Update: Russian scientists now call the signal terrestrial in origin. More here.
There's a sudden rush of excitement on the Internet about star HD 164595 in the Hercules constellation. An Italian scientist found a strange signal emanating from the star on May 15, 2016. According to SETI there have been 39 observations since that time, in attempts to replicate the signal. Nothing else has been discovered. So, why all the excitement? A blogger apparently got advance word of the search, details of which were due to be presented during a conference in September. Internet speculators and the mainstream media, including CNN, have jumped on board this week. While the stories themselves offer a more complete analysis, the headlines are rather excited.
Who knows? This could be what everyone has been waiting for- an actual signal from an alien civilization. But the only way scientists can begin to prove that is by finding the signal again, and again, and again. They are still looking in many frequency ranges and even for any possible laser light emission.
This is another example of how quick information can spread and the danger of that speculation. One can only imagine what would happen if scientists do make a discovery some day. This shows that it will likely come out prematurely and lead to rampant speculation. The difficult thing about speculation is that it could lead anywhere...so if there is some element of truth, it can be spun so many different ways people won't know what to believe.
What can we do? Pay attention to trusted sources. The folks at the SETI Institute in Mountain View California have been through this more than once. Seth Shostak is a good source for an educated, and well informed, scientific opinion. Just watch out in the mainstream media. I have already seen quotes from Shostak and colleague Douglas Vakoch, twisted around in reports that make things seem more exciting than they are- yet.
We need to have patience and let scientists do the hard and often tedious work that is required when there is an unexplained astral phenomena. Here's a link to the situation on the SETI Institute website. This is a recently updated link to the star HD 164595 Wikipedia page with a lot more about the sun and why this signal is so intriguing to SETI researchers.
Tuesday, August 30, 2016
Tuesday, August 2, 2016
Extraterrestrial Contact: Anyone Out There?
There are two basic schools of thought when it comes to the possibility
of intelligent extraterrestrial life in the universe. One group insists that
the “eerie silence” means that we are alone in the universe. We have been
listening for more than fifty years now and there has yet to be an alien signal
discovered. The other group insists that we have searched a tiny bit of the
observable universe and we have used technology that may very well be
irrelevant to extraterrestrials- the radio spectrum.
Lee Speigel with the Huffington Post writes about a new
effort to predict the possibility of extraterrestrial intelligence in the
universe. His story focuses on an Astrobiology journal paper by Adam
Frank and Woodruff Sullivan. They use new data from the search for exoplanets
to update the famous Drake Equation. Frank Drake sought to quantify the
possibility of extraterrestrial intelligence in the universe back in 1961. His
equation is still in use today. The Astrobiology paper, as outlined by Speigel,
suggests that the new exoplanet research be used to update the equation.
According to NASA, There have been 3,268 expoplanets discovered as of May 19,
2016. The Astrobiology authors extrapolation of this number is
rather astonishing to consider:
“Even if you are pretty pessimistic and think that you’d
have to search through 100 billion (habitable zone) planets before you found
one where a civilization developed, then there have still been a trillion
civilizations over cosmic history!” Frank wrote. “When I think about that, my
mind reels — even if there is just a one in a 100 billion chance of evolution
creating exo-civilizations, the universe still has made so many of them that we
are swamped by histories other than our own.” –Huffington Post
It’s quite a difference in perspective- either we are the
only civilization in the universe or there may be a trillion civilizations in
the history of the universe.
All considerations, with this little real information, is
basically speculation. Even with the scientific discovery of thousands of exoplanets,
we still don’t know enough about how life could develop outside of the Earth to
truly consider the possibility of life on another planet, or for that matter a
trillion planets. The article does provide some new ammunition for those
seeking extraterrestrial intelligence. The discovery of exoplanets and more
importantly, the nature of those exoplanets, allows us to now focus our search
in a way that we could not even five years ago.
We need to update the search with the continuing discovery
of exoplanets. We need to update our search strategies to get beyond the radio
spectrum. We need to keep searching.
Friday, July 1, 2016
Extraterrestrial Contact: Those Damn Aliens
Independence Day, one of the better marauding alien movies,
is back with part two. It has some people considering space defense. It’s not
an unreasonable topic, if you think alien civilizations exist and that they
have the ability to travel to Earth. A Forbes contributor, Bruce Dorminey, recently
took up the subject. He talked to physicists to discuss how humans might
prevent a sneak attack. Not surprisingly it all comes down to the technology available
to visiting aliens. If they travel at less than the speed of light they would
probably be detectable. If they know something about physics that we don’t know-
and can travel faster than the speed of light- we would be in trouble.
The other issue is space defense. Detection is one thing- but
what do you do next? People have suggested building space defense…usually
nuclear missiles in space. That is currently banned as part of an international
UN treaty for the peaceful uses of space. No one wants another country putting
nuclear missiles in space.
