How different countries might respond to Extraterrestrial First Contact

No matter how interconnected we might feel these days on planet Earth, the human civilization is still dominated by the interaction of independent nations. Groups like the United Nations, International Monetary Fund and G-20 may bring us to the table for certain issues. However, decision making for the majority of human endeavors is still done at the national level. This presents some serious challenges for extraterrestrial First Contact.

The primary question is how governments would react. I put the emphasis on governments to make a clear distinction with how people might react. All governments have an agenda. That agenda certainly includes the needs of the people being governed, but the agenda has a practical side as well- the desire for governmental leaders to stay in power.

The chief concerns in a First Contact event would be amplified versions of current concerns: security, economic growth, competition for resources and internal stability. The nature of First Contact certainly would determine which of those concerns rises to the top of the conversation. In a mysterious First Contact event, security would be more important. In a relatively safe, high-information sharing First Contact event, the prime concern could become a quest for information that can lead to technology development.

Underlying all concerns is the characteristics of the nation itself- the type of government, challenges facing the nation, the nature of its people and relationships with other nations.

Here’s a look at how some governments might react to a non-threatening direct First Contact event:

China

I put the Chinese first for a reason: I believe they are a critical wildcard in the reaction to extraterrestrial contact. I think the response of the United States and the European Union may be fairly predictable, depending, of course, on the circumstances of First Contact. The Chinese, though, are at a critical stage in their history. The authoritarian government is increasingly embracing capitalism, while seeking to maintain control of how that capitalism manifests. This experiment has remarkable issues.  Corruption is a problem at all levels of government. The Chinese middle class has invested heavily in real estate and now the country faces a real estate bubble beyond anything we have seen in the west. Entire cities have been built through speculation and yet those cities have virtually no residents. This, and other factors, including manufacturing changes, has put China in a challenging situation economically. The government is actively pursuing new technology as a means of securing economic opportunities. This could become the driving factor in the Chinese reaction to First Contact, if it is a high-information sharing First Contact.

The Chinese also face major challenges in human information control. The government blocks many internet sources from reaching the Chinese people. This effort to control information could become a big issue in a First Contact event. The quest for information will be enormous. If the government attempts to censor world media reports of First Contact the Chinese public could react harshly. This could continue for some time. Why would the government attempt to do such? Unless the information threatens the government somehow, it would seem unnecessary. Still, Chinese leaders will need to take a leap of faith to allow the Chinese people to take full part in the discovery, wherever it leads. The Chinese people seem rather open to First Contact and in one survey less rigid in their reaction to such an event.

I believe that the Chinese government is likely to embrace First Contact. The biggest problem may be making sure they feel fully included in the world decision making in regards to First Contact response. As a member of the United Nations Security Council they could be among the first to consider the implications of First Contact. The Chinese have an active space program and their scientific community has considered First Contact issues. To what degree Chinese scientists have pondered First Contact is hard to say, given the veil of secrecy over matters of space exploration and science. In a strange interview, a Russian cosmonaut suggested that the Chinese have a protocol for handling First Contact. 

Russia 

Russian scientists have been considering First Contact issues for many years. While some of this has been, how shall we say, a bit “out there,” consideration of the issue make the Russians important players in any First Contact scenario.  Russian wackiness concerning this issue was not helped by the joking of former Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev, who remarked to the media that he has a secret file of aliens living among humans. Most of the UFO conspiracy folks leave off his punch line: that it could all be seen in the movie “Men in Black”.

Deadpan humor aside, the Russians have a long tradition of extraterrestrial considerations. In 1961 astronomer Nikolai Kardashev proposed a scale by which civilizations could be measured by the amount of energy it can produce and utilize. Russian scientists are valued members of the world astronomical associations.

The government is certainly a wild card of sorts. Russia, much like China, seems to be at a cross-road between relative freedom and tight government control. The Russians too have embraced capitalism and will likely be quite interested in how they can benefit from First Contact. And this is a major issue for all countries. Once the initial shock of First Contact wears off, people will begin to consider the possibilities for what a relationship with extraterrestrials could mean for human development and commerce. I’m not saying that we’ll be trading with extraterrestrials, but rather that any information exchange could open up new opportunities for commerce through technology development.

The Russians currently have the most developed space program in the world and that may put them ahead of even the United States in some aspects of First Contact response.

India

The Indians also have an active space program and a scientific community that has considered First Contact. Moreover, the public, perhaps prompted by a rather imaginative media, already seems to believe First Contact has occurred. A Reuters poll showed that 40 percent of Indians and Chinese surveyed already think that aliens are walking the Earth.

