Extraterrestrial Contact: Are We Ready?

The popular media, and in many respects the popular imagination, likes to portray aliens as either positive or negative. The beneficent extraterrestrials want to save us and the malevolent ones want to hurt us. Needless to say, the negative portrayals are much more frequent. Angry aliens can blow stuff up and Hollywood loves to blow stuff up.

There is another possibility in extraterrestrial First Contact: aliens that don’t act like humans. I know this is a shocking suggestion, but it seems likely any aliens we meet won’t behave like humans at all. They will behave like aliens. That’s not as much fun for us to portray because that type of speculation can get really complicated. For the most part the complicated considerations are left to the science fiction writers, science fiction fans and SETI scientists.

If an extraterrestrial civilization has the ability to travel the stars it seems likely they will have some sort of science, a framework for how they build knowledge. That logical approach (their logic, not ours) could lead to another motivation for aliens to say hello to humans: benchmarks. Let’s say that an alien civilization has been studying us for some time (and I’m not saying this is the case, it’s a scenario folks). They watch our development and wait until we meet certain criteria. I call them benchmarks because they could be a set of technological or sociological measures. Why would they care about our society and technology? It could be the point when they regularly decide that contact should be made with an up and coming civilization. It could be a point where our society is ready to handle the challenges of First Contact. It might be a situation where they decide we are on the brink of discovering the truth of extraterrestrial intelligence ourselves, through astronomy and other sciences. It could be something we have never even considered, something important to them and obscure to us.

So, we reach the benchmarks and they decide to say hello. What does that say about them? The answer could in many respects be more unnerving than the good or bad aliens. How about the dispassionate, logical aliens? Think of Spock in Star Trek but ramped up several levels. Perhaps they are actually machine intelligence and over the course of evolution they have lost the emotions that we might recognize. That truth would be troubling to us because we would have a hard time feeling connected to such beings. Whether you love them or hate them the good and bad aliens are forms that we can understand. There are plenty of good humans and far too many bad humans. And, of course, the essence of humanity means that every one of us has plenty of good and evil wrapped up inside. Purely logical aliens would be hard to warm up to, one way or another. And if they’re machine based there will be plenty of suspicion based on that characteristic. We have decades of popular fiction dedicated to the notion of our machines taking over the Earth. Would we be able to conceive of machine intelligence as having “being”? I suppose that might depend on how they communicate with us. If they have studied us well, they would want to do their best to communicate in a way that we would understand and also in a way that we would be comfortable. It could be as simple as adopting our colloquial language style and paying attention to sociology. If the aliens are bright enough to travel the stars it seems likely they could come up with a solid public relations campaign.

I think the dispassionate aliens are the most likely scenario if they do travel the stars. Human emotions can be debilitating for both individuals and society as a whole. Emotions may drive us in the survival stage of existence, but with the advent of technology emotions can prove dangerous, not just on a local level, but on a global level. Humans 200 years ago could get mad and perhaps kill 100,000 in a horrible, long-lasting war. Today war can end human civilization and destroy the planet in a matter of hours.

Have we reached the benchmarks and are there aliens out there ready to say hello? Who knows? They could just as easily be too busy with their own matters to even care.

Extraterrestrial Contact: What Would Be Best?

Let’s say that an extraterrestrial civilization with space travel capabilities is out there monitoring Earth and human activity, trying to decide when it would be best to say hello. I’m not saying that is the case, it’s just a bit of speculation. If there isn’t an immediate need to say hello they would face a decision. Would it be better for humans to discover extraterrestrial intelligence in a process that would proceed slowly or quickly? There are benefits to each approach.

