A New Project for SETI

SETI researchers at U.C. Berkeley are not letting funding issues stand in the way of the search for extraterrestrial intelligence. A few weeks ago they announced that budget cuts would shut down research conducted in conjunction with the SETI Institute on the Allen Telescope Array. Just last week the Berkeley scientists spoke up again, this time trumpeting the start of a new project focusing on possible planets discovered in the NASA Kepler Mission.

They’re using the massive Green Bank Telescope in West Virginia to pull data from the starfield that Kepler has explored to find 1,253 possible planets in recent months. In particular, they are looking for signals in the star systems of the planets that have shown the most Earth-like characteristics. It will only be 24 hours worth of data, five minutes per likely candidate, but that will take plenty of time to sort through. We can all be involved through the SETI@home project, which uses our computer downtime to help sift through the data looking for that standout signal that would bear closer attention. Of course, Green Bank is where the SETI effort began as Project Ozma 51 years ago.

This doesn’t mean the funding issues are no longer a problem, just that they have found a new project while the SETI Institute works on raising funds to restart the Allen Telescope Array. You can help in that effort as well. Visit the SETI Institute home page for details on donating to the cause.

Ambiguous First Contact

SETI researchers have pointed out that First Contact is likely to be an ambiguous event in many respects. The reception of an alien signal would take much study to determine the origin, with plenty of debate along the way. Even once confirmed as being engineered, what the signal means could take many years to decipher, if that’s even possible. Yet, there are issues that even an ambiguous signal, once confirmed to be of extraterrestrial intelligence in origin, raises for humans here and now. The problem comes in what we don’t know. The discovery of an engineered signal would only show that there is possibly intelligent life out there in the universe. We would have a specific origin of the signal to study for further evidence of life. But is that location necessarily where the intelligent beings are from and where they are now? Perhaps they were just passing through or have a relay of some sort? Perhaps it’s a leftover remnant of a civilization long passed?

The mere fact that there is extraterrestrial intelligence out there would raise a series of troubling questions: exactly where are they? Do they have the ability to get here? Are they already in the neighborhood? Once again, proximity becomes a major issue.

Even an ambiguous signal raises the need for a unified, United Nations led effort to provide a framework for response. Developing a diplomatic framework, even before we know what we might be dealing with, actually makes sense. Having a framework in place means that you have thought through the possibilities and you can respond much quicker to challenges when the need arises. Developing a working relationship between scientists, politicians and diplomats would be important in such a scenario. Groups like the SETI Institute could provide the knowledge and background to help lead United Nations officials in developing a planet-wide response.

The trouble may be far off or may even be something we never confront. It may not even be trouble at all, simply pleasant space aliens with whom we conduct a decades-long conversation across light years of space. Considerations of our defense and safety are still a cautious and practical reaction in the wake of an ambiguous First Contact. It certainly shouldn’t be a panic driven rush to put nuclear weapons in space. It could simply be a series of what-ifs leading us to consider making some long-term changes to make us safer. Perhaps just monitoring our solar system for evidence of visitors? Or a manned observation system in Earth orbit?

The SETI Institute and the United Nations should begin the basic discussions now. It can be an informal and zero-dollar conversation to start. And perhaps it is already occurring and I’m just out of the loop. I know that United Nations officials, such as Mazlan Othman, the Director of the United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs, have attended scientific conferences that have involved SETI researchers and astrophysicists. I hope they have had an opportunity to sit down over coffee, at the very least, to have a reasonable discussion. It could grow into a volunteer task force that reports to COPUOS (the United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space). Developing a working relationship now would be quite advantageous if First Contact ever does occur. But please, let’s keep it quiet. The media has proven that they can’t handle the excitement when people talk about reasonable approaches to First Contact.

My Open Letter to Extraterrestrials

I recently referenced a website titled “Invitation to ETI.” The primary part of the website is an open letter designed as a direct welcome to an extraterrestrial civilization. After reading it again I couldn’t help but come up with my own version, with no disrespect intended to the “Invitation to ETI” folks.

