Extraterrestrial Contact: Data Mining

We humans are sitting on massive piles of data. It’s estimated that we created 1.8 Zettabytes of data in 2011. The amount of data created has been doubling every two years. Where does it all go? Storage, for the most part. There is a burgeoning industry in mining and making use of that data. It can inform the management of a company about trends and future activity.

Some of that data is probably junk, but by analyzing data you can do more than just tell you what has occurred in the past. Lockheed Martin analyzed Twitter and Facebook posting activity to predict large public protests in Saudi Arabia.

Just imagine the massive amounts of data being generated on Facebook alone. You can bet that Mark Zuckerberg is thinking about it. It’s probably the future for Facebook. Imagine being able to tell businesses not only what people want to buy now, but using predictive analysis to also tell businesses what consumers are likely to want six months or a year from now? Such information would be incredibly valuable and Zuckerberg is sucking it into his servers each and every minute.

This isn’t an anti-Facebook post. I believe that social media is an important part of the future of human communication. I think to a certain extent social media also means that we must accept transparency of all sorts- and that includes access to the information generated. Just because a company is using it to sell more soft drinks doesn’t mean it can’t also be used to predict health problems or track disease. It’s a matter of who has access to that data. Does it simply go to the highest bidder? Could it be used by nonprofits and researchers?

My primary question is this- if we are just beginning to understand the power of data for predicting the future, what might advanced extraterrestrials be able to do with our data? I’m not suggesting a conspiracy here folks- I don’t think that aliens are busy data mining. But if they did have the ability to plug into our Internet, and creatively bypass security, they might have the ability to see all sorts of things not readily apparent to us. If you were a visiting extraterrestrial that might be very tempting. Not only could you research human history, but also take a look at where humanity might be headed. Could a Euro crash bring down the world economy? What impact will global warming have on our weather patterns? We keep a lot of data around concerning many different things. Data mining could tell extraterrestrials a lot about us.

What would they do with such information? Well, if they had bad intentions they could use it to manipulate us, either behind the scenes or in an outright gesture. If they had good intentions they could use it to warn us of impending problems. Or they could do a little bit of both. That’s the tough thing when speculating about aliens- any answer could be correct. How would we feel about data mining by extraterrestrials? I would imagine after the initial shock we would be pissed-off, and rightfully so. Data mining by extraterrestrials would be a breach of our right to self-determination. Interference in our society would be unacceptable, even if for our own benefit. So, if aliens were digging around in our data, what could they do to make it right? Perhaps the only hope would be complete transparency and a pledge of noninterference. They could tell us exactly what they did and why they did it. I think this would apply to any actions extraterrestrials may have taken to research humans and the planet Earth.

This may sound a bit crazy right now. But interference is a serious issue should we ever experience Direct First Contact. In the meantime, I’m sure humans will find new and interesting ways to make use of all of that data. Let’s just hope that Mark Zuckerberg has good intentions. He’s a lot more worrisome than aliens.

What do you think aliens might do if they were plugged into our Internet? Join the discussion on the Alien First Contact Facebook page.

Extraterrestrial Contact: The Big Reveal

There are two basic scenarios when it comes to extraterrestrial First Contact. The first is a method well-understood by scientists: the long haul. Astrophysicists point out that First Contact would most likely start with the discovery of an engineered signal of some sort, leading to many years of hard work, that being the scientific quest to figure out what the signal means, where it came from and who it was intended for. Scientists understand the value of hard work. What we consider scientific revolutions are usually the result of countless theories, papers, experiments and often leading to dead ends and discouraging results. Scientists pick themselves up and keep going, building on each other’s failures and successes to finally understand something better than before. I would agree with SETI scientists who predict that this is the most likely form of discovery when it comes to extraterrestrial intelligence. Actual First Contact could come decades or centuries later.

The big reveal is much more gratifying in concept. In this scenario, the aliens present themselves to us and offer up many explanations for our many questions. It seems like a simple scenario. I would argue that it is far more complicated for humans. The long haul is what we are prepared for- it fits into our methods of science and would accommodate the time needed for humans to change perspective and to accept the reality of extraterrestrial intelligence. The big reveal affords none of those luxuries. It’s akin to a bomb going off in the human civilization. Depending on the type of contact, and the information revealed, it could be quite disruptive to human society and lead to all sorts of unintended circumstances, most of which would be hard to predict.