In the slow scenario an alien civilization would let humans do the work. The aliens would go about their business until we reached a point in technology and exploration when we discover their presence, most likely through some detectable signature of technology. A wait and see approach would allow humans to digest the idea of extraterrestrial intelligence. It would likely take many years of research to determine the nature and meaning of a signal discovered coming from far-off space. That might create enough pressure for humans to finally build a framework for responding to extraterrestrial intelligence diplomacy needs. Diplomacy doesn’t have to mean being to being contact, it can just as easily describe the formation of messages to send to a far-off extraterrestrial civilization. The time would allow humans to process the news that extraterrestrial intelligence exists in a calm and rational manner, because there is no immediate threat. At some point, the watchful extraterrestrials could then decide it’s time to say hello by sending a detectable signal with a specific message. The relationship could develop from there.

The slow method could also cause issues with human trust. A signal based approach relies on scientific groups and probably governmental leaders to do the work. How much transparency they choose to have in the process would probably be determined by the group of scientists making the discovery and the nature of the government of the country in which the discovery is made. Most scientists believe in the open sharing of information for the advancement of science. Any attempts by governments to control such a discovery would probably be met with leaks to the media. In some countries, with tight controls on their scientists, leaks might not occur for months or years. No matter what the scenario such information once revealed would be viewed with a fair amount of suspicion from others on the planet. Are you really telling us everything? Are you collaborating with aliens to gain some form of advantage? It could set countries against one another and that could lead to serious conflicts.

In a fast scenario the extraterrestrials could send representatives to our solar system. Perhaps they would still want to signal an introduction first. This would allow a brief time of consideration by humans, before the dramatic event of physical First Contact. The fast approach has the benefit of capturing the complete and total attention of the planet at once, in a way that would have far more impact than the slow method. One would imagine that aliens considering such a thing would do so for a reason. It could be that they want to see us join together as a civilization. Perhaps they are concerned about our environmental problems.

The primary downside to the fast method is threat. Any physical extraterrestrial presence in our solar system will be perceived with some degree of threat, not matter how friendly or welcoming the extraterrestrials may be. Fear and negative reactions could be the by-product of perceived threat, and if the situation is not carefully managed it could lead to chaotic situations here on Earth.

On the positive side, a dramatic and fast First Contact event could bypass all of the entanglements of the scientific process and government intervention. It could be conducted in a way that was designed to reach all of the people of Earth in an equal fashion. It could be done with great transparency and openness. This could mean less conflict between nations and an actual joining together of nations in response. From this writer’s perspective, this approach would have great advantages in the long-term human response to First Contact.

Of course, it all goes back to motivation. We can speculate all we want about extraterrestrial motivation. We won’t know until First Contact occurs, if it ever occurs at all. I think there is one thing that we can agree on: any extraterrestrials making the effort to say hello will have a motivation of some sort. What they hope to accomplish may decide the method they use to the make the introduction.

Extraterrestrial Contact: Saviors and Destroyers

There’s always been a semi-religious fervor to the consideration of extraterrestrial First Contact. It’s an understandable feeling as such an event would change humanity. It does however, seem to cloud the judgment and quite frankly we’re all in the same boat. History professor George Basalla examines the issue, in more depth than most, in his book “Civilized Life in the Universe: Scientists on Intelligent Extraterrestrials.” Basalla does an excellent job showcasing the robust debate that has surrounded the search for extraterrestrial intelligence (SETI) for decades now.

Carl Sagan, a man who I admire for his incredible creativity and vision, was one of the biggest proponents of aliens as saviors. I don’t mean in some traditional religious sense, but in a more secular sense. At various points in his career, Sagan lists many human problems associated with technology and posits a possible solution coming from the stars. Extraterrestrial civilizations could provide humans with the technology to solve those problems. Many of those fascinated by the possibilities of life After First Contact choose to focus on the possible benefits to humanity. Aliens could provide us with the knowledge to advance our technology, which could, in turn, help us solve our environmental dilemma and provide a better balance for the seven billion humans on this one small planet. Or aliens could provide us some great new philosophy that could help us overcome our conflicts and enter a new, peaceful age. Basalla points out that these beliefs came of age in the 1960s. It was a time when humans were faced with the stark realities of technology: a nuclear arms race grown beyond all reason, a global battle between two forms of government, pollution and civil unrest. Not that we don’t face our share of those problems now, but they were birthed and heightened in the 1960s and by the 1970s we were quite worried about the future of humanity. So, was the prospect of extraterrestrial help an easy fix, a kind of faith that would allow us to hope for a better future? Perhaps. Basalla raises the point to question whether our hopes have clouded the scientific judgment of SETI scientists. That’s a sobering and reasonable question.

