Extraterrestrial Contact: A Road Map for Humanity

If we are confronted with alien First Contact in our solar system someday we will have to confront more than just the unknown. We will have to confront our inner nature. Do we spasm in fear as a human civilization and seek to protect ourselves at all costs? Do we allow greed and fear to create international chaos through conflict between nations?

It may be tough to get people to take that internal exploration seriously. We will be excited and focused on learning as much as we can about the alien perspective. Dedicated anthropologists and futurists will need to do the internal work and then help to prepare a roadmap for humanity.

Luckily, there are already science-based groups doing this sort of thinking. The Future of Life Institute (FLI) at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology is one such organization. It is led by M.I.T Physics professor Max Tegmark, Skype founder Jann Tallinn, and UC Santa Cruz Physics professor Anthony Aguirre. They focus on the human challenges in four major areas: Artificial Intelligence, Biotechnology, Nuclear Weapons and Climate.

The FLI scientific advisory board is an example of the range of expertise such think tanks enjoy. Advisors come from fields of study including business, genetics, brain science and artificial intelligence.

Oxford University professor Nick Bostrom is on the FLI board. His group, Future of Humanity Institute (FHI) at Oxford, focuses on many of the same topics with an emphasis on AI governance. They too consider existential risks such as climate change and nuclear proliferation, pointing out that such anthropogenic threats are immediate and wide-spread for humanity.

Other groups covering the same intellectual territory include the Global Catastrophic Risk Institute (GCRI) and the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk (CSER).

It is interesting to note that these organizations don’t consider the impact of First Contact with extraterrestrials. While I understand that the man-made challenges of climate change, nuclear war and run-amok artificial intelligence are much bigger threats, it is concerning that very few people are considering First Contact risks.

Groups such as these would be our second responders in a First Contact event. They may not be involved in the initial study, but their expertise in looking forward would be critical After First Contact. It could be disastrous to stumble into the future without an assessment of risk and a plan for positive development. Let’s just hope that world leaders understand this need if First Contact does occur in the future.

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Extraterrestrial Contact: Climate Change and Hard Decisions – We Need Help

If there are members of an extraterrestrial civilization studying planet Earth, we need their help. We have reached a crisis point with our environment and we are not taking the needed actions. Alien assistance doesn’t have to be technological. We need a massive kick in the collective human behind to take climate change seriously and take action. Communication and insight from extraterrestrials could change human priorities.

The UN International Panel on Climate Change (I.P.C.C.) issued a report this week that summarizes the effects of global climate change. We are currently experiencing a one degree Celsius global temperature increase since 1880. The UN report forecasts the potential effects of a 1.5 degree increase. The findings are alarming. At 1.5 degree increase, the report estimates 10 million more people will suffer from permanent flooding. Another several hundred million will experience climate related risk and poverty. That’s what we are facing in the next 22 years. It could be even worse. That temperature rise by 2040 could be higher.

While many nations are taking the threats posed by climate change seriously, few are taking action at the levels needed. It is a low priority in the budget considerations for countries across the globe, including the largest and wealthiest nations. The world appears to be waiting for the United States government to take significant action. That seems unlikely to happen anytime soon.

Humans need to take action on two fronts. The first is preparation. The second is mitigation.

Climate change preparation is most often thought of as flood control for coastal cities. While that would certainly be part of the needed action, it may not be the greatest need. We have the technology for flood control. The Dutch have been trying to prepare us for the inevitable by sharing their expertise (and paving the way for huge Dutch private industry contracts). Hoboken, New Jersey is one of the first American cities to put Netherlands technology into action. Dozens of other cities will need to follow. But let’s face it- the cost involved will be enormous. It is not feasible that all coastal cities and villages across the globe be saved. Some people will need to move and it shouldn’t just be the poor moving out of sea rise inundation zones. People in expensive homes will need to move. We will need to prioritize funding for the greatest impact to the largest number of people. That will take hard decisions. The primary United States disaster agency, FEMA, is currently in a cycle of disaster response and rebuilding. Many are questioning the wisdom of that process. The fact that we are just starting to consider these initial steps of change, and facing stiff opposition even then, is an indication of the enormity of the human dilemma.