My Open Letter to Extraterrestrials

Hello and thanks for reading. You’ve probably been surfing the Internet, trying to figure out what makes humanity tick. First of all, let us apologize for the Internet. We’re not sure why it’s 12 percent porn. We’re also not proud of the fact that most discussion of extraterrestrials focuses on alien abductions and a ridiculous incident in New Mexico. What can we say? We’re a highly excitable bunch. Now, if you have been abducting us, please stop. It’s not the best way to start a new relationship.

You have probably noticed that there isn’t much scholarly work about extraterrestrials. The brave academics and researchers who do write about the topic face criticism and the erosion of professional reputation. There is a small band of dedicated scientists who have brought some degree of respectability to the topic. Please give Frank Drake, Jill Tarter, Seth Shostak or Paul Davies a call. They have been leaders in this area and would have much to discuss with you.

Despite recent advances in technology, which brings us humans much closer in communication, we’re still a highly fractured people here on planet Earth. We have what we call the United Nations. We’re still not entirely sure what we should do with it. We’re apparently scared of losing our cultural and national identities. In all candor, we are still comprised of tribes. We're interconnected, but disorganized and often rather testy.

If you decide to contact us directly it would probably be quite a spectacle here on Earth. Overall, I think we would handle it well. Once we manage to deal with the apocalypse fanatics and the fringe religious groups and endure the political posturing and inevitable power grabs- we should be ready for a rational discussion. Our scientists will have to work in conjunction with our politicians, a relationship that currently isn’t going very well. Nevertheless, they will do their best to put up with each other. We have managed not to blow ourselves up yet with nuclear weapons. We’ve done serious damage to our environment, but we’re working on it-slowly, anyway.

I think an introduction from you would have a transformative effect on our civilization. It would be challenging in the initial weeks and months, but I think such a revelation would bring us humans closer together in the long run. We hope that you’re friendly and have altruistic reasons for wanting to communicate with us. Either way, we would rather know the truth, than continue to labor under the assumption that we are alone in the universe.

So, welcome. And once again- sorry about all of the porn. We hope you otherwise enjoy your Googling and we look forward to meeting you.

The Blind Side

The subject of extraterrestrial First Contact has not been treated well in the popular media. Thankfully, there are serious science writers who have taken the time and effort to put together thoughtful pieces on the topic. Tim Folger published just such an article in Scientific American a few months ago. “Contact the Day After” is an overview of the current state of the SETI (Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence) scientific effort and an examination of what might happen after First Contact.

Folger points to the very human reactions of researchers when confronted with a signal that they believe may be of extraterrestrial origin. Seth Shostak with the SETI institute shares as story that he has also talked about in his book. It was an “engineered signal” discovered 13 years ago. Eventually, that signal was determined to be coming from a NASA satellite, but in the meantime, while taking a closer look at the signal, researchers did what humans are prone to do: act human.

“It’s not that people do anything mischievous or malevolent—you’re so caught up in the excitement of the moment, the media are calling you on the phone, people send e-mails to their friends,” Shostak said.

The main point of the Folger article is that SETI based First Contact is likely to occur in a drawn out fashion, with many years needed to study and decipher an alien signal. In the meantime, the public, while initially excited, will have a relatively muted response because of the many unknowns.

“I think the assumption that one day someone is going to announce that we’ve discovered extraterrestrial intelligence, and now the world knows, is a fallacy, because there’s going to be much more ambiguity in the process,” said Douglas Vakoch at the SETI Institute.

Vakoch, and others, realize that First Contact, if it behaves like most other scientific discoveries, will not be an absolute process. There will be debate, many research studies conducted over a great deal of time, and probably a fair amount of controversy along the way. That’s just how human science moves forward. There is rarely the Eureka! moment.

Fair enough. I have said all along that such a discovery is the most likely form of First Contact. However, I still think that the SETI protocols need to be merged with broader protocols, which would describe a diplomatic response, moving in step with the scientific effort. It’s a subject that has yet to even be discussed by the United Nations.

And what if we do experience a Direct First Contact event? What if communication, for whatever reason, is possible and can be conducted relatively quickly? What if we can have a conversation with an extraterrestrial civilization? We haven’t planned for that possibility. You can argue that Hollywood and fiction writers have worked this ground over again and again. And yet it’s a shallow reworking of tired soil that has lent very little to a practical discussion of how we might handle Direct First Contact. It’s the blind side in this discussion. The UFO folks find it boring, because, of course, aliens are currently running Proctor and Gamble. The SETI folks don’t have time to think about it, because they have too much else to do. Science writers touch on the idea from time to time, but leave it behind because of the high wackiness factor. And that leaves us with very little else.