It’s unlikely anyone will spend money on what is probably
the biggest “what if” in human history. There is no evidence that intelligent
alien life exists, let alone that they have the technological ability to travel
here. This is just speculation now, but can you imagine the reaction if some
day we do discover intelligent alien life out there? I would suspect that there
would be an immediate call for detection and defense platforms in space. There
could even be a space arms race. We will need to carefully consider the
circumstances if that does occur. If the aliens are much more technologically
advanced than us- defense may be a moot point. And no matter what we would have
to consider the risk of putting missiles in space. Exactly who would control
them?
In the meantime, stick with the movie. I haven’t seen it
yet, but I would guess the humans win in the end.
Monday, June 6, 2016
Extraterrestrial Contact: Responding to Social Media Demands
It’s tough to keep anything secret these days. There are so
many outlets for information that news tends to be instantaneous. That’s a big
change from 1989 when the International Academy of Astronautics put together a
set of protocols for the detection of a signal from an extraterrestrial
civilization
Cathal O’Connell writes in Cosmos about a proposal to update those protocols. University of
St. Andrews researchers Duncan Fargan and Alexander Scholz suggest a speedier
process for public dissemination of news of an alien signal discovery. This is
a big difference from the current protocol, which calls for researchers working
together behind the scenes, to confirm that the signal is indeed of intelligent
origin before taking it public. The reason for the suggested change is simple:
it is likely someone in that chain of researchers would put it up on Twitter or
Facebook before it could be confirmed. The authors point out in their Acta
Astronautica article that the social media revelations could contain incorrect
information or be misinterpreted. It would be better to have an open release to
the public of preliminary information. Research to confirm the discovery can
follow.
Communication has changed significantly. It is critical for
researchers to consider those changes when it comes to announcing a possible
extraterrestrial signal or contact. I think this article points to a larger
issue. Transparency would be essential in any first contact scenario. It’s
important that correct information be available to the public as soon as
possible, so that speculation and rumors can’t overtake the facts.
The article brings up another interesting aspect of our age:
the dangers associated with revelation of extraterrestrials contact. O’Connell
writes that Fargan and Scholz suggest hazards for those making such an
announcement. The researchers could be subject to Internet based intrusions and
attacks.
Keeping up with the Internet and social media won’t be easy.
Speculation and rumors would likely fly no matter how much researchers work to
put out correct information. It’s critical to take into account the possible
reaction to news of First Contact now. When it happens there will barely be
time to think before the news has reached the entire world.
Monday, May 2, 2016
Extraterrestrial Contact: Politics and Space Aliens
I’ll just go ahead and say it this way: if aliens have any
plans to visit Earth they had damn well better keep an eye on our politics. I
know that is unfair, as most human political situations are a vast cesspool of
ego aggrandizement and power grabs. But despite the disgusting nature of the
subject, it would be important for extraterrestrials to consider. Political
matters offer an indication of the stability of governments. Governmental leaders
would be key decision-makers in the wake of a Direct First Contact event.
Let me wade hip-deep into the political muck by first
examining the current presidential race in the United States. If I was an alien
(I am not) I would consider the timing of my big hello. Would I want to make
First Contact when there is a lame duck U.S. president in office? Should I wait
for a new president to take command? The advantage of the lame duck president
is that they have very little to lose politically, hopefully enabling them to
act thoughtfully and make decisions based on the long-term well-being of the
U.S. and the world. A lame duck president also has experience with all sorts of
crises and many veteran cabinet and staff members. A new president has the
advantage of newness- they have not yet developed the network of enemies that a
veteran president has. A new president would also have more time to carry
through with an extraterrestrial policy.
The big issue during an election cycle is candidate
reaction. Presidential candidates are more likely to present brash ideas during
an election, in an effort to appeal to voting blocs. Candidates don’t have the
same responsibilities as a sitting president. Alien First Contact would be
wrapped up in a huge political debate in regards to our response, no matter
when it happens. That debate could be much more aggressive during an election
cycle.
The political situations in Russia, France, China and the
United Kingdom would also be important to consider. They are the other standing
members of the United Nations Security Council. They would likely have a large
role in diplomatic relations with an extraterrestrial civilization. Evaluating
politics in Russia and China might be tough for aliens. Much of the important
decision-making process is conducted out of the public in these two nations.
That’s not to say that behind the scenes political decisions don’t happen in
the United States, France and the U.K. But the nature of news coverage in those
nations, and less government control of the political process, makes it more
likely decisions will be made in public.
So, how do aliens go about evaluating the situations in
China and Russia? They would have to do what reporters around the world do when
examining the countries- get as local as possible with sources and know enough
about the nature of each government to understand what is really going on when
they make public announcements.
This could all be accomplished on the Internet. But it means
that extraterrestrials would need to take the time to study us, before saying
hello. I understand the argument could be made that aliens would not understand
or care to understand, our human political systems. However, I think that if
they have the technological means to travel to our solar system, they would also
have the ability to study and learn. The value in evaluating human politics is
simple: it can give you an indication of how various governments, and the
United Nations, might react in a Direct First Contact situation. This includes
military reaction and that’s a big one. You don’t want to scare leaders of an
unstable nation.
Another factor to consider is United Nations leadership. The
process is underway now to pick a new Secretary General. That position would be
critical in any First Contact scenario. The same thoughts apply- do you want to
say hello with a lame duck Secretary General or wait for a new Secretary
General to take office?