The argument has power because of the often overly optimistic hopes of the scientists for life in the wake of First Contact. I think it’s important to note that the real world is rarely so simple or nice. It’s usually quite gritty and complicated. To think that First Contact would be purely positive in outcome for humanity is naïve. It’s belies the one thing that humans know for sure: life is struggle and struggle is life.

There are plenty of those who fall in the opposite side of the spectrum. They view extraterrestrial First Contact as having a negative, if not disastrous, outcome for humans. Those doomsayers include Stephen Hawking, one of the most respected physicists of our time.

There is a more measured approach courtesy of Biologist George Wald. He spoke out in a 1972 symposium sponsored by Boston University and NASA. Basalla says Wald's concern was the prospect of humans becoming reliant on alien technology and the impact such dependency might have on the human civilization. If we undermine our scientific process, what will become of us? If you have been reading this blog for any period of time you know that I share the same concern. Even if we were to be handed alien technology (and hopefully with a massive tutorial) I think we would be nuts to just accept whatever we are told. Gatekeeping would be essential. We would have to consider the impact of the information we received and decide if we are truly ready. Perhaps we could just find out about the aliens themselves and their world? They could keep quiet about their technology and allow human science to grow naturally.

It seems unlikely that extraterrestrials would be saviors or destroyers. No matter what their motivation, contact between two civilizations, separated by the vast distances of space for such a long time, would be a complicated enterprise fraught with potential problems and holding many opportunities. If it ever does occur we will need to walk through the landscape after First Contact as if it were a minefield: watching out for the worst and searching for the best.

Extraterrestrial Contact: The One versus the Many

We humans see ourselves as the one- the beginning and the end of intelligent life in the universe. We speculate about what lies beyond that understanding. We tell ourselves that there may be other civilizations in the universe. The truth though, when it is revealed some day, will pierce us like no other discovery in our history. There will most likely be a sense of loss. We will no longer be at the intellectual center of the universe. There will be a sense of wonder. We will look to the night sky with new-found awe. It will be a passage from childhood and into adulthood for our race. We will lose the one and become part of the many, joining beings across the universe. Of course, it's only our perspective that really changes. Whatever greater truth is out there exists with or without our enlightenment.

Humans will take these huge steps together and hopefully, united. It will be a tremendous responsibility for people alive when First Contact occurs. They will take actions that will shape our civilization for many generations to come. Becoming part of the many won't cause us to disintegrate. It can help us to grow stronger and find a new purpose. It’s time to wake up. A new day will be dawning for humanity.

Extraterrestrial Contact: Unity versus Globalism

If you have read this blog for a while you know that I make frequent references to the need for the United Nations to take the lead diplomatic role in extraterrestrial First Contact. I don’t believe that First Contact has occurred and I don’t know when, or if, it might ever occur. I do think we need to contemplate the matter, so that if it does occur, we at least have a general framework for response.

Part of my argument has been that humanity is moving into a new era, with or without First Contact. The era is one of global interdependence and unity. Technology is bringing nations and blocs of nations closer together. It is drawing us closer in many different ways and those ties grow stronger every day. Ultimately, this is an important concept for the consideration of First Contact. Global unity means that perhaps, humans could speak with one voice in a First Contact situation. Global unity provides focus for moving forward After First Contact.