So, perhaps First Contact wouldn’t be a big shock. The country does have a well-developed system of high education. A robust academic community would be extremely important to a nation in the wake of First Contact. The academic community will need to build bridges between what humans know now and new information coming from extraterrestrials. How well a nation interprets and understands extraterrestrial information may well decide how it develops in the future.

As with the other countries, India is doing everything it can to have a seat at the international table. They will be an important group to include in First Contact discussions.

European Union

It seems that all we hear these days about the European Union are reports of financial woes. Those woes would be a consideration in the wake of First Contact. The fragile European economy could have serious issues if world markets undergo wild fluctuations after First Contact. While every nation would be impacted by such swings, the Europeans have several nations on the brink of financial collapse. The turmoil has put the Union in jeopardy of disintegrating.

On a more positive note, European Union nations have vibrant and active scientific communities in many fields. The level of expertise would be a valuable resource in the wake of First Contact. The British Royal Society is one of the few world scientific organizations to seriously consider First Contact. France is home to the International Astronomical Union, one of the most visible proponents of First Contact discussion.

Brazil

Brazil has had an on-again, off-again space program, and many think that with new-found wealth the country may step up efforts. The country represents a new wave of emerging world powers.

Brazilians would be watching developments closely and be concerned about being left out in the cold. South Americans and Africans are likely to react poorly to indications that the major powers are trying to control First Contact response. This is where the United Nations comes into play. It’s the only venue we have for government participation in world matters. Through the UN General Assembly, nations such as Brazil and Egypt can voice concerns and suggest options for First Contact response. This means bringing issues to the General Assembly and not just the UN Security Council.

The United States

In his 1997 inaugural address President Clinton said “America stands alone as the world’s indispensible nation.”

That statement, and the debate over the concept of America being indispensible, has plenty to consider for First Contact. American popular media seems to imply that the United States would be the first stop and the last stop for visiting extraterrestrials. This arrogance is probably not surprising to the rest of the world. American pronouncements of “exceptionalism” have raised hackles for decades.

President Obama has sought to change the national philosophy in foreign policy. The indispensible nation now seems to find value in a more measured leadership role, one that allows other nations room to grow and lead. It’s an important difference in leadership and one that seems ready-made for life After First Contact. In the wake of First Contact, it will be important for the United States to take a leadership role, without dominating the discussion. This won’t be easy, primarily because there will be Americans arguing for complete control of diplomacy and other issues After First Contact. A lot will depend on the style of leadership of the President of the United States. A President that believes in equal world participation will be more likely to work for the inclusion of other nations in the decision-making process. A more nationalist president could be a serious challenge to inclusion. We tend to think of our nation as stable and solid, and it is, compared to many other nations. However, we have a serious fracture developing behind the scenes. It’s hard to pinpoint because it manifests in many different ways: anti-government, pro-gun, religiously conservative and seemingly distressed over national diversity of cultures. What ties these groups together is a fear of big government and a distrust of the United Nations. These separate groups could coalesce into serious opposition to United Nations involvement in First Contact. It could also turn into outright rejection of extraterrestrial diplomacy, an opinion that other minority groups, in nations across the planet, may express after the shock of First Contact wears off. This may provide the biggest challenge of all in the wake of First Contact.

The reaction of the U.S. government is important because of the robust nature of the scientific community in the U.S. and the ties to space exploration lead by NASA. The U.S. is also home to a number of groups that have actively considered First Contact issues, including the SETI Institute.

Extraterrestrials would be advised to carefully consider U.S. involvement in the initial moments of First Contact. The appearance of an American government controlled First Contact could be extremely problematic when it comes to world reaction. The United States may have the media and scientific communities best able to handle First Contact, but that shouldn’t mean that such an event is recognized as American First Contact, versus global First Contact.

The Fringe Nations

Fringe nations fall outside of the normal blocs of power. They may seem like unpredictable provocateurs, but many analysts have pointed to the logic in the seemingly illogical actions. North Korea is a prime example. Once again, they are posturing and threatening. To what end? The same ends they have pursued in the past: using the threat of violence to secure aid in the form of food and goods and using threats to world powers to secure the power of the North Korean leadership. That makes leader Kim Jong Un perfectly logical according to psychoanalyst Heath King. So, might North Korea once again posture and make threats to gain a seat at the table in the wake of extraterrestrial First Contact? It seems logical.