Climate Change could force millions of people to move. A 2015 UN report shows that between 2008 and 2015 more than 26 million people were displaced by climate and weather-related disasters. Those numbers are expected to increase dramatically. Where will these people go? How will we take care of them? Those will be hard decisions and they need to be researched and planned for now. Nationalism, a trend in many nations, decreases international cooperation, and thus the ability of humans to combine resources to tackle climate change issues. Mass migration is likely to intensify those strains and lead to conflict. This is the warning for those who favor nationalism: it is in your best interest to tackle climate change now, before the masses are forming at your borders.

My point is that humans currently don’t have the collective will to get this done. It seems likely we will wait until the next crisis and respond singly to that event, and the next one, and the next, and so on, for many years to come. As those crises pile up, the overarching problems will only grow worse. We need to make hard decisions and we need to make them now.

Mitigation is similarly troubling. It involves decreasing the burning of fossil fuels and the human caused emissions of heat-trapping gases into the atmosphere. The cutting down of trees is also a cause of global warming. Trees absorb carbon dioxide. Without mitigation, we could be facing a 2 degree global temperature rise. That doesn’t sound like much of a difference, but it would have a massive impact to our world, far beyond that of a 1.5 degree level.

So, why do we need aliens? The answer is simple: to encourage humans to take climate change seriously. We apparently don’t want to listen to human scientists and environmentalists. Perhaps an alien voice could help. I am not suggesting we hope for extraterrestrial intervention that will solve our problems. We will have to solve our own issues. We have lived on this planet for thousands of years. We have hundreds of years of scientific research and technological development- specifically designed for the conditions on planet Earth. Aliens would have none of that experience. Humans can’t prevent climate change. We are experiencing it now. However we can prepare for the impact and mitigate the severity of that change. We need a massive shift in perspective to get us moving.

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Extraterrestrial Contact: The Initial Working Groups Defined

In my last post, I proposed that high information extraterrestrial First Contact would require safeguards. I suggested a set of working groups. These would be composed of experts in many different areas who are charged with learning alien science and alien history. They would then figure out ways to incorporate that information into the human sciences and the wider human society. These Initial Working Groups would need to be implemented immediately. They should be made up of people from across the globe and from many different backgrounds. However expertise would be the primary measure of appointment. The appointees should not come from United Nations staff or be employed by any government. They would need to take a leave of absence from whatever business or institution they worked for. They would need to be paid to avoid influence and corruption. The groups should be only temporarily active, perhaps for a term of two years, while the United Nations General Assembly worked on a long-term framework.

Here is a list of the Initial Working Groups that I think might be needed. I break them up into two sections- internal groups and external groups. Internal groups are focused inward at the information coming from aliens, and external groups focus on the bridge with human society.

Internal Groups:

The Appointment Group: This would be the committee on committees, charged with reviewing and appointing members to the other groups. I suggest that this could be done by the UN Security Council, joined by scientists in each of the critical fields. Science would be at the forefront of the discussion and it would be important for scientists to be well-represented.

The Relationship Group: This would be the primary communication group to interact with aliens, involved in all of the top level actions of information exchange. This should be made up primarily of scientists and not just from the physical sciences, but also the social sciences. The members would need to be generalists, able to consider issues over a broad areas of general expertise.

The Science Bridge: A group that decides which information should be reviewed by the different field groups, as discussed below.

The Field Groups: They should be formed to represent each of these physical sciences: Astronomy & Astrophysics, Chemistry, Crystallography, Mathematics & Statistics, Nanotechnology, Physics and Polymer Science; along with some of the social sciences, specifically economics, religion, and history.

The Future for Humanity Group: These appointees will examine any information that the field groups deem safe to communicate with the human public. They will look at the long-term impact to humanity of such disclosures, outside of the impact to the particular field in question. The hope is that they may spot problems that the more focused scientists might miss. This group could be made up of anthropologists and social scientists considering current human opinions and possible reactions in human society.

