There’s not much written on the psychology of First Contact. One of the better books is "The Inner Limits of Outer Space" by John Baird. 

The psychologist posits that social communication with aliens will be modeled, at least from our perspective, on our own social interaction. No surprise there, modeling our behavior on what we have come to expect in human relationships is our only option- we simply don’t have any other frame of reference. For humans, and for the aliens, the relationship will be based on how each party views the other and perceives relative intelligence, social rank and knowledge.

Much of Baird’s book explores SETI based communication with extraterrestrials. He was part of a NASA study group on the issue in the 1970’s. However, his work does have application to Direct First Contact as well.

It has been expected that in a Direct First Contact scenario the visiting aliens would be more technologically advanced, which makes sense considering that we do not have the technology to visit them and by the very nature of the scenario they do have the technology to visit us. This would immediately place the relationship in a type of imbalance.

Baird suggests that while many scientists have used technology to set up possible comparison scales to extraterrestrials, a much better scale would be to determine how they think and how similar that thinking is to the human mentality. It is a bold suggestion and one that makes sense. Sure, technology will be a huge part of the discussion, but that very discussion rests on a foundation of communication and interaction. If the aliens think very differently from us the relationship will be harder to form. If they think more like us it will be easier. Science is only one way to compare civilizations. We would have a much stronger bond if they had some appreciation of the role of art and music in our society. If they have similar pursuits there will be a connection, perhaps one even stronger than science, due to the more personal nature of art and music and the deep connection of those activities to our culture.

There is a tendency for humans to view everything with an anthropocentric bias. Many prominent researchers have been arguing that our narrow definition of what could form biological life could interfere with our search for extraterrestrial intelligence. Baird was one of the first to broach the subject in the 1980s. It applies to Direct First Contact as well, as our focus on an anthropocentric view of communication could be extremely limiting in how we interact with alien intelligence.

Baird suggests that one way of helping us understand an extraterrestrial intelligence is by examining how humans perceive intelligence. Researchers say that humans have many different types of intelligence and no one measure is enough to judge the sum. Baird uses an interesting comparison in this argument, taking a look at how adults view the intelligence of a child. The very notion of growing up and gaining in knowledge is a given, but does it really make one more intelligent? You can argue that humans become more set in their ways as adults, less playful and less excited by new ideas. We can see those child-like attributes in some of the most successful older adults: a constant need for play with ideas.

Probably the biggest take-away from Baird’s book is the idea that First Contact would be an extremely complicated relationship from many perspectives. We would have to be prepared to take several steps back from our usual way of thinking and take in perspectives we have not imagined. The danger is that some humans will not want to spend the time or energy to consider such things. That could lead to knee-jerk reactions based on anthropocentric fears and judgments. If it’s simply a problem for the man or woman on the street that’s one thing, but what is the likelihood that our political leaders would be able to rise above this base level thinking?

Conspiracy Theory After First Contact

Conspiracy has been popular in American culture for years and the rise of the Internet has brought it to a fever pitch in certain circles. Nothing breeds mistrust like bad information. Bill Keller of the New York Times has an interesting piece in the New York Times Magazine about conspiracy, tracing the American obsession from President Kennedy’s assassination to the President Obama birth certificate frenzy. Keller points out that much of it seems to stem from a mistrust of authority, whether that authority is a government commission or the New York Times. The Internet provides fertile ground for self-made authorities who buck conventional logic and often reality.

Now I’m about to take the question a bit further than Mr. Keller would have intended. Can you imagine all of the nut bag crazy conspiracy theories that would circulate After First Contact with an extraterrestrial civilization? Keller points to a book by Mike Fenster called “Conspiracy Theories: Secrecy and Power in American Culture.” Fenster says that conspiracy is often a response to unusual events. I can’t imagine an event stranger than First Contact. In addition to that potent catalyst, humans will undoubtedly have to deal with the incredible load of conspiracy baggage that already exists concerning extraterrestrials: abduction, government collusion, secret societies and alien infiltration. If folks are already loony about extraterrestrials, and there is absolutely no credible evidence that extraterrestrials exist, what the heck happens if we have actual evidence that they do exist?

I would imagine that after a brief period of shock and awe, which will shut down most of the crazy conversation, the conspiracy bandwagon will grow new stories and crazier plots. The thing that will make it tough to refute the theories: the reality is already bizarre enough. If aliens actually do exist, is it that much of a leap to think they kidnapped and brain-mapped your cousin Clarence? And who’s to say they’re not abducting people and dissecting cows? The aliens? Like we’re going to believe them. How about a government commission? Oh, wait, let’s not go there. Perhaps the New York Times could investigate?