The same could be said of slightly less isolated nations such as Iran and Venezuela. Their hatred of the United States would clearly be an important factor in their reaction to First Contact. As with much of the Arab world, if First Contact is perceived as an American event it seems likely it will provoke a negative reaction from these nations. What does that mean for diplomacy with extraterrestrials? It would be a lot tougher for the UN to focus on alien diplomacy if it is coping with threats coming from fringe nations.

How will humans handle First Contact? That may depend on the thought and consideration put into First Contact by extraterrestrials. One would assume that such visitors would have a well-considered plan for First Contact that would take into account many of these national reactions. This assumes, of course, that aliens give a damn about our reaction. I think, though, if they plan a friendly introduction these would be important considerations. And if aliens hope for a long-term relationship with humans, these considerations and many more would be essential. 

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Mysterious First Contact

I fall into the simplicity trap as much as others who consider extraterrestrial First Contact. The simplicity trap is speculation that cleans up the fuzzy edges and assumes First Contact will be something easy to grasp. Our scientific efforts rarely work that way. Much of human endeavor is murky, complicated and challenging. Even a clear and obvious First Contact scenario would come with many complications and surprises. In any First Contact event it’s not just a question of alien actions and motives, but also of human reactions and responses.

Perhaps the most disturbing alien contact scenario, aside from outright hostile action on the part of extraterrestrials, would be mysterious First Contact. I would define this as evidence of intelligent extraterrestrial life, without a clear welcome or declaration of intent. Arthur C. Clarke wrote the definitive science fiction story with this plot: Rendezvous with Rama. Future humans encounter an alien craft headed toward Earth. They explore the craft and find only more mysteries. The novel concludes with the extraterrestrial spacecraft using the sun’s gravitational pull to throw it out towards a far-flung galaxy. We never really know the purpose of the craft or the motives of the Ramans, as the humans call them. It’s an interesting dilemma: the thrill of discovery mixed with fear of the unknown and Clarke does a great job building the tension.

That tension comes from the path of the spacecraft in Rendezvous with Rama. It’s headed near Earth. The proximity of extraterrestrial intelligence to the Earth would be the prime factor in how humans respond to a mysterious First Contact event. If we discover an engineered signal coming from a far-off star system the threat is lessened. If we discover an alien craft rounding Jupiter and headed to Earth, well, needless to say, that ratchets up the worry considerably.

Fear thrives on lack of information. In such a case, speculation would run rampant. Without solid facts to counter such speculation, it could go beyond the province of internet gossip mongers and impact the wider human population. Protection of Earth would become a big issue in any scenario. I would imagine we could expect much more debate about space monitoring and probably space defense. The lack of an acknowledged authority at the international level could make it worse. While people seem to trust the United Nations for the coordination of space treaties and the cataloging of space junk (as tracked by NASA, among others), there is still no real authority given to the Committee on Peaceful Uses of Outer Space. The United States and China would share a common threat (or perception of threat we should say) and yet that’s no guarantee they would actually work together. One would hope the UN Security Council would be seen as an international authority, but even that group is fraught with conflict and challenges. And there are other concerns, beyond the political. Space defense technology would rely on extra-planet missile defense, which is not allowed under UN treaty. And any build up of arms in space would be a threat to Earth.

For these reasons I would argue that close proximity mysterious First Contact would be the near worst case scenario (next to an all-out alien invasion, oh so favored by our friends in Hollywood). Mysterious First Contact would create a degree of paranoia that could make human interactions dangerous and foul the waters if the extraterrestrials did eventually decide to communicate with humans.

There is certainly not much we could do to counteract such a situation. We could only control our own reaction and hope that cooler heads prevail here on Earth. Perhaps such a mysterious First Contact would actually bring nations closer together, as they rally around a common cause?

The only advice I can provide would be to any extraterrestrials planning a visit in the future. Please let us know that you are coming and, perhaps most importantly, why you are coming. We have enough problems down here as it is. Thanks.

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Islam and Extraterrestrials

I’ve discussed religions enlarging their perspectives to accommodate the possibility of extraterrestrial life and intelligence. The Roman Catholic Church has been the most prominent religious institution to take this approach. A number of astronomers at the Vatican Observatory have taken up the issue, including Father Jose Funes. The message is simple: god is great enough to include all things, including extraterrestrials.