In many senses, the big reveal would require much more work for humans in a much shorter time. Because it doesn’t follow our usual patterns of discovery, our sciences would have to find some way of incorporating the alien knowledge, without undermining our scientific methods. We would have to carefully watch our economic systems, which could react in great upheaval to news of alien visitors. Our religions would undergo a period of rapid change as the new perspective tested ancient beliefs. Our social scientists would be hard at work trying to measure the change in human society and predict where we might be headed.

Would the consequences of the big reveal cause aliens to hold back and allow us the luxury of the long haul? We could hope for such a scenario. Really, the only thing to be gained by the big reveal is immediacy, and that would need to have a reason. Why the big rush aliens? Are we destroying our planet? Is there an asteroid heading our way that we are not tracking? Are there other aliens out there who might wish to destroy us?

The only hope in the big reveal is that humans are quite resilient. We do react well to change and adapt as necessary. Would we survive a dramatic Direct First Contact event? It seems likely. The real question is what such an event would do to our future. That would be where the true work lies- ensuring that it is a future that we want and not one that comes from mismanaging the most important discovery in the history of humankind.

What’s your choice of scenario- the long haul or the big reveal? Chime in on the Alien First ContactFacebook page.

Extraterrestrial Contact: Where We’re Headed

Where goes democracy on planet Earth? It’s no small question for us humans, as we struggle to find the best political systems to serve us in ever-changing social environments. So, this week we take a political side street of sorts to examine where we might be headed as technology exerts increasing influence on the nature of our society. Why does this matter for extraterrestrial contact? Who we are and who we are becoming will have a huge impact on our relationship with extraterrestrials if First Contact ever occurs. And perhaps, just perhaps, such developments might cause watching extraterrestrials to finally decide we’re worth conversing with.

Let’s talk about the German Pirate Party. You may have heard of them, as they have recently become more than a novelty- an actual political force to be taken seriously. The Pirate Party won a number of seats in the German legislature back in May. They have one of the loosest platforms you can imagine. The primary foundation of the group lies in freedom of the Internet. It’s essential to what party backers see as our transition to an information society. They call for political transparency. This would come in the form of open architecture content and data sharing to allow citizens to keep better track of government activities. LiquidFeedback is a specific type of software advocated by Pirate Party supporters. It allows people to share opinions and ideas. Most importantly it allows for everyone to suggest changes or new initiatives, and then allows the group to vote on those proposals. This, of course, would be quite messy if used on a widespread basis while it’s being fine-tuned. There has already been quite a bit of debate about personal privacy with such a system. Still, it’s a new way of viewing democracy- one in which the public does much more than merely elect leaders and hope that they act the way they expect. It allows for a level of citizen interaction and involvement far beyond any political system on Earth.

Technology enhanced democracy has a big downside. Right now it would leave all sorts of folks disenfranchised. Such a system may sound fine to those of us who regularly use the Internet and social media. For the poor and under-educated it would prove a daunting obstacle to overcome. Democracy for the rich and well-educated is not democracy at all. The digital divide would become a chasm.

However, it does offer an exciting glimpse into the future of humankind. Perhaps we are headed into an information age that transforms our day to day lives? It’s much more than iPhone apps that allow you to easily complain about dinner. It’s a level of human interaction beyond what we can currently understand. Perhaps it’s the movement of the individual human to a greater web mind of sorts? I know that sounds scary. One would imagine such a development would take many generations to develop.

Is this something aliens would understand? Is it a form of societal development that they have already achieved? Would this glimpse of technological possibility help us better understand extraterrestrial civilizations? Perhaps. In the meantime the Pirate Party makes for an interesting story. Let’s see if they can hold onto, and develop, such radical technological ideas when faced with the reality of government responsibility. Great ideas are only great if you can make them work.

What do you think of the Pirate Party? Will democracy be transformed by technology? Speak out on the Alien First Contact Facebook page.

Extraterrestrial Contact: Who’s in Charge?

Let’s say that aliens make contact with Earth, either directly or through a high information signal. The question is this: who’s in charge of our response? Quite understandably, our best minds working on the subject of extraterrestrial intelligence have been focusing their attention on finding a signal. There has been very little thought paid to how humans might organize their response. Alan Boyle of theMSNBC Cosmic Log recently brought the issue up in an interview with Seth Shostak of the SETI Institute. The hook for his piece is a new, and rather silly, survey conducted by the National Geographic Channel for the new TV show “Chasing UFOs.” Boyle breaks down the astonishing results. Yes, I’m being sarcastic…not about Boyle, who feels the same way, but in regards to the rather ridiculous questions and results, such as 65 percent of those polled thought President Obama would do a better job dealing with extraterrestrial contact than Mitt Romney (that’s actually one of the best questions). As usual, though, Mr. Boyle goes beyond the silliness and has a rather good discussion with Shostak. One of the topics was who should be in charge. Scientists have some initial protocols for how discovery of a signal should be handled, but they don’t go very far, and understandably so- extraterrestrial diplomacy would be a matter for governments and world bodies, not necessarily scientists. And yet governments and world bodies have made little, if any, preparation for how diplomacy might occur in a First Contact situation. Shostak goes as far to say “nobody’s in charge.”