The problem is that Direct First Contact is a much different animal. If we can have an actual conversation with an extraterrestrial civilization, there are many, many considerations to take into account. Threat becomes an immediate issue. The sharing of information is a concern. Diplomatic roles and leadership is a major problem. Politics, economics and even psychology suddenly are some of the most relevant subjects in regards to human response. And yet there very few people actively considering these issues in a rational and thoughtful way.

This little blog isn’t designed to be that forum. It’s simply a “what if” whispered in the dark.

I leave this entry with one of my favorite pieces of writing on this subject. It’s on a website titled “Invitation to ETI.” The open letter is designed as a direct welcome to an extraterrestrial civilization. While you can tell from the tone of the letter that it’s probably much more instructive for humans considering First Contact issues, and most likely written as such, it does set a tone for the conversation that seems well considered.

 

“We will treat you with respect, courtesy, friendship, and caring. We will speak and act truthfully, avoiding lies and deception. We will deal honestly and fairly with you, avoiding any temptation to exploit the situation for personal greed or for any particular nation or organization. Without forsaking our own values and integrity, we will be as empathic, helpful, and flexible as we can in understanding and fostering your goals and plans.”

And of course that’s how we hope they would treat us.

I disagree with those who believe First Contact would be of minimal impact to our society. The effect on the human psyche of First Contact, especially Direct First Contact, would be profound: we are not masters of the known universe any longer. We have neighbors. We cannot control them. There is risk and there is incredible opportunity.

It’s time to move forward.

.

Proximity

In a dangerous situation the severity of a threat is often in direct relation to the proximity of the threat. An Earthquake in Japan creates the highest degree of threat for people who live in Japan and less so for those who live in Finland. A shooting incident is of primary concern for people close to the line of fire and less so for those who live in another neighborhood. The same could be said of First Contact. The threat, both real and perceived, would be in direct relation to proximity. If the aliens in question are 50 light years away, there is much less of a threat than if they are hanging out in Paris, France. Technology is important in these considerations as well. Do the aliens have the ability to travel here, and if so, how quickly?

In a sense, there is an insulation of distance when a disaster strikes or there is an external threat. Still, this blog examines the possible impact of Direct First Contact. That entails an extraterrestrial civilization showing up in our solar system and perhaps here on planet Earth. So, what can we predict in the way of human response to a Direct First Contact event?

There is, of course, no real answer to this question. There are too many unknowns and too many variables. However, we can take a look at how humans react to disasters here on Earth. Bagrow, Wang and Barabasi examine communication immediately after disasters to try and uncover a pattern of human reaction to large scale emergencies. In the March issue of the www.plosone.org journal they published a study that looks at “cooperative human actions under externally induced perturbations.” They scanned media reports to pick a bombing, plane crash and earthquake and then used cell phone records to chart communication activities. For a control group they took a look at similar cell phone records for large concerts and sporting events. The results, not surprisingly, show that proximity is the best indicator of the volume of communication following a disaster. In the bombing the spatial decay of the communication volume came to 2.38 kilometers. In the plane crash that increased to nearly 10 kilometers. In the earthquake it was 110 kilometers. Human communication immediately after a localized disaster is most important for those who could be most impacted. Proximity is the prime motivator.

A Direct First Contact event may start in the same fashion. If an alien spacecraft was to land in New Jersey, it seems likely that, at first anyway, the Jersey residents would be the ones most concerned. However, Direct First Contact has an element that is different from anything we have experienced thus far in human history. Direct First Contact would contain an element of threat for the entire planet at once. Just the revelation that we are not alone in the universe and that we really don’t know much about the new visitors creates a threat. What are their motivations? Can we trust them?

So, what of the human reaction? One would expect that if Bagrow, Wang and Barabasi were to conduct a similar study after a dramatic Direct First Contact event they would find cell phone communication patterns consistent with a large scale emergency- at first. The locations nearest the alien landing would experience the greatest amount of cell phone activity. I suspect though, that they would soon find a reverse effect. As the news would spread across the globe, the level of concern in all corners of the planet would grow greatly, with corresponding cell phone traffic increasing in an expanding pattern outward from the point of contact itself. It would be a pattern unlike anything we have seen. And of course communication is just the start of human reaction. What would happen next?