The Watchdog Group: This group would be charged with keeping an eye on the other groups. That would include rooting out leaks, corruption and influence issues. This Watchdog Group would have much power, which means it needs to report to the UN Security Council, but also maintain a measure of independence.

External Groups:

The Governmental Group: This group would be charged with direct contact with the UN Security Council and the General Assembly.

The Security Group: They would work with the governmental group, paying particular attention to issues that could impact human security.

The Communications Group: This group would consider how best to relay information to the public, when the other groups have determined what information should be shared. Appointees should come from social science fields, such as communications, international relations, economics and also communicators (reporters or media members) well-versed in the physical sciences.

The Listening Group: They would keep their attention focused on the reactions of humans and work closely with the Future for Humanity Group. They would consider individual and group concerns with First Contact, including fringe viewpoints. They would hold listening sessions and, if necessary, public hearings.

The groups must be allowed to act independently once they are filled with appointees. They should be small groups, perhaps no more than 11 people, designed in odd numbers for voting. There should be a chair of each group, decided by the appointees themselves. Once set into place, the United Nations would need to work with the Governmental Group on ideas and issues. There should be no contact allowed with the groups by governments, higher education institutions and businesses. Independence must be protected.

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Extraterrestrial Contact: The Initial Working Groups

High information extraterrestrial First Contact would require safeguards. It would be unwise to simply open the floodgates and let alien information flow freely to all of humanity. Why? Aliens with advanced technology would likely have a very different perspective on the workings of the universe. We would need to be taught to understand their system of knowledge. Once we did have the information, in a form we could understand, we would need to consider the impact that information would have on our sciences; our academic institutions; and our business community. Alien information could be very disruptive to human society. Now granted, aliens may not want to share their information. If they did share, though, we would need a system in place to handle that information transfer. Such a framework would require a bureaucracy.

The term bureaucracy is often used in the pejorative sense because it can make things in our daily lives much tougher than they need to be.  Anyone who has dealt with city zoning or codes can understand the frustration. However, there is a positive form of bureaucracy. Things cannot be done on a mass scale without some form of organization. It would be frustrating to come up with a novel solution for each and every need. We establish bureaucracy to carry out a process with efficiency and fairness. There are rules and guidelines that are followed. That helps to protect us from unwanted outcomes.

Extraterrestrial contact would require some form of bureaucracy. Initially it could be as simple as determining who carries out basic communication with aliens. It would need to grow from there, especially if there is high information transfer planned between aliens and humans. The initial bureaucracy would need to be established quickly. The United Nations is the only human institution designed to represent most of the world nations. As such, it would be integral in any alien First Contact situation. And yet some of the most criticized bureaucracy on Earth is United Nations based. So, how can the UN provide a platform for alien communication without creating a bureaucratic monster? That would be something for humans to consider in the long term. It would be a matter for the General Assembly and representing nations, to determine. In the short term, we would need an effective and efficient system of communication, and safeguards to protect the human civilization. I suggest that a set of working groups should be implemented immediately After First Contact. Those groups would consist of temporary appointments of experts in specific areas. They would be alien first responders, of sorts. The key would be to create these groups and appoint these experts quickly. That would need to be done by a small group of people; perhaps the UN Security Council? It would be important for the expert groups to be diverse. Clearly expertise would need to lead the way, but sex, race, age and background would need to be considered. It would also be easy to appoint people just from the world superpowers, and ignore smaller or less established nations. I have formed a list of experts that could be called upon. However, it is a very narrow group of those most involved in extraterrestrial intelligence, and human technology development issues.

These temporary groups, let’s call them the Initial Working Groups, would consider the information extraterrestrials offer, determine what was safe and ready to be communicated, and then how best distribute that information. I must, once again, stress the temporary nature of such a framework. Having the Initial Working Groups would provide time for a more robust system to be developed, subject to vigorous debate, and eventual approval by the UN General Assembly.

There would be those who argue against alien information control and that viewpoint is understandable. Transparency and openness is often the best route in many human circumstances. However, this particular circumstance would be unlike anything we have previously encountered. It comes with high risk and many potential threats. Going slowly doesn’t mean that the wider population of humanity won’t eventually receive all of the information aliens are willing to share. It simply gives us the framework to consider the impact of such information before it is released. 