How would aliens take in all this information and could they
ever fully understand the human implications? That’s impossible to say. But we
humans do a good job of putting it all out there. There are thousands and
thousands of political blogs, academic works and other analyses of political
situations available on the Internet. An alien wouldn’t need to start from
scratch. There are plenty of humans evaluating politics and offering
insight. That does raise another
concern: lies and exaggerations on the Internet. Humans have enough trouble
keeping information on the Internet straight. How would aliens do it,
considering the fine points of human behavior might be hard for them to
understand? Let’s just hope the aliens take their time and study the cesspool
of human politics very carefully before they say hello.
Wednesday, April 6, 2016
Extraterrestrial Contact: Humor and Honesty
Many humans would be anxious about First Contact with an
extraterrestrial civilization, if it ever happens some day. A quick review of
First Contact fiction plots in popular media shows the anxiety quite clearly.
Books and movies have dwelled on the negative for decades. And there is a
possibility that First Contact could be a real problem for humans. However, it
seems more likely that First Contact would be a mixed bag of positive and
negative impacts. It also seems likely that many of the outcomes will depend on
how humans respond to First Contact. Negative outcomes may be due to negative
human reaction and have nothing to do with aliens. Managing those reactions will
be important in the wake of First Contact.
I think it would be important to maintain the “humanity” in
any First Contact event. That can be
accomplished with honest communication, transparency in action and the use of
humor.
Why humor? It’s a human way of relieving tension and acknowledging
fears, and could help to calm people. Serious matters would need to be handled
seriously, but there should be plenty of room in the process for humor. Such
techniques would, of course, depend on the nature of First Contact. If aliens
are reigning down missiles on Washington and Moscow, humor wouldn’t be such a
good idea. But in a more positive scenario, humor could serve to act as a reassuring
anchor for people watching First Contact coverage. Humor would remind them that
this is a human event and not the end of the world. Aside from relieving
tension, humor can help in communication. It is a way to address concerns and
counteract negative stereotypes with less confrontation than a more direct
approach.
Governments don’t do a very good job utilizing humor. Some
politicians have learned the value of the technique. And that’s an important
point. Institutions can’t show a sense of humor about a situation, but people
can. Humor, honesty and transparency will need to start with the major human
players in a First Contact situation. Hopefully, with good examples from those
individuals and good results, it could be a foundation for the process going
forward.
The most important part of communication would be honesty.
Humans have been trained by Hollywood writers to expect conspiracy in an alien
First Contact scenario. The best way to be honest is to be transparent. The
entire human population has a right to know exactly what is occurring at each
step in the process After First Contact. Meetings should be made public,
whenever possible. At the very least, closed door meetings should be summarized
for the public afterwards. This would not be easy to achieve without a
struggle. Governments often act behind closed doors when it comes to security
decisions. There would be many security considerations in a Direct First
Contact situation. Governmental leaders would need to weigh their options carefully.
The benefit of having a closed door meeting, and not reporting on the outcome
of that meeting, could be minimal compared to the value of keeping the public
informed and calm.
Perhaps the biggest fear in the back of the collective human
mind in a First Contact event would be the alien perspective. Will it overwhelm
our human world? Will we somehow lose our humanity in the process of having a
relationship with extraterrestrials? Humor and honesty could help to keep the
process of Contact human in nature, and thus understandable, and hopefully acceptable,
to the world public.
What do you think? Give your opinion in a comment here or
visit the Alien First Contact Facebook page.
Tuesday, March 1, 2016
Extraterrestrial Contact: Fears
Fear would be a understandable, and perhaps
common, human reaction in any extraterrestrial First Contact scenario. It would
be a big concern in a Direct First Contact situation. Here is a breakdown of
possible human fears:
Fear
of Attack- Hollywood has primed us for this fear with a
million movies about marauding aliens attacking Earth. The threat of attack is
a legitimate fear, but only in the context of the actual situation.
Fear
of Interference- Concerns about aliens interfering in human
activities, either behind the scenes or openly, are also legitimate, and need
to be addressed.
Fear
of Conspiracy- This worry would probably focus on some group
of human beings having a secret deal with aliens that would give those humans
an advantage. This could be a particular country or some subset of human
society.
Fear
of Change- We’re already overwhelmed by changes in our
society and our technology. Information overload would be an issue.
Fear
of Being Left Out- This could be a fear held by a particular group
of humans or group of countries. The fear would stem from being left out of
decision-making and not receiving the benefits of First Contact. This will be
especially true for developing nations.
Fear
of Loss of Control- This will be a concern for many humans, but
especially for those who are in control of some human institution.
Fear
of Religious Change- This stems from the possibility that
information provided by extraterrestrials will somehow undermine particular
religions, thus throwing faith into disarray.
Fear
for the Future- What will humans become After First Contact?
Will we become more like aliens? Will the trajectory for human development be
changed? And for better or for worse?
Calming fears will be important in a First
Contact situation. International and government leaders will need to speak
often to address concerns and set up commissions or panels to respond to
legitimate fears. Scientists and other experts will need to put developments
into context for the rest of humanity and explore legitimate concerns. The news
media will have to be careful about responding to rumor and misinformation.