Recent surveys have found that humans polled about First Contact issues seem relatively nonplussed about the possibility. That term applies well in this case, because while it means unperturbed in the popular lexicon, it also means surprised and confused to such a degree that the person does not know how to react. I would suspect that this may be the immediate response to a Direct First Contact event. A period of stunned silence seems likely, as people simply try to comprehend the news and watch to see what happens next. Extreme reactions of civil unrest or hysterical response could come later, after people have had time to process the information and decide how it fits into their world view. Some may say it’s the end of the world. Others may view First Contact as a sign of religious significance. These people would probably be in the minority; however it is unlikely they would be a quiet minority.

Threat is certainly a legitimate concern in any First Contact event. Whether the aliens are light years away or just down the street, there is some degree of threat, especially perceived threat, until we know more about the situation. Information and education would be the key to keeping people calm, if indeed we should want to remain calm. Transparency would be essential. First Contact would have to be handled in a way that allayed fears and answered many legitimate questions.

I think the positive aspect of a dramatic Direct First Contact event is that it would draw all humans together in a collective living room of sorts. People would gather around televisions worldwide to see what happens next. While there have been many large world events that have brought people together, nothing would compare to dramatic First Contact. For whatever unrest such an event would create, it would also bring humans together in a way we have never experienced before. That common bond could be enough to sustain us through the great challenges that would come After First Contact.

Help SETI Get Allen Array Back On Line

State and federal budget woes have caused the Allen Telescope Array to be put into "hibernation." The Allen Array is the most powerful tool yet in the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence. The SETI Institute has launched a public effort to raise funds to get the Allen Array up and running again. You can help. It may sound like a small thing, and perhaps not an immediate government priority in the larger scheme of things, but the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence is growing in leaps in bounds, aided by the many planetary revelations of the NASA Kepler Mission. Take a moment and visit the SETI Institute web site and donate if you can. A few dollars each, from a bunch of us, could help tremendously.

Maybe They Should Just Leave Us Alone

Let’s say that there is an extraterrestrial group, of some sort, out there, somewhere near-by and studying us. I have presented plenty of arguments for why now would be a relatively good time to say hello. Here’s an argument for leaving us alone.

Human development comes from challenge. We want to keep predators at bay, be able to see at night, and cook food to make it more palatable (and release more nutrients) so, 400,000 years ago, humans learned how to control and eventually produce fire. We face a challenge and find a solution, and thus the human race moves forward. The challenges can even come from other things that we create. It could be argued that the age of nuclear weapons has brought countries closer together in diplomacy and turned warfare into a global concern. We currently face a massive environmental challenge, and on numerous fronts. Global warming is just one of the threats. The nuclear crisis in Japan is an example of how our technology can threaten our long term existence. While it may not seem like it in real time, if you take a few steps back for a wider perspective, you can see humans answering these challenges. Nuclear power is undergoing new debate. It seems likely that in the wake of the Japanese nuclear crisis there may be prohibitions on the type of old technology used in those nuclear plants. Upgrading nuclear plant technology will take on a new importance and with it human technology will advance.

What would happen if those challenges disappeared? Science fiction writers love to imagine a world in which we meet extraterrestrials and learn the secrets of the universe. Even slightly more advanced extraterrestrial emissaries could provide radical new insights into science and the universe. Do we really want extraterrestrials spoon feeding us new information?

In a sense, it’s like working out for better health. Even if someone could invent a machine to flex your muscles to build muscle strength, would you really want to do it? Exercise the old fashion way also increases flexibility and strengthens the heart. Perhaps you could find a way to flex those muscles electrically (many bad inventions have claimed to do this) and still do real exercise to benefit the heart and develop greater flexibility, but what of the other benefits of real exercise that we might not fully understand?

Human technological and social development is a complex thing, with millions of interactions each day that will determine how we go forward. If you take away the need for some of that interaction, especially in the sciences, what unintended consequences might we face?