Appointees to the Initial Working Groups would be subject to a great deal of pressure. You can imagine the power an individual would have with access to alien information before the rest of the world. It would be important for members to take a leave of absence from any business or academic employment. They would need to be paid to prevent corruption. The appointees would need to sign non-disclosure papers. That may concern some people, but the emphasis on non-disclosure would be to prevent the release of alien information in leaks. Any debate about the make-up or actions of such a working group would need to be open to full public scrutiny. Appointees should have the ability to comment on organizational issues. There would also need to be a separate watchdog group formed, to make sure the rules were being followed.

In my next post I will provide some thoughts as to what Initial Working Groups would be needed.

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Extraterrestrial Contact: Human Artificial Intelligence

Artificial intelligence (AI) could be a big issue in extraterrestrial First Contact. The first aliens we meet may be mechanical creations controlled by artificial intelligence. Thus far on this blog I have considered primarily the alien side of artificial intelligence: but what of human AI developments? Tad Friend has an excellent piece in the New Yorker that explores worries over the rise of human designed AI.

Researchers use three primary terms to describe human AI:

-Artificial Narrow Intelligence (ANI) is the term used to describe technology such as Apple’s Siri and self-driving cars. We have this in varying degrees of intricacy now.

-Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) is defined as being at the level of human intelligence. It is the goal of many companies and institutions currently working in the field. It is generally agreed that AGI has not yet been accomplished, although the boundaries are being pushed daily.

-The ultimate level of AI is called Artificial Superintelliegnce (ASI). It would be intelligence beyond any human capabilities, even for the most gifted of humans.

Defining AI based on human intelligence could be tough in the future, especially if we find ways to boost our own intelligence artificially. One could argue that your smartphone is a first step for that intelligence boost. What happens when your smartphone is directly connected to your brain? Of course AI researchers would say that access to information is not intelligence. Intelligence in the narrow definition is the ability to solve problems. Some would argue that a true test is the ability to understand shadings of meaning in language and use imagination to solve problems. Our decision to base AI levels on a comparison to human intelligence is perhaps a symptom of our anthropocentric thinking. However, it is also the only measure we currently have. Other definitions are not human based, but rather scale based- weak AI versus strong AI. This of course, would create problems as technology progresses. What is strong AI one day could be weak a few years later.

There is further debate with the suggestion by pioneering AI researcher Judea Pearl that we not use reasoning by association to rate AI (simply looking for correlations in data) but rather causal reasoning; inquiring how causal relationships would be altered if there is intervention.  Kevin Hartnett has a story explaining this in the Atlantic Monthly.

So, let’s get back to the aliens. I have said before that there could be two basic types of alien AI machines exploring the universe: Biologically Originated Intelligence (BOI) and Artificially Originated Intelligence (AOI). The difference is simple: did biological beings create the intelligent robots cruising through space or did other artificial intelligence create those mechanical explorers? The answer has big implications for humanity. We worry about the rise of AGI and ultimately ASI. Will humans become extinct? Will we morph into increasingly mechanical beings? Will ASI decide to get rid of us or perhaps leave us behind to explore the universe while we struggle here on Earth? Those questions are far-fetched considering our current level of technology. But the concern it would raise in First Contact could have a direct impact on our relationship with alien AI. We could well understand a sophisticated alien probe controlled by biological creatures. However, a probe with AGI or ASI capabilities would be a concern. There would be an inherent threat involved in any alien machine visiting our solar system. The worries would increase as a direct correlation with the differences exhibited by that visiting alien life form. A big question could be the relationship between the original alien biological creatures and their created AI. Do they exist together in harmony? Or did the AI grow to supplant the biological beings? If the later is the case - that would likely create a great deal of concern among humans. We could find ourselves with some major issues to consider, ranging from what kind of contact we would want to have with alien AI to how much further we want to go with the development of human created AI. One could imagine quite a bit of angst on the part of humans. Certainly it would be a tough way to start a relationship.