Context will also be critical for the media to truly serve the public. Humanity
will learn about First Contact developments primarily from the media, so there
is a tremendous responsibility there for journalists, and perhaps most
importantly, those who lead newsrooms and media companies.
Everything concerning First Contact would need to
be out in the open. Transparency would be essential to prevent
misunderstandings and diminish fear of conspiracy. There should be open
meetings for all developments in the First Contact process. Those meetings
should be streamed on the web for everyone to view. Leaders will need to
respond to rumors and misinformation immediately.
Every human would need to be included in the
process, in some way. That means all nations need representation in
decision-making. Leaders would need to listen to public opinion, and even
fringe groups, to hear concerns and respond to legitimate concerns. A bunker
mentality could be disastrous for leaders.
The rational middle of human society will need to
be fully engaged and prepared to speak out, if necessary. Fringe groups will be
quite loud. They cannot be allowed to dominate the discussion.
It may take a while for some of these fears to
develop. Leaders shouldn’t assume that a calm public in the first few days and
weeks After First Contact means that the calm will continue indefinitely. There
will be a period where humans and human leaders are stunned and simply
processing information. This will not last. Humans will need to respond quickly
to put into place a framework for responding to fear.
Monday, February 1, 2016
Extraterrestrial Contact: The Danger and Importance of Fringe Groups
Observation shows that human social behavior often follows
predictable patterns at the macro level. That’s why I think you can discuss
possible human social reaction to alien First Contact. At the macro level we
will probably react much as we do to other challenges and debates.
Fringe groups are major players in human social debates. A
fringe group could be described as a smaller, organized contingent of people
with beliefs that fall closer to the absolute pole than they do the middle
ground. If we look at human social reaction to a big issue, such as abortion,
you see two opposite poles and a continuum of opinion in between. The one pole
believes that there should be absolutely no abortions under any circumstances.
The other pole considers abortion to be the right of a woman to control her own
body, allowable under whatever circumstances the woman decides. Most of us
would probably fall in between these two extremes. Surveys show that to be the
case. Clearly, it’s a complicated issue that involves much more than simply
these two poles. But viewing the debate in this way allows us to see forces at
work.
It seems to me that the middle ground of any human debate is
often the quietest position. There seem to be less advocacy organizations representing
the middle ground. Institutions and larger, more broad-based, organizations
often occupy the middle.
Fringe groups, operating near the poles of the debate, are
usually much smaller in actual numbers of followers. Either because of this, or
due to the inherent passions of those in these positions, fringe groups tend to
be quite vocal. It’s important to note that in any large debate there are
likely to be many fringe groups operating at each pole. They sometimes work
together, and at other times they disagree and fight with each other. This can
be due to philosophical differences or simply the human problems of ego and
control. A fringe group at either pole seeks to influence the debate and
convince people in the middle. They do this via protests and other events
designed to garner media coverage. However, some members will view these
methods as unproductive and engage in civil unrest. Even smaller groups may
choose violence.
This type of human reaction can be seen again and again,
throughout human history. In the 1960’s war protestors held marches and
rallies. Some groups thought that rallies were not enough and provoked riots.
Still others resorted to bombings.
This may all sound negative at first blush. But we need to
understand the importance of fringe groups. They often represent a way of
thinking that is at odds with the current actions of society. An example is the
abolitionist movement well before the Civil War in America. Many regarded abolitionists
as radicals in the early days. As the debate became more widespread, the larger
group of abolitionists spoke publicly and changed minds, leading to greater support.
A smaller group helped to build the Underground Railroad. Even smaller groups
participated in violent revolt. Would America have rejected slavery if not for
the abolitionist fringe groups? It’s much easier to stay in stasis than to
participate in change. Fringe groups provoke debate and often action. They may
help us to see things in terms we could not before. It’s occurring today with
the animal rights movement. The push to protect animals in the food chain is
operating at a pole. Some groups believe in public education. Other groups take
more radical action.
It’s important to note that fringe groups can also make
existing situations much worse. That seems to be occurring in the Islamic and
Christian communities. The groups at the poles of radical Islam and radical
Christianity are engaging in all-out war. Extremist Islamic groups are attacking
the larger human society and that provokes radical Christians to promote
separatism. Those of us in the middle have to endure the violence and also
struggle to keep Muslims and Christians together in a common society. Groups
are struggling for power and control in the world of Muslim and Christian
extremists. Even more dangerous- there is an apocalyptic/religious reward element
involved on both sides. That means the parties often do not act rationally.
So, let’s bring this back to extraterrestrial First Contact.
The human reaction to intelligent alien First Contact will
probably correspond to the degree of tension involved in the situation. If we
are communicating with a far-off civilization, and our messages take years or
decades to travel, that will be a low level of tension. The second degree of
tension would be fast communication with a far-off extraterrestrial civilization.