So, maybe the space aliens should just leave us alone and let us develop on our own. However, there is another solution that we probably would not enjoy or understand. Perhaps they should say hello, but with the caveat that they don’t give away any important information. Would we be able to handle that? Can’t you imagine the reaction when the extraterrestrials just say no in response to our questions about science and the universe? Would we understand? Would we feel that we are being treated like kids, or even worse, lab rats for study?

Information will be the most important part of the relationship After First Contact, and the flow of information of upmost concern. We may provide some insights for the extraterrestrials. It is likely though, that if they are advanced in technology they would be the ones providing most of the new information. How much they choose to share and how we respond to that decision could have a big impact on the future of the relationship between two civilizations.

A Suggestion: The Next Fifty for COPUOS

Last week marked the 50^th anniversary of manned space flight. The achievement still brings a sense of awe to many of us. The United Nations marked the occasion with a celebration of sorts. I found the UN news release interesting, because it notes that this year also marks fifty years for the UN Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (COPUOS). The committee works to develop the rules that define activities in outer space. There are plenty of pressing matters when it comes to outer space activities: the threat of Near Earth Objects (NEOs), the danger of weapons in Earth orbit, and the accumulation of space junk. I don’t want to infer that the group does not have enough to work on, but there is something they are missing: a clear framework for diplomacy in the event of First Contact with an extraterrestrial civilization.

Argue what you will about SETI protocols and alleged secret NASA contingency plans, there is nothing that I have seen that outlines who should be in charge of diplomacy in a First Contact event. The SETI (Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence) folks have done a good job in defining what should occur in case of a SETI discovery. However, the protocols stop well short of the diplomatic process. And when you think about it, that need for diplomacy could come up in the variety of situations. Perhaps it’s a question of humans sending messages deep into space. Shouldn’t there by a world body charged with determining if that should happen at all and, if so, what message should be sent? Instead, we hold Internet contests to determine those messages.

The most serious need would arise if we did have communication with an extraterrestrial civilization. Even if those messages take dozens of years to travel back and forth over light years of space, there should be an organized process for coming up with our answers, and perhaps more importantly, our questions. Science should certainly be at the forefront of such a conversation, but diplomacy needs to lead the way.

So, COPUOS, happy birthday to you. I suggest that after blowing out the candles you give some serious thought to the next 50 years. The Kepler Mission is turning up potential planets by the spacecraft-load. SETI scientists have new computer firepower that allows them to process data like never before. How long will it be before we hit the big one and find out that we are not alone in the universe? 

I firmly believe that the United Nations is the organization that should be tasked with First Contact diplomacy. It is the only body that represents most humans, in most countries on Earth. COPUOS, and the corresponding United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs (UNOOSA), are the natural organizations to handle such diplomacy. UNOOSA Director Mazlan Othman took a great deal of flak recently from the media when she merely suggested that COPUOS examine First Contact issues. It’s time to get beyond the snickering and face the facts: we are not ready for First Contact. We have done little to prepare. The impact of such an event would be enormous. Human civilization would be changed forever. Isn’t it worth a few moments of serious thought?

That Brutal Little Blue Planet

How would an extraterrestrial civilization view us?

It’s more than just a casual observation. If First Contact ever does occur (and I’m not saying it necessarily will) what they think of us would be a critical element of the new relationship.

Well, let’s put it in a form easier for us to comprehend: how would we view them? The answer is through the lens of our particular perspective. We would view them in comparison to us. Given that, one would imagine that they might view us in comparison to their type of biology, culture and technology. That could be a pretty high standard, depending on their level of development. If they are a much more advanced civilization they could view us as the brutal, scrappy little planet with major environmental problems. You would almost hope that in such a situation there would be many civilizations that our visitors had studied. This, at least, might help them view us with an element of objectivity. Rather than suffering in a direct comparison with them, we would perhaps be seen as part of a continuum of development that occurs with intelligent beings. They might even classify such civilizations:

Class one: intelligent life developing

Class two: early civilization

Class three: mechanized civilization

Class four: computerized civilization

Class five: destroyed their planet and now looking for a new home

Okay, sorry, I couldn’t resist.

Why does all this matter? How they view us goes directly to the heart of the new relationship. If we are the only other civilization they have run into, they might have high expectations for us, expectations that could be judged by their standards. This could have a huge impact for our future. In the wake of a dramatic First Contact scenario, with a high degree of interaction between ourselves and extraterrestrials, human self-determination will be a big issue. Do we decide our own path forward or are we under the influence of a powerful new friend?