The situation does leave me a bit perplexed. There is only one organization that represents most of the countries of this world. For me, it is clear the United Nations would be charged with formulating this response. The only way to make sure that the big nations don’t dominate the discussion is to take such diplomatic considerations out of the UN Security Council (where it would inevitably land at first) and into the General Assembly as soon as possible.

Scientists have been clearly dismissive of the United Nations when it comes to extraterrestrial contact and for good reason. Jill Tarter and others have brought many recommendations to the United Nations, only to have them be ignored or assigned to bureaucratic oblivion. However, if First Contact does occur the scientific community will need to get beyond that lack of foresight on the part of the UN and help to support the UN role in diplomacy. It’s quite simply the only system that makes sense. Sure, the UN will need advice from all sorts of folks, including the much more proactive and imaginative scientists in the International Astronomical Union. The diplomacy, though, needs to be a process that all countries, with all levels of scientific achievement, can participate equally. That’s going to be tough for those of us in the United States, Russia and China. We will feel some right to lead the efforts, because of our scientific achievements and our space exploration. While we will be, in effect, leading such things behind the scenes, it’s essential that all nations on Earth participate in the process. First Contact is a moment for all humans, not just those in wealthy nations. The United Nations General Assembly is the only group that has a ready-made forum for interaction between all nations.

Will the need ever arise? Who knows? But if it does we will need to scramble and answer the big question quickly: who’s in charge? Let’s hope that we make the logical choice of the United Nations and then move on to the bigger issues at hand.

Who do you think should be in charge in a First Contact situation? Let’s talk on the Alien FirstContact Facebook page.

Extraterrestrial Contact: Seven Questions

Biology and technology will be important issues to consider in a First Contact situation if it occurs some day. Here are a few questions I ponder when considering human biology, technology and our perception of aliens. I know that it's impossible to speculate about alien life, but knowing human nature we can discuss how we might react to extraterrestrials.

1. Are human biological imperatives still driving our civilization?

It certainly seems so. Fighting, fornication and social systems are all about survival and all living things on Earth are in the survival business.

2. Can civilizations develop beyond their biological imperatives?

We have certainly sought to control birth and conflict. Perhaps it is part of an evolutionary trend?

3. Will technology allow us greater control over biology, environment and social systems?

 That seems likely, especially in the functions of our bodies. We use technology to control biology, environment and social systems. Technological developments would create more possibilities for greater control.

4. Might alien civilizations have grown in the same way?

One would imagine that intelligent aliens would also use technology to control their biology and environment. It would be a natural survival function for intelligent life. Social systems get more complicated, as those would depend on the nature of alien life. They may not have social systems in the form we understand. It could be a complex set of interactions well-beyond our comprehension. Still, the use of technology to control biology and environment would be an important commonality with humans.

5. Could this control of biology and environment lead to a virtual world and perhaps machine-based life?

That would certainly allow for the ultimate manipulation of biology and environment.

6. Would this type of intelligence have an impact on our relationship with a highly advanced alien civilization?

 That seems likely. Commonalities will strengthen the relationship and differences will weaken the relationship in a First Contact situation with humans.

7. Will we have to get beyond our differences to have a reasonable relationship with an extraterrestrial civilization?

Clearly and it will most likely be a challenge.

What do you think about the importance of technological development in the relationship with an extraterrestrial civilization? Chime in on the Alien First Contact Facebook page.

Extraterrestrial Contact: What the Romans Taught Us

One planet, one people- citizens of the universe. I’ve written that phrase many times on this blog. It’s not a very original concept. In fact, “One Planet, One People Please” was a popular Seals and Crofts song. The citizens of the universe line has a surprising origin. It may sound like cliché to us now. It came from the Stoic philosophers in ancient Rome, and in particular the emperor Marcus Aurelius. The Stoics believed that men owed two allegiances. One was decided by birth- that of city and country. The other was a divine allegiance to all life. That greater connection is where Aurelius described himself as a citizen of the universe.