This would assume that the extraterrestrials have communication technology to
do such, because we are still stuck at the speed of light for transmission and
most stars are many light years away. The third level of tension would be
representatives of an extraterrestrial civilization arriving in our solar
system. The tension in this scenario comes from the threat of close proximity
and the prospect of dramatic change in our perspective, if the aliens are
willing to share information.
First Contact would lead to a big debate over what we should
do next: welcome aliens with open arms or tell them to go away. These would be
the poles. The continuum of reaction would fall between these two extremes.
However, it seems inevitable that there would be extremist fringe groups
operating at these poles. Fear would likely drive the isolationists. Hope would
be important for the open arms contingent. Power will be a big factor in a
Direct First Contact scenario. Some groups may also find apocalyptic connections
to First Contact. The results could be chaotic and challenging. Some extremist
groups could turn to civil unrest and violence, especially on the isolationist
side. Fear appeals will be common. Rumors and misinformation will run rampant.
How can we predict such things for First Contact? Just look
at the current debates in our world. Fear based appeals; power grabs and
apocalyptic thinking are part of many fringe groups embroiled in a wide variety
of issues.
Despite the negative aspects of fringe groups, they need to
be heard and their ideas considered. As I mentioned before, human society
sometimes needs a push that only fringe groups can provide. The AIDS medical
research debate in the 1980s and 90s was a heated battle between activists and
health institutions. In the end, the work of the fringe groups, often nasty and
confrontational, pushed the government to take action. Without the vehemence of
AIDS research fringe groups, the tremendous progress that has been made in AIDS
treatment might not have happened. It certainly sped up the process.
What do we do then, in the wake of First Contact?
We need to listen to fringe groups and carefully consider
their arguments. We need to separate the facts and legitimate concerns from the
fear and misinformation. We need to put it all in context and then begin to
make decisions. The real problem may be the media. The media loves fringe
groups, because they are confrontational and controversial. That makes for
dramatic pictures and enticing headlines. There will have to be a massive
effort to get voices from the middle of the debate heard. Perhaps it would be
time for radical moderation? Moderate thinking could be expressed in the ways
normally used by fringe groups- protests and public demonstrations. Moderates,
having considered all sides, will need to be heard in order for us to proceed
in a positive way after First Contact. Violence and civil unrest need to be
rejected and dialogue promoted. It won’t be easy, but in the end decisions will
have to made and action taken by humans. We can’t let debate devolve into a
long-standing feud and inaction.
Can we respond to alien First Contact without the violence
and acrimony that has marked so many human disagreements? Hopefully. But it is
clear to me that there can be no bystanders in such a debate. Once all ideas
have been considered, the sensible majority, the rational middle, will need to
speak up and be heard.
What do you think? Give your opinion in a comment here or
visit the Alien First Contact Facebook page.
Monday, January 4, 2016
Extraterrestrial Contact: The Timeline of How We Will React
Wonder or horror. We never go much further than these dramatic and yet shallow human reactions to direct alien First Contact in our film and fiction. If extraterrestrials say hello to us, before we discover them, there would be a big impact to our human civilization. I like to consider that impact to humanity, past the knee-jerk reactions in the initial moments. This is an examination of extraterrestrial First Contact in a timeline of possible human reaction based on our current human condition.
Step 1: Contact
The initial revelation and reaction. People will be stunned.
Leaders will scramble to cope. It will seem at first that the initial wonder
will last forever. It won’t.
Groups involved: scientists, media, government, first
responders and military.
Public: acting as spectators only, no impact aside from
psychological.
Length: This period will be quite short, perhaps a few days.
Step 2: Communication
The very first communication between humans and
extraterrestrials would probably focus on the reason for the alien visit and a
discussion of a process to move forward.
Groups involved: international agencies, governments, media,
and perhaps scientists. With any luck the international agencies will quickly
establish advisory boards from important scientific areas, especially the
social sciences. The primary issues we will face are social science issues.
Public: the coalescing of individual reactions into
movements begins.
Length: A few days or a couple of weeks.
Step 3: Negotiation
The discussions lead to concrete proposals and
counter-proposals for action in developing a framework for a relationship. How
much information will they provide us? How will they provide it? What do we
humans control in the process? Politicians begin to assert themselves. Some
people seek to grab power by utilizing fear to mobilize the public.
Groups involved: international agencies, governments,
politicians, media, public and hopefully scientists. Civil society organizations
will also become involved, advocating for the dispossessed public.
Public: beginning to impact government action and
international agencies through opinion polls and formation of movements in
reaction to First Contact. There could be the very first sign of civil unrest
during this period. Fringe groups will become quite active.
Length: It could last anywhere from a few days to several
weeks, depending on the amount of debate between nations and inside
international agencies. The length is critical, because the longer negotiation
takes, the more time it gives for civil unrest and violence to break out. The
lack of a concrete plan will lead to instability.
Step 4: The Relationship Begins
The first trading of information in an organized fashion
takes place.
Groups involved: Scientists, international agencies,
governments, media, fringe groups, religious leaders, civil service agencies
and the public.
Public: fully involved, some groups responding with action,
civil unrest and violence. Fear based appeals by politicians and other people
seeking power. It becomes difficult for scientists and international agencies
to do their jobs because of the noise of the conflict.