And perhaps that is the reason aliens have not said hello yet: they are in fact advanced AI and don’t know if we can handle the idea or the threat. Alien AI might be better off waiting until we are further along on the evolutionary scale, if that is indeed where it leads.

I think the best message to humans under such a First Contact scenario would be this: we don’t have to follow the historical path of aliens. We are early enough in our AI development to choose a different road, perhaps with more closely controlled AI. Before freaking out we should carefully study alien history. It could show that the biological creatures moved willingly, over time, to increasingly mechanical based bodies. Perhaps AI merely assisted the biological intelligence until the two became indistinguishable? We would certainly want to request a timeline of alien history as part of our initial contact.

In the meantime, we need to keep using that human imagination. We can create more fictional stories that explore these issues. It is our best way to conceptualize such matters. One can scoff at books and movies as mere entertainment, but when the idea behind such stories has weight, and the ideas are thoughtful, it may be our best way of considering how we want to proceed with AI.

 

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Extraterrestrial First Contact: President Trump and First Contact

If for some reason aliens thought now was a great time to make First Contact with humans, they would have to consider international relations. The international relations climate is impacted by the actions of the President of the United States. So, how would aliens feel about President Trump?

President Trump Pros:

-President Trump prides himself on bucking the political establishment. That could be attractive to aliens who are worried that our institutions will move towards a defensive posture.

-He seems to care about making history and alien First Contact would certainly make history.

-President Trump values business growth and long-term alien contact could create many new opportunities for businesses, depending on what knowledge we gain.

-He seems to care less for precedent in his decision-making, which would be important for First Contact, because there are no human precedents.

-While he has concerns about the United Nations bureaucracy, he does seem to value American power in the United Nations.

-The threat of America being left out of the alien relations process could cause him to push for interaction and American involvement.

-He would likely welcome the distraction from the many issues challenging his administration.

President Trump Cons:

-Nationalism is by its very nature protectionist. The President might default to a protectionist stance when considering a response to alien First Contact.


-The President is currently waging a trade war with many nations, alienating members of NATO, and annoying longtime allies. He might not be in the best position to unify an international response to First Contact.


-President Trump is known for changing his mind on issues, sometimes quickly and in dramatic fashion. That could create instability in alien relations.

-After expressing an independent view on an issue he tends to fall back to Republican Party lines, which could be protectionist.

-He could try to seize complete control of the First Contact process and attempt to keep the benefits of alien contact for America.

-He could be distracted by the many issues challenging his administration.

Hopefully, the American President, and other world leaders, would realize that alien contact would require careful consideration. Human political factions would have to work together to determine a path forward. Differences between human groups would seem rather silly considering the enormity of meeting members of an extraterrestrial civilization. I hope that perspective would be clear to all world leaders if such a situation ever arises.

Extraterrestrial Contact: A List of Experts

It would be essential for humans to review the situation After First Contact with an extraterrestrial civilization and develop a framework for moving forward. This may not be a priority if First Contact comes from the discovery of a far-off signal. There would be plenty of time to consider what to do next. However, it would be important, and need immediate attention, in a high information First Contact scenario, where aliens visit our solar system. 

There is no one with expertise in such matters. Very few people have even considered the issue. What follows is a list of people who have considered First Contact and the implications. While there are many SETI (Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence) researchers represented, the people on this list were chosen not only for their experience in SETI exploration, but also their consideration of the larger issues likely to become challenges After First Contact. These radio astronomers, astrophysicists, and astrobiologists have thought about First Contact and are among the best prepared to consider how to move forward. There is also an effort to include members of the social sciences, which may have the most important role After First Contact. Some of the largest space agencies are represented at the administrative level. They may have First Contact oriented experts within their ranks that should be added. The list also includes science fiction authors. Their ideas and imagination would be critical to developing a path forward After First Contact.

This is by no means intended to be a comprehensive list. I am most likely missing some important people. I did my best to search for international representatives and women. However, as I am sure the women can attest to, this has been a male dominated field for many years. The United States has the most active SETI research and thus is dominant in representation. The final tally in this list is 60 people total, 43 men, 17 women, 32 USA, and 28 international.