I’m not saying that we are there yet, but we seem to be moving in the direction of global unity. Recent economic challenges have highlighted global interdependence and perhaps brought world economic systems closer together. I heard an analyst on CNN calling for Europe to welcome Asian investment in the same way that many Asian nations have been welcoming Western investment for decades. Calls for China to step in and help to prop up the fragile European Union would have been rare even just a few years ago. There is a realization that countries as different as China and France have common bonds that can be strengthened, providing benefits to both nations.

There are those who would call global unity another name for globalism. Globalism is the term most often used by conservative thinkers who are worried about the rise of international government. They see global unity as potentially harmful to the United States, as it would leave us as one nation in many, rather than the global superpower leading the way. Fear of an international government is an extension of fear of big government. If big government on a national scale is bad, the size and weight of an international government would be very bad, or so the thinking goes. I don’t disagree. Big government can at times be stupid and oppressive. It can diminish human endeavor and bind us in ever-growing bureaucracy. It can take away the power of individuals to join together at the most basic level: neighborhoods, churches and community associations. Does this sound like an extreme view on my part? Take a look at China, where entire neighborhoods are bulldozed to make way for business development. Local community organizations in China are viewed as a threat unless they are controlled by and connected to the government. American conservatives see this and wonder what will happen to our democracy. Would an international government wield such enormous power that it would negate cultural individualism and community choice? Would the scale of world government exasperate all of the worst aspects of big government? Perhaps. It’s a reasonable and understandable concern.

The fear of globalism is lead by fringe groups in the United States, often tied to Christian ministry groups. It is interesting because it’s an area where the right and left come full circle, as do many libertarian views. Many anti-globalists believe that big government and big business are working together to take control on an international level. Probe Ministries is just one of the many Christian groups taking this stance

If you then check out the group Conservative Action Alerts and you can see the slow movement towards the mainstream. Then view this statement on CNN by Republican Presidential candidate Ron Paul and listen to the audience reaction to his concerns.

Fear of globalism is creeping its way into mainstream conservative thought. Anyone who thinks it will not be a significant American issue in coming years, with or without extraterrestrial contact, is naïve.

I would argue that there is a significant difference between global unity and globalism as perceived by libertarians. Global unity merely means that we are able to make decisions as one civilization and respond to the challenges that need a global response. A national response, or in reality many national responses, to extraterrestrial First Contact would be ridiculous. It would be disjointed, confusing and perhaps even dangerous. Extraterrestrial diplomacy would need to be carried out by one world body with the involvement of all nations. The only group currently capable of doing such is the United Nations. Giving the United Nations the power to handle diplomatic relations with extraterrestrials is not the first step toward world government. It is a logical reaction to a significant challenge.

There will be those who are afraid that extraterrestrial First Contact will lead humanity to a place where cultures and national identities are lost in a rising tide of universalism. This does not have to be the case. There is no reason why humans can’t have global unity for the challenges that require a global response, while still maintaining national governments and cultural identities. I think we have seen a renewed emphasis on localism in the world. People realize that some of the best things in life happen at the local level and economies of scale are not always the best for human quality of life.

This may sound like an esoteric discussion now. In the wake of First Contact, I would imagine it will be one of the concerns in human reaction. It’s important to be able to separate genuine worries about the impact of a massive world government with what would be the realities of First Contact. Global unity is the only possible answer to the challenges presented by First Contact. Thoughtful conservative voices would need to lead the charge in the effort to separate global unity and global response from the fear of globalism.

Extraterrestrial Contact: The Day the Earth Stood Still

Let’s face it…Klaatu blew it. In the 1951 film and the 2008 remake of “The Day the Earth Stood Still” the fictional alien engages Earthlings with a really poor plan for introduction. He is taken into custody by the U.S. military nearly immediately and never does accomplish his goal of addressing the United Nations. I suppose that’s what happens when you assume a human form: you make bad decisions.