Length: A few weeks or possibly months.
Step 5: The Relationship Continues or Isolationism
Develops
This is the true fork in the road. The debate that has been
raging will lead towards a positive framework for a relationship or the debate
will cause some nations to separate and isolate. Isolationism could be
accompanied by calls for military reaction for defense. The military could
become an active part of the debate.
Groups involved: everyone in developed nations and
increasingly the public in developing nations. We need to listen to developing
nations and the concerns of their citizens.
Length: no longer an issue.
Step 6: A Long-term Relationship or Isolationism
Prevails
There may be a split here between nations. Some may choose
isolationism and others may choose to continue in an information exchange with
extraterrestrials. However, this type of split seems unlikely. Nations outside
of the relationship with extraterrestrials would be worried about missing out
on technological and economic benefits of contact. It seems more likely that it
will be all or nothing for human reaction, with the debate being played out in
the United Nations. Nations must be shown the benefits of a unified international
response to First Contact. Scientific advisory boards can provide the expertise
and information to support this effort.
Step 7: The Long-Term Impact
Disruptions to the economy could be quite hard on the
public. Some industries may wither in the new perspective and others may grow
stronger. This could leave workers in a difficult situation, especially for
those lacking the education to take part in the development of new technology.
Nations will need to respond to these challenges early, through massive
education programs and workforce training partnerships with industry.
The big question is: when would we actually benefit from
extraterrestrial contact? It could take a while. The positives, aside from the
wonder of revelation, could take months, years or decades to develop. And in
the meantime, the negative impacts could cause us to turn our backs on
extraterrestrials. Isolationism could be a big debate, just a few weeks or
months into First Contact. Sadly, if it grows unmanageable, fear has the
possibility of ruining our relationship with extraterrestrials and never
allowing us to experience the benefits of contact.
Our Human Challenge
I know this sounds quite negative. And it will seem
inconceivable in those first few heady hours after the announcement of First
Contact. But that wonder of enlightenment could quickly lead to human conflict.
We need to be prepared for this. We need to develop a First Contact framework
to reduce conflict. Initial kneejerk reactions will be impossible to control.
But what happens next, with those reactions coalescing into movements and long-term
change, can be managed if we are prepared to counteract the negatives
immediately with the facts, whatever they may be. As I have said many times- a
little paranoia is a good thing. It helps humans to be cautious and consider
the risks properly. Rampant paranoia can lead to all sorts of horrible
reactions. Preventing this will take fast-acting leadership, courage and true vision.
Let’s just hope that our scientific community, politicians and religious
leaders are up for the challenge. The future of humanity will depend on it.
Tuesday, December 1, 2015
Extraterrestrial Contact: Fault Lines
I believe that problematic reactions in human society will
form along familiar fault lines in the wake of First Contact with an
extraterrestrial civilization. However, those fault lines could resonate and
grow in new and unexpected directions. In the same way that geologists track changes
in the earth’s crust to detect the probability of earthquakes, social
scientists, governments and institutions will need to track public perception and opinion. Notice that I mention perception first. We're used to gauging public opinion and perhaps not so used to evaluating perception. The difference, as I see it, is depth of analysis and context.
Humans will need active and sustained research to inform world leaders and the
public at large. Collectively, we will need to hold up a thoughtful mirror to
humanity and carefully evaluate how we are reacting to First Contact.
Communication and decision-making should follow from a close examination of
that human reaction. The danger After First Contact will come in knee-jerk
responses and in a failure to predict where things will go next.
What should we be looking for?
Ultimately, the monitoring of public perception can inform us, so that we can make decisions on how to move forward. Many concerns and worries will be quite legitimate. Humanity won’t come up with the answers for how to move forward immediately After First Contact. It will be a process of discussion, debate and revision. That will involve listening to the world public- each and every nation; people from many religions and cultural backgrounds. This isn’t a process reserved for the most wealthy of nations, particular blocs of nations or the so-called “free world.” This is a process for all of humanity.
Concerns, worries, rumors, misinformation and confusion can turn into fear if not addressed. Fear can lead to civil unrest. Concerns and worries can also be used by individuals and groups in the promotion of agendas that are ultimately more about grabbing power, than the actual concerns or worries.
Humans will be humans. We will need to listen. We will need to respond.
What should we be looking for?
-Confusion
-Concerns
-Worries
-Rumors
-Misinformation
-Signs of extremism leading to violence
This monitoring of public perception can lead to a better
response by scientists, the media and governments in informing the public of
the facts and clearing up confusion.
The world news media will be especially important partners in this process. They will have to be cautious and deliberate in their response to new information and in the coverage of events After First Contact. Media outlets will likely be the first organizations confronted with misinformation and rumors. Weeding out the truth will be incredibly important. It will be the duty of dedicated journalists to work with knowledgeable and trusted scientists. News organizations will need to strengthen filters to sort out bad information and prevent themselves from hurtling head-first into questionable stories. This won't be easy. Competition will be fierce and public desire for new information intense. The most important news organizations in this process may be the ones currently most susceptible to hype and rumor: the 24 hour TV news networks. If they fail us, the entire media structure could collapse into a squalor of stupidity. Here's looking at you CNN, Fox News, Sky, BBC, CNC, RT, DD, France 24, Deutsche Welle and MSNBC. Will you lead or will you fail? If you fail, then the public will need to turn you off and seek sober coverage.