There has been less talk of how Muslims might consider extraterrestrial beings. Imam Shabir Ally, president of the Islamic Information & Dawah Centre International in Toronto, seems to share the Catholic interpretation. In a recent article on the OnIslam website, Ally frames the question of extraterrestrial intelligence from readings in the Quran. Imam Ally says that the Quran has several passages that refer to many Earths existing and universes in a plural form. He also says that if humans had the Prophet Muhammad, perhaps aliens too could have prophets spreading the word of Islam on other planets.

I personally believe that alien religion would be quite foreign to us, if the concept was even relevant to extraterrestrials. It is interesting, though, that this Imam is taking a view similar to the Catholic perspective. Perhaps this is an indication of how the large religious institutions would handle alien First Contact? There is still the question of fringe groups and outliers. How will fundamentalist groups and religious extremists in many different religions react to the reality of extraterrestrial intelligence? We may never find out, and extraterrestrial beings may not even exist. However, I think it will be an interesting theological debate if First Contact ever does occur.

Extraterrestrial Contact: Elements of an Organized Introduction and Human Response

I’ve proposed various elements of extraterrestrial contact over the years. Perhaps it’s time to combine those elements into one list. This list would apply to dramatic and direct First Contact; that is, contact where an extraterrestrial civilization arrives in our solar system to say hello. I don’t think that this has happened or is likely to happen, but I do think it deserves some consideration. We’ll have to make a couple of big assumptions to get started. The first would be that the aliens in question mean us no ill-will. The second would be that they don’t have any agenda other than saying hello. This would be what I call a “reaction-neutral” introduction, or one that was not designed to provoke a particular response or action on the part of humans. I think this could be best described as a diplomatic or scientific mission. This is a simple scenario and the real thing would likely be more complex. However, these basic actions would still apply to even a more complex situation.

The list begins with alien actions and continues with human actions.

Alien Actions

Introduction: The method of introduction would be critical. To truly be “reaction-neutral” the hello would need to come to all humans and not filtered through a particular government, institution or corporation. There is a multitude of ways this could be carried out. It would seem that some alien consideration of human public relations would be necessary in determining the method.

Allow humans to respond: Once there is an introduction it would be important for extraterrestrials to allow some space for humans to digest this new situation and formulate a response. With any luck, the “reaction-neutral” introduction would not lead to excessive conflict between nations or some sort of hostile reaction.

Communicate with us: Alien communication would depend on their reason for saying hello in the first place. This motive, or more likely complex motives, would likely drive all of their actions. The message communicated to us would have a huge impact on our reaction. Humans will want to know immediately why aliens are saying hello and what expectations those aliens have for a relationship with us. Humans would also need assurances that extraterrestrials would respect our right to determine how contact and diplomacy proceeds and respect our right to autonomy. Extraterrestrials would also need to communicate all physical actions they take on Earth, or in our solar system, well ahead of time, so there is no surprise after the initial introduction event.

Reassure us: As I stated before, human public relations would be important at each step in the alien introduction and eventual diplomatic relations. Primary to this would be issues of public safety and human autonomy. One would hope the extraterrestrials in question had studied us long enough to have a public relations plan that would address these concerns. That plan would need to adapt to changing circumstances on Earth. One could lay out what they might expect from human reaction, but it seems likely unanticipated situations would arise, requiring new public relations efforts. Remember, a public relations effort does not necessarily mean alien spin doctors and salesmanship. At its heart, public relations work is merely a way of communicating with humans to carry out a specific goal. That goal would go back to the alien motives for saying hello.

Move slowly and deliberately: Any action will have the opportunity for confusion and misinterpretation by humans. All alien actions would need to be clearly communicated ahead of time and made as simple as possible to understand, especially in the early days of diplomacy.

Share information in an organized process: If extraterrestrials were more advanced than us in science and technology, there would be a big learning curve if we hoped to understand science and technology from their perspective. This would require some form of education, first for human academics and eventually for the wider population. This would be important for the relationship. It would also be, perhaps, quite difficult to develop. Assuming extraterrestrials had already learned human languages, there would still be issues of biology and culture to overcome. Aliens with a very different biology could have very different senses and thus a unique perspective on the environment and universe. Cultural differences would also likely create a gulf between humans and extraterrestrials. One would hope that extraterrestrials would consider such matters and have a plan of action.

Human Actions

Develop a framework for diplomacy: Humans are not clear about how we think relations with extraterrestrials should proceed. It has been seriously considered by only a small group of academics and writers and there is no consensus. Who should be in charge of diplomacy? Governments, the United Nations or scientific bodies? How do we ensure that all humans are represented and that the form of diplomacy does not allow a particular institution or government to control extraterrestrial relations for their own benefit?