Frank Drake, Emeritus Professor, University of California at Santa Cruz

Jill Tarter, former director of the Center for SETI Research, SETI Institute board member

Paul Davies, Arizona State University, and SETI Post-Detection Taskgroup - International Academy of Astronautics

Dan Werthimer, Berkeley SETI

Andrew Siemion, Berkeley SETI

Bill Diamond, SETI Institute

Seth Shostak, SETI Institute

H. Paul Shuch, SETI League

Richard Factor, SETI League

Simonetta Di Pippo, Director of the United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs

Claudio Maccone, Chair, International Academy of Astronautics Permanent SETI Committee

Michael Garrett, University of Manchester, Jodrell Bank Centre for Astrophysics, UK

Leonid Gurvits, JIVE, the Joint Institute for VLBI ERIC, The Netherlands

Douglas Vakoch, president of METI (Messaging Extraterrestrial Intelligence)

Catharine Conley, NASA Planetary Protection Officer

Carol Oliver, Australian Centre for Astrobiology, University of New South Wales, Australia

Martin Rees, Astronomer Royal, UK

Alan Penny, University of St. Andrews, Scotland, UK
Avi Loeb, Harvard University

L.M. Gindilis, Moscow State Forest University, Russia

M.Yu. Timofeev, SETI Science and Culture Center of the Tsiolkovsky Academy of Cosmonautics, Russia

Kathryn Denning, York University, Canada

V. Radhakrishnan, Raman Research Institute, India

Hisashi Hirabayashi, JAXA Space Education Center, Japan

Lori Walton, Tigerstar Geoscience Research, Canada

Sun Kwok, Dean of Science, University of Hong Kong, China

David Raitt, European Space Agency

Nathalie Cabrol, Carl Sagan Center

Lindy Elkins-Tanton, School of Earth & Space Exploration, Arizona State University

Iván Almár, Konkoly Observatory, Hungary

Bruce Jakosky, NASA Astrobiology Institute, University of Colorado at Boulder

Jim Bridenstine, Administrator, NASA

Dmitry Rogozin, Roscosmos State Corporation (Russian Space Agency)

Tang Dengjie, China National Space Administration

Johann-Dietrich Wörner, Director General, European Space Agency

Kailasavadivoo Sivan, Indian Space Research Organization

Guillermo A. Lemarchand, UNESCO Division of Science Policy and Capacity Building

Jim Pass, Journal of Astrosociology

Kathleen D. Toerpe, Journal of Astrosociology

Michael Varnum, Psychologist, Interplanetary Initiative, Arizona State University

Debra Fischer, Astronomer, Yale University

Shannon Lucid, Chief Scientist, NASA

Eugene L. Tu, Director of NASA Ames Research Center
Renee Kraan-Korteweg, University of Cape Town, South Africa

Elisabeth Piotelat, SETI League Regional Coordinator, France

Bill Nye, Planetary Society

Heidi Hammel, Planetary Society

Bijal (Bee) Thakore, Planetary Society

Nick Bostrom, Future of Humanity Institute
Anders Sandberg, Future of Humanity Institute 

Jann Tallinn, Future of Life Institute


Susan Schneider, University of Connecticut

Michael A.G. Michaud, Author

Jame Funaro, Anthropologist, Cabrillo College; board member, Cultures of the Imagination

Penny Boston, New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology; board member, Cultures of the Imagination

Neil deGrasse Tyson, Director of the Hayden Planetarium at the Rose Center for Earth and Space in New York City

Michio Kaku, Professor of Theoretical Physics in the City College of New York

Yuri Milner, Breakthrough Initiatives

Cixin Liu, Science Fiction Author

Connie Willis, Science Fiction Author

Ted Chiang, Science Fiction Author

Groups:

International Academy of Astronautics

SETI Permanent Committee of the International Academy of Astronautics

International Astronomical Union

International Institute of Space Law

Committee on Space Research

Royal Society

SETI Institute

SETI League

SETI Science and Culture Center of the Tsiolkovsky Academy of Cosmonautics

SETI Section of the Astronomy Council, Russian Academy of Sciences

 

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