The world news media will be especially important partners in this process. They will have to be cautious and deliberate in their response to new information and in the coverage of events After First Contact. Media outlets will likely be the first organizations confronted with misinformation and rumors. Weeding out the truth will be incredibly important. It will be the duty of dedicated journalists to work with knowledgeable and trusted scientists. News organizations will need to strengthen filters to sort out bad information and prevent themselves from hurtling head-first into questionable stories. This won't be easy. Competition will be fierce and public desire for new information intense. The most important news organizations in this process may be the ones currently most susceptible to hype and rumor: the 24 hour TV news networks. If they fail us, the entire media structure could collapse into a squalor of stupidity. Here's looking at you CNN, Fox News, Sky, BBC, CNC, RT, DD, France 24, Deutsche Welle and MSNBC. Will you lead or will you fail? If you fail, then the public will need to turn you off and seek sober coverage.
Ultimately, the monitoring of public perception can inform us, so that we can make decisions on how to move forward. Many concerns and worries will be quite legitimate. Humanity won’t come up with the answers for how to move forward immediately After First Contact. It will be a process of discussion, debate and revision. That will involve listening to the world public- each and every nation; people from many religions and cultural backgrounds. This isn’t a process reserved for the most wealthy of nations, particular blocs of nations or the so-called “free world.” This is a process for all of humanity.
Concerns, worries, rumors, misinformation and confusion can turn into fear if not addressed. Fear can lead to civil unrest. Concerns and worries can also be used by individuals and groups in the promotion of agendas that are ultimately more about grabbing power, than the actual concerns or worries.
Humans will be humans. We will need to listen. We will need to respond.
Have I missed something that we would also need to track
After First Contact? Join in the discussion on the Alien First Contact Facebook page.
Wednesday, November 4, 2015
Extraterrestrial Contact: Human Expansion
Interaction
with members of an alien race could cause us to view human civilization from a
different perspective. That could, in turn, cause us to question some of the
underpinnings of our human society. Expansion is one of those underpinnings. We
have been expanding in population and geography for thousands of years. Expansion
isn’t just one aspect of who we are. I would argue that it is one of the
defining aspects of human civilization.
It’s more
than just population expansion that is built into our collective psyche. The
human infrastructure has grown to the point where it can be seen from space. In
mainstream human society economic growth isn’t considered just a positive thing,
it is considered absolutely necessary for economic health. Zero growth is
viewed as a dangerous situation. The push for continuous economic growth is not
always sustainable. In past recessions the U.S. Government has urged consumers to spend money. The fact that many Americans were in intractable debt wasn’t
considered.
You can go
further: Businesses are told they must grow or risk decline and death. Humans often
base their personal well-being on how much food and material goods they have.
That means an expansion in personal consumption. Consider the worry in Italy as
the birth rate has plunged. It’s leading to an economic imbalance - not enough
young people to pay the taxes necessary to take care of a larger elderly
population. No one is saying that there may need to be changes in the ways
pensions are funded. Instead, the focus is on encouraging Italians to have more
babies and encouraging immigration.
There are
some in human society who question the expansion based civilization. They argue
that such expansion is tough to support at current population levels. The
increase in the human population on Earth requires more resources to be used
and that will eventually lead to the depletion of non-renewable resources. It’s
also causing major issues for the environment. The dangerous increase in greenhouse
gases is one example. Another is the fact that human expansion is killing off species at a rate not seen since the last great extinction. Meat consumption is
rising world-wide. Developing nations are demanding meat as a bigger part of
the diet of citizens. But meat production requires massive amounts of water and
space. Humans may soon find themselves unable to afford the true cost of meat.
Every nation
wants to get bigger, stronger and richer. Developing nations want the same
quality of life for their citizens as those in developed nations. That
inevitably leads to the consumption of more resources.
Technology
can help us obviate some of the need for resources. We can make more efficient
cars, appliances and heating and cooling systems. The U.S. oil industry is a
textbook example of technology getting more and more out of limited resources. They
are squeezing every last drop of oil out of the ground. But the growth in population
and demand means that these technological developments may not be able to keep
up for long.
Something
will have to change. The big question is when. Do we wait until there is a
crisis? That seems to be the current human plan. Or do we make proactive
changes based on projections for population growth and consumer demand?
I realize
that this is a blog about extraterrestrial contact, so let’s view this issue from
an extraterrestrial exploration perspective. If crisis does spur the search for
technological developments, then crisis could lead to the colonization of space. I know that sounds like a leap in logic. But consider Earth hundreds of
years in the future. The need to find more resources and new homes for humans
could push technology forward and make such colonization economically and
technologically feasible. Aliens might tell us that the expansion of
civilizations into space is dependent on the crises caused by home planet
population expansion.
So, do we
embrace expansion or attempt to live in a population stabilized world?