Support transparency:  This is perhaps the most important element of the human response to First Contact. Any attempt to hide such an event from the public eye would create conflict and mistrust, perhaps to a dangerous extent. Transparency goes hand in hand with objectivity (not favoring a particular nation). Not only does the introduction need to be made to the entire planet, but it also needs to stay squarely in the public eye, with all deliberations and decisions, to the extent possible, made public. This could prove tougher and tougher as many serious matters arise, especially in making decisions about information dissemination from the aliens to humans. Clearly, one could not hope to make decisions about what information was safe to release to humanity, while sifting through that information in public. Even for matters that must remain hidden, the entire process could remain transparent.

Move slowly and deliberately: Any alien action will have the opportunity for confusion and misinterpretation. All actions, alien and human, would need to be clearly communicated ahead of time and made as simple as possible to understand, especially in the early days of diplomacy. This applies just as much to humans as it does aliens. The primary risk in human reaction is some wave of panic brought on by confusion or misinterpretation. Human governments and institutions will need to be on guard for such situations. Transparency is the best way to prevent this problem.

Allow for protection: Any type of First Contact would create a feeling of threat, to some degree. Direct First Contact would create a high degree of concern, due to the close proximity of visiting extraterrestrials. It would be natural for human governments to put military units on alert. Caution to some degree is inevitable and probably quite prudent. However, hostile reactions by humans are possible, especially if there is confusion in the process. Extraterrestrials would need to communicate all actions well ahead of time and humans would need to keep tight control over military units monitoring First Contact.

Determine a framework for information sharing: We will need to carefully consider the impact of sharing information with extraterrestrials. If they are advanced in technology this could pose a real problem for our world economy and our sciences. Perhaps this would be a role for scientific bodies representing the primary areas of concern? A panel could study the possible impact and develop a road forward for disseminating alien information.

Watch the world economy: Direct First Contact could create great swings in world economic markets as investors try to determine what extraterrestrial contact means for various industries and businesses. Careful attention to world markets and possible controls for wild fluctuations would be important.

Monitor fringe groups: Human reaction could come in a range of responses, from calm and thoughtful to frightened and violent. It seems likely that large institutions and governments would be more likely to react calmly due to a balanced nature of power sharing and decision making inherent in such entities. Fringe groups are another matter. Due to their small size and tendency towards radical views, they could react in haste. This could be a real problem, especially if fringe group reactions get extensive coverage in the news media. The reaction of small religious and political groups could eventually have an influence on the wider public, creating all sorts of issues for the human response.

Examine the future of our civilization: High information First Contact would have a big impact on our civilization. There would be a great need for an organized and well-developed consideration of that impact. From that effort could develop a plan for moving forward to ensure that human contact with extraterrestrials is beneficial to humans for generations to come.

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Okay space aliens, how about now?

The President of the United States just started his second term. Europe seems to be out of economic critical care. China and Russia face plenty of challenges, but the governments are fairly stable right now. There is no great world disaster in need of immediate attention. In short, Earth is a relatively calm place. So, how about now for First Contact space aliens? If you’re waiting for us to pull our collective human act together, this may be as good as it gets. Sure, Egypt is going to hell and Syria is still a bloody mess. But we can handle it. First Contact would be an incredible distraction for humanity. In a critical moment, such as the Japanese tsunami disaster or the height of the European debt crisis, such distraction could be a real problem. The entire world needed to mobilize to help the Japanese, especially in light of the nuclear crisis. The European Union had to make tough decisions to find a road to economic recovery for Greece, Spain and Italy. You wouldn’t want to make contact during a crisis of such an immediate nature.

I’m not saying that there are any extraterrestrials out there waiting to say hello. Even if there are extraterrestrials in the neighborhood, they may have no interest in making contact with us. But one would imagine that if extraterrestrials were interested in making contact, timing would be everything. If they care about human reaction they would want to plan the big hello very carefully.

This scenario makes a couple of big assumptions. The first assumption is that aliens would care about human reaction to First Contact. The second is our perspective on timing. The extraterrestrial concerns over timing in First Contact could be very different indeed. They might have criteria that would never even occur to us. As usual, we view First Contact through the lens of human perspective. The alien point of view would likely be quite different.

Still, if extraterrestrials were concerned about human reaction, picking a time of relative calm would be a good idea. Dramatic First Contact would be a big shock to our system.  It might be best to approach us when we can best handle it. Better get on it space aliens. Calm is unlikely to last very long on the third rock from the Sun.

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