What does this have to do with extraterrestrial contact? The Stoics provide a good read these days as we anticipate the possibility of extraterrestrial intelligence. We have been bound to Earth for so long we have failed to properly contemplate our connection with the universe. It’s something the Stoics thought of as a natural perspective and it’s one that requires work. The daily challenges of human existence can divorce us from that perspective, and most importantly from our greater connection to each other. Lest you think this is purely pagan thinking, I might point out that early Christians took a number of ideas from the Stoics. Christianity in its early years had a mystical side and often included writings about a wider connection to the universe.

Where did we lose all of this? In those daily challenges. We have been struggling for so long here on Earth that many of us have failed to contemplate the universe and what it means to be human in that universe. It’s much easier for astrophysicists- they work with the majesty of stars and galaxies each day. Some of us choose to look upward in wonder and contemplate the reality of our situation. Where does humanity fall in the universal realm?

So, forgive the 1980s pop-Roman philosopher mash up. It just makes sense. In contemplating our role in the wider universe we can’t help but consider our connection to each other here on this little planet orbiting the sun. One planet, one people- citizens of the universe. I think Emperor Aurelius would have appreciated the rewrite.

Is there a place for slogans in First Contact? Does it matter what humans think of each other in the wake of First Contact? Let’s hear from you on the Alien First Contact Facebookpage.

Extraterrestrial Contact: Controlling Humanity

If an alien civilization had the technology to travel to our solar system they would be, by default, more technologically advanced than us. What concerns does that present for humans? I think it goes well beyond the alien invader speculation that Hollywood loves so much (frankly, I don’t think they even care about aliens, just the premise it provides for blowing stuff up and special effects).  There could be much easier ways to control the human race.

Probably more effective, and a lot less costly, would be a vicious computer virus that would shut down the Internet. At this point in our history that one action could plunge our world into chaos. An organized attack on our electric grid could do even worse. Such catalysts could send us into our own self-destructive reactions- institutional collapse and violence.

Aliens with advanced technology could attempt to impact our civilization in many more subtle ways. If they have robust data manipulation abilities they could use our own data to predict future human actions and developments. This could also present them with ways to subtly push our actions in certain directions.

Look at our fragile world economy. A sneeze in the European Union (okay, a big sneeze) causes our 401-Ks to lose thousands of dollars overnight (for those of us lucky enough to still have such things). The world is growing closer each year in economic interdependence. Manipulation of our economic system via computers could be a way to not only disrupt human civilization, but perhaps with subtle manipulation, force it in certain directions. Gentle pushes here and there could be the most dangerous, because we might never know they are occurring.

I’m not suggesting that this type of thing is currently happening. I don’t think aliens have visited Earth or attempted any type of First Contact. There is no valid evidence of such things and until presented with such, I’ll be keeping these beliefs.

Still, that doesn’t mean it’s not an issue worth considering for the future. The militaries of countries across the globe would probably go on high alert in a First Contact situation. It would behoove us to have a similar vigilance with our economic links, Internet security and other technological systems. It would be a while after First Contact, perhaps a long-while, before we could truly understand alien intentions and motivations. A little prudence could go a long way in the meantime.

What do you think? Am I being paranoid? Join the conversation on the Alien First Contact Facebook page.

Extraterrestrial Contact: The Fundamental Human Rights

There are two fundamental human rights in any First Contact situation. Humans have the right to know if extraterrestrial intelligence is discovered. Humans also have the right to be part of the conversation about how to move forward after First Contact.

These statements may sound obvious, but on dissection I think you’ll see where I’m going with this. Clearly humans are going to be involved in any First Contact situation. The big question is which humans and, perhaps more importantly, which institutions those humans represent. I believe that the fundamental human rights listed above apply to all of us. That means that fairly quickly after First Contact all of humanity should be made aware of the discovery. And then all humans, in every nation on Earth, should be part of the conversation about what to do next.

Now, that said, there are reasons that we have organizations and institutions. It would be tough to hear from more than 7 billion people, let alone come to a consensus. There will have to be representation. I have stated here before that I believe the only way that representation can occur is through the United Nations. The General Assembly should be the deciding body in how the process moves forward After First Contact. This would not be an easy path, but it would be a necessary one. Most nations on Earth are represented in the General Assembly. It would provide a mechanism for bringing in alternative views. It could provide an open forum for discussion and debate.