The big
question seems to be how miserable it will get on Earth before technology can
save us. And then there is another major issue: who gets saved? Will it be just the rich or will it be all
humans? Are there to be huge numbers of people left out of technological
revolutions and thus subject to poverty, famine and disease, while a select few
enjoy the technological benefits? One could argue that is currently the case.
Back to the
extraterrestrial angle: Would alien contact provide us with new ideas on how to
overcome these challenges? Or would reliance on alien technological ideas make
us lazy and less able to overcome the challenges on our own? Some of the
greatest technological developments in human history have come during crisis.
Atomic power is one example. How long would it have taken for humans to harness
the power of splitting an atom if there wasn’t the race with Germany to develop
atomic technology in World War II? Is the loss of 80 million lives worth buying
us 20-30 years in the development of nuclear energy? I think most of us would
say no.
We need to
be prepared for the idea that interaction with an extraterrestrial civilization
won’t just be an interesting lesson in their history and science. It may raise
questions about human society that we need to answer on our own. Do we need
interaction with space aliens to make us truly face these challenges and come
up with solutions? Certainly not. But we humans often enjoy biding our time
until we are forced to make difficult decisions. Alien interaction could be
used as a catalyst to speed-up that timeline. That might save us a lot of
heartache in the future.
Monday, October 5, 2015
Extraterrestrial Contact: Fear After First Contact
I often find myself splitting human response to First
Contact into two poles for this blog. In reality, most human responses operate
on a spectrum- a nuanced range from one pole to another. Fear is such a thing.
There is, of course, legitimate fear. Such fear has kept
animals of all sorts, including humans, alive for millions of years. A little
paranoia is not a bad thing. Caution would be important in the wake of First
Contact.
Fear also has negative side. It can be irrational and not
based on fact. Or more likely, it could be an overly fearful response to
something that should provoke caution. This kind of fear can be fueled by
misinformation and rumors. Irrational fear can be really dangerous. It can cause
people to do all sorts of awful things in reaction.
The spectrum tells us that humans will likely have a wide
variety of responses to First Contact, with some responses falling to the
poles. Some people won’t be fearful at all. To the contrary, they will welcome
any alien interaction with open arms. Those on the opposite side of the
spectrum will want to halt all contact and build space-based missile batteries
in defense. The more well considered reactions would probably fall to the
middle: openness balanced with caution.
It may seem that I am always promoting the moderate response
on this blog. It doesn’t have to be a wishy-washy position, if the moderates
are taking the best ideas from throughout the response spectrum. Moderation can
be people diluting everything to build consensus. I would agree that moderation
of that sort is not helpful. It seems to me that what is required is active and
bold moderation. This may be an entirely different animal than what we are used
to in human decision making.
My big point for this post is that there are people who will
attempt to use fear to get what they want in the wake of alien First Contact.
These individuals will speak to groups of humans and stoke the fires of fear to
provide the leaders of the groups with power After First Contact. They will use
rumors and falsehoods to get people agitated and then provide a fear-based
solution of their own making. If people look behind the scenes they will see
that there is a clear agenda with this type of individual. They hope to gain
something from the agenda: power, money or influence. Exposing this agenda in
the course of discussion will be critical. People must ask themselves: is this
leader working for their own benefit or for the benefit of humanity? It won’t
be easy. The debate inspired by First Contact is likely to be a cacophony at
first.
Media outlets around the world will have a huge role to play
in this situation. They will have to sort through the tumult and find the
carefully considered ideas. They will have to expose those who use fear to
leverage their own power. The fear mongers could come from politics,
religion…almost any of the human institutions. They may be very highly placed
individuals in government or business. The media and the public will have an obligation
to go beyond the rhetoric and find the true nature of each fear-based argument.
Is it designed to increase power for an individual or organization? Is it a
well-considered concern that can help all of humanity? I would imagine that,
like so many other things in the human realm, those things will often be
wrapped up together. A legitimate concern may be turned into a fear-based power
grab. The best human lies start with a kernel of truth. Politicians have been
playing these games for centuries.
Critical thinking will be essential After First Contact. It
isn’t an easy thing to do. We are all lazy at times and would like someone to
tell us what we should think. This is fine for some things. None of us have the
time to dissect everything around us. But for the big issues, critical thinking
is important. It must be utilized by institutional leaders and the media. But
more importantly, it must be utilized by the public and the public in every
nation on Earth. This may be demanding for countries that don’t allow for
freedom of expression. But those governments will have to allow debate
internally if they want to truly be part of the global discussion. Sociologists
and political scientists will have to design methods of listening to the public
in many different nations at once. We may have to refine global opinion polling
and take it to a new level.
In the end, we will need to think beyond ourselves. Sure,
there is plenty of reasonable fear to be had when considering the impact of
Alien First Contact. But if we are thinking about everyone on the planet and
considering future generations, our decision-making can move beyond fear and to
a place that will help us move forward with equal parts of optimism and
caution.
What do you think? Give your opinion in a comment here or
visit the Alien First Contact Facebook page. https://www.facebook.com/pages/Alien-First-Contact/158053114322999
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