The Fears

Godzilla is back. At least in the popular imagination. NPR reports that Wikipedia searches for the 1950’s horror film icon are up significantly. The reason? Perhaps, an exploration of fear. Godzilla, as you may remember, was created in the movies due to radioactivity caused by atomic bombs. The Godzilla searches are seen by some social scientists as a way for us to explore our fear about radiation leaks and, of course, those fears are now sky high, thanks to the nuclear crisis in Japan.

Grady Hendrix, co-director of the New York Asian Film Festival, had an interesting quote in the piece:

“Movies are where we rehearse our fears.”

So, what about fear of extraterrestrials? I think you can put most scary extraterrestrial movies into four general categories of fear:

Personal attack and violation: This is perhaps the scariest of scenarios, because it involves personal violation. The alien abduction movies would be the best examples. Abduction and experimentation are often done at night and when a person is asleep. “Close Encounters of the Third Kind” certainly starts out this way. “Communion” is perhaps the classic tale of a family tormented by aliens. Hollywood upped the ante recently, with the “Fourth Kind”, which did not fare as well at the box office. The primary fears are a loss of free will and a loss of privacy. Aliens have powers beyond our imagining and they do with us as they want. We won’t even bother discussing the use of probes.

Corruption of the individual and society: In a sense, this is the broader version of the personal attack. My personal favorite was the original “Invasion of the Body Snatchers.” There is an element of personal violation, but the trend is toward a subversion of human society. The TV series “V”, both in the original and remake, take this conspiracy to new levels and point to what could be the most profound fear for humans: the aliens will take over our society. Once again, the loss of free will is a major factor.

All-out attack: Hollywood loves this plot, probably because Hollywood loves to blow stuff up and alien invasion movies provide plenty of opportunities. In fact, it seems that directors spend a great deal of time deciding what well-known structures to explode. “Independence Day” blew up the White House. “Battle: L.A.” takes the whole city down, one building at a time. However, it’s interesting to note that in both of those examples the humans are able to fight back. And they all return to the same theme first popularized by H.G. Wells with “War of the Worlds”: we don’t know exactly why they’re out to get us, but they are, and we’d better do something about it. Often, extinction is the ultimate fear in these movies. However, loss of free will and enslavement are also motivators.

We’re not worthy: This is a slightly more esoteric fear, explored very nicely in the original “The Day the Earth Stood Still” (and not so well in the remake). The idea is that the aliens are worried about what we humans might do to ourselves, and the rest of the universe. Humans are basically bad, but with some redeeming characteristics. There is usually an ultimatum of some sort. The primary fear is that we are not worthy of hanging-out with the more developed extraterrestrials. Many of us like this plot, because it infers that we are probably our own worst enemy. And history tends to support that theory.

Film buffs will be quick to point out that most alien movies have an underlying fear that might have nothing to do with space aliens. “Invasion of the Body Snatchers” is thought to be an exploration of fears of communism. Godzilla was just one of many examples of how people worried about the nuclear age, both in the 1950’s, and apparently now. However, if you consider extraterrestrial First Contact in any form, you would want to explore the fears that would accompany such an event. They would grow in correlation to the amount of interaction involved in a First Contact event. If we merely intercept some far off message, it would be one level of fear. If the aliens land in Baltimore and take in a ballgame at Camden Yards, it would be a much greater degree of fear.

We would be naive to think that fear would not be an important issue After First Contact. While such an occurrence may not provoke open panic in the streets, it would certainly be a background worry, and one that could impact important decision making for world leaders, scientists and the general public.

How do we get over our fears? I suppose it can only come through facing reality. If we ever get the opportunity to meet members of an extraterrestrial civilization, we will need to explore these concerns. I would suggest that the best way would be to consider them openly. Caution is a pretty important characteristic of the human personality. It keeps us safe. Turning fear into reasonable caution would make sense. Fear isn’t entirely irrational. All of the previous scenarios could be plausible in the wake of First Contact. Talking about them openly, and forming a framework to protect ourselves, might be the best medicine of all. And hey, we’ve had plenty of rehearsal time to get ready for the big performance. Thanks Hollywood.