First Contact would fuel wilder and more robust conspiracy theories. The only possible hope is transparency. And it would have to be a brutal, bare-all type of transparency that keeps every decision and each action clearly in the public eye. That won’t be easy. It’s one of the reasons I suggest that an explosive and dramatic Direct First Contact event would be the best way for an extraterrestrial civilization to say hello in person. It bypasses government secrecy and goes straight to the people via the live media. This is an important distinction, not the behind the scenes, we don’t know what you’re leaving out or putting in media, but the live media. Events and actions need to occur in full public view and live television offers that ability in a way that no other medium can. Even with that approach there will be years and years of debunking and myth busting necessary and unfortunately the alien visitors would have to be front and center for that questioning. Sure, it’s rather annoying to say hello to a new planet and then be brought before some organization that will ask you if you have been anal probing the very beings you have just met. Annoying and necessary.

And I have one prediction that I know will stand up in any First Contact situation. No matter how transparent and no matter how many questions are answered there will always be new conspiracy theories and paranoia will fester for many, many years. It’s just the way some of us humans think and unfortunately my alien friends if you embark on a relationship with us humans you get all of us.

Proximity

In a dangerous situation the severity of a threat is often in direct relation to the proximity of the threat. An Earthquake in Japan creates the highest degree of threat for people who live in Japan and less so for those who live in Finland. A shooting incident is of primary concern for people close to the line of fire and less so for those who live in another neighborhood. The same could be said of First Contact. The threat, both real and perceived, would be in direct relation to proximity. If the aliens in question are 50 light years away, there is much less of a threat than if they are hanging out in Paris, France. Technology is important in these considerations as well. Do the aliens have the ability to travel here, and if so, how quickly?

In a sense, there is an insulation of distance when a disaster strikes or there is an external threat. Still, this blog examines the possible impact of Direct First Contact. That entails an extraterrestrial civilization showing up in our solar system and perhaps here on planet Earth. So, what can we predict in the way of human response to a Direct First Contact event?

There is, of course, no real answer to this question. There are too many unknowns and too many variables. However, we can take a look at how humans react to disasters here on Earth. Bagrow, Wang and Barabasi examine communication immediately after disasters to try and uncover a pattern of human reaction to large scale emergencies. In the March issue of the www.plosone.org journal they published a study that looks at “cooperative human actions under externally induced perturbations.” They scanned media reports to pick a bombing, plane crash and earthquake and then used cell phone records to chart communication activities. For a control group they took a look at similar cell phone records for large concerts and sporting events. The results, not surprisingly, show that proximity is the best indicator of the volume of communication following a disaster. In the bombing the spatial decay of the communication volume came to 2.38 kilometers. In the plane crash that increased to nearly 10 kilometers. In the earthquake it was 110 kilometers. Human communication immediately after a localized disaster is most important for those who could be most impacted. Proximity is the prime motivator.

A Direct First Contact event may start in the same fashion. If an alien spacecraft was to land in New Jersey, it seems likely that, at first anyway, the Jersey residents would be the ones most concerned. However, Direct First Contact has an element that is different from anything we have experienced thus far in human history. Direct First Contact would contain an element of threat for the entire planet at once. Just the revelation that we are not alone in the universe and that we really don’t know much about the new visitors creates a threat. What are their motivations? Can we trust them?

So, what of the human reaction? One would expect that if Bagrow, Wang and Barabasi were to conduct a similar study after a dramatic Direct First Contact event they would find cell phone communication patterns consistent with a large scale emergency- at first. The locations nearest the alien landing would experience the greatest amount of cell phone activity. I suspect though, that they would soon find a reverse effect. As the news would spread across the globe, the level of concern in all corners of the planet would grow greatly, with corresponding cell phone traffic increasing in an expanding pattern outward from the point of contact itself. It would be a pattern unlike anything we have seen. And of course communication is just the start of human reaction. What would happen next?

Recent surveys have found that humans polled about First Contact issues seem relatively nonplussed about the possibility. That term applies well in this case, because while it means unperturbed in the popular lexicon, it also means surprised and confused to such a degree that the person does not know how to react. I would suspect that this may be the immediate response to a Direct First Contact event. A period of stunned silence seems likely, as people simply try to comprehend the news and watch to see what happens next. Extreme reactions of civil unrest or hysterical response could come later, after people have had time to process the information and decide how it fits into their world view. Some may say it’s the end of the world. Others may view First Contact as a sign of religious significance. These people would probably be in the minority; however it is unlikely they would be a quiet minority.

Threat is certainly a legitimate concern in any First Contact event. Whether the aliens are light years away or just down the street, there is some degree of threat, especially perceived threat, until we know more about the situation. Information and education would be the key to keeping people calm, if indeed we should want to remain calm. Transparency would be essential. First Contact would have to be handled in a way that allayed fears and answered many legitimate questions.

I think the positive aspect of a dramatic Direct First Contact event is that it would draw all humans together in a collective living room of sorts. People would gather around televisions worldwide to see what happens next. While there have been many large world events that have brought people together, nothing would compare to dramatic First Contact. For whatever unrest such an event would create, it would also bring humans together in a way we have never experienced before. That common bond could be enough to sustain us through the great challenges that would come After First Contact.