The key to the entire process is transparency. We have the established media networks and Internet platforms to ensure that everyone on Earth can know exactly what is happening. This can only occur if the institutions and organizations involved in the First Contact process support transparency at every step.

Why do I worry about this? It’s often assumed that First Contact would be controlled by science or government. SETI scientists have done their best to assert the human right of knowledge- suggesting that scientific discovery of alien life should be shared quickly with the public, once that discovery has had time for rigorous confirmation. However, the right to an open debate and discussion is less discussed. Part of the problem is the endless nature of speculation. If we don’t know how First Contact will occur or anything about the nature of extraterrestrials, how can we possibly determine what should happen next? I agree that a detailed outline of the path forward After First Contact would be a waste of time. There are simply too many variables. A general framework could be determined, though, and that framework could set the tone for human response to First Contact. We may not know anything about extraterrestrials (if there are even extraterrestrials out there at all) but we do have an understanding of our human society and how we interact. This is an important part of the First Contact equation.

There is a dichotomy in this transparency and open discussion. If members of an extraterrestrial civilization were willing to share with us their knowledge of science we would have to make decisions about how we would handle such information. We may decide that some information has to be locked away for a time, until our sciences can catch up and truly embrace new knowledge. While information freedom advocates may cry foul, if the process in deciding such things is open and transparent, it still involves all humans in the conversation.

Some nations and cultures could be resistant to such openness. They could see alien contact as a threat to stability. They may try to keep information from their people. I don’t think that would last very long.  First Contact would be an extraordinary event, beyond any other in history. An attempt to keep the substance of such an event from the public would be like trying to establish a dike against a continuous tsunami. At first that dike might hold, but as information trickled in from the outside world, eventually it would undermine the dike, most likely washing away the restrictive government and institutions in the process.

Public opinion polls will be an important part of the worldwide discussion. Those opinions are likely to change quickly as new information comes out. It will be important to provide this measure of the pulse of humanity, so that the representatives of nations can make better decisions.

There is one thing I can guarantee. No matter how the process unfolds it will not be perfect by any measure. It will be contentious, confusing and at times chaotic. However, it will be our human conversation. We will discuss and we will move forward- as one planet, one people- citizens of the universe.

What do you think about transparency and open debate? Check out the Alien First Contact Facebook page to get involved in the discussion.

Extraterrestrial Contact: We’ll help you if…

It’s the classic extraterrestrial First Contact human cliché. The aliens drop out of the sky. They say hello and we’re here to help you. The fantasy side of this has the aliens showing us all sorts of cool technology. That could include a more efficient means of power generation, ways to fix our damaged environment and the keys to interstellar travel. I certainly have expressed great misgivings about an information dump for many other reasons. But what if they also want something from us in return for the help?

Your answer is probably dependent on what they want. If they just want to be our friends, well fine (although that would worry me greatly…much could be done under the guise of friendship). What if they demand that we get rid of our nuclear weapons? How about giving up our space travel research? Maybe they want us to follow their religion? Or perhaps they want us to treat animals on Earth in a more respectful way?

The list, of course, is endless, which is always the problem with speculation. It does bring up a point worth considering. What will we do if they make demands? What world body would consider such things? How would the human debate occur to decide whether or not we wanted to accept such conditions?

Humans are a stubborn bunch, so demands may be a mistake on the part of alien visitors. Demands could galvanize a movement that would already exist: the no-go group. The no-go group would exist in any First Contact scenario. They’re the people who don’t want any interaction with aliens, under any circumstances. In most First Contact scenarios, such a group would probably be on the fringe of the global conversation. However, if demands are made of humans, that could change. No-go could be the majority response.

Perhaps visiting aliens would take some time before saying hello, time used to examine the human civilization and develop a decent public relations campaign. For this reason I think it would be highly unlikely that aliens would make such demands. But who knows, public relations is a human concept, they might not give a damn about our feelings or reactions. I suspect though, that if the aliens are seeking to change our behavior in some fashion, they would be very interested in our feelings and reactions.

There’s an easier way to accomplish change on planet Earth. Aliens could simply lead by example. If they are vegetarians, or perhaps won’t eat any plants or animals, they could simply explain how they came to be that way and show the benefits it has brought to their civilization. Then let the humans figure it out for themselves. Sure, it will take longer, but it comes without a threat. And in the end, any offer of help in return for human change is a threat. It’s like high school. If you want people to follow you, just stand around and be cool. Eventually someone will start following. I kind of like the idea of aliens being the aloof, cool kids on the school yard. I bet it would work.

Join the discussion on the Alien First Contact Facebook page.