I can’t help it- I get sucked in by this movie every time it’s on television. Sure, the 1951 film is a billion times better. However, the 2008 remake has some interesting plot lines. My favorite is Klaatu as victim. Why on Earth (sorry for the pun) he/ it would decide to approach humanity in this fashion is beyond me. He seems upset at having to deal with the U.S. Military and yet he falls right into their hands. I know, it’s just a science fiction movie and Hollywood has never been known for intelligent remakes. The movie does still make a powerful statement about the arrogance of the human race, something that the original conveyed with much more grace. We think we have exclusive rights to this planet and most likely we will make the same assumption for the solar system and then extend our privilege out into the galaxy. I can understand why the aliens might harbor some resentment. Still, landing your ship in a public place and immediately provoking a hostile human response is a dumb-ass way to go about influencing human decision-making. If you want to make a difference simply come out and say what you mean. If there’s truly no hope for humanity, don’t even bother trying to save us. If there is hope than for gosh sakes try a more effective public relations campaign. When it comes to extraterrestrial First Contact it’s all about human public relations. Aliens contacting humans would have a defined objective. To carry out that objective they would want to carefully consider how they introduced themselves and how they presented themselves. Some would argue that that is a human perspective and it certainly is a human perspective. What other perspective would you take if your goal is to accomplish something involving humanity? They have to take us into account and consider the complexity of our civilization before making First Contact. Unlike Klaatu, one would expect that real aliens might actually be intelligent (sorry, Keanu Reeves). That means they would likely carefully study human civilization before coming to say hello. Any civilization with the technology to travel to Earth would have some system of research. Why wouldn’t you have alien social scientists studying human behavior, international politics and communication techniques? It would provide the basis for a well-developed public relations campaign.

If your goal is to accomplish something in regards to human civilization it would be best to do your homework. Klaatu would have to be graded an F on that assignment.

Extraterrestrial Contact: Dangers as a Reason to Say Hello

If aliens have been monitoring human activity (and I’m not saying they have) there could be a reason for the lack of contact. As many people have pointed out over the years, watchful extraterrestrials might believe that we are not ready for contact. Or they might believe that we would best develop without outside interference. If that is the case, what reason would they have to contact us? Science fiction writers have often postulated that First Contact could occur because extraterrestrials want to save us from some impending doom. That fictional doom has included nuclear war, environmental disaster and asteroids threatening Earth.

Preventing disaster on Earth suggests a caretaking, paternal role for extraterrestrials. The aliens act as the Calvary, coming to the rescue of inept humans. Such a concept is of course exceedingly anthropocentric in nature. It assumes that human feelings such as altruism extend to alien races, which they may or may not. We don’t know any extraterrestrials, so we can’t really ask.

But for the sake of speculation, let’s say that watchful aliens are worried about events on Earth. What might precipitate an extraterrestrial intervention? The use of technology is an obvious answer. Many of the aforementioned plot lines involve aliens providing humans with an advanced technological fix for our technology-caused problems. That fix could be a non-polluting form of energy or a way to prevent global warming through atmospheric manipulation.

However, assistance could come in a less-direct form. Let’s take a look at a major current challenge here on Earth: the economy. We have entered into a curious cycle in the last few years. Many nations on Earth are experiencing economic difficulties. While the factors causing such problems vary from country to country, the interdependent nature of the modern world economic system means that economic trouble in one country can spread to others quickly. Can you imagine Americans 50 years ago caring about Greek financial woes? Technology and other factors have contributed to a level of interdependence between banks and other economic systems unimaginable just a few decades ago.

You can argue that current world economic problems are cyclical and that most countries will manage to climb out of recession and experience positive growth. Some analysts though, are taking a negative view. Adam Davidson of NPR’s “Planet Money” published an excellent piece in the New York Times Magazine recently (his columns are always a highlight of the magazine). He examined economic doomsday scenarios, featuring some well-regarded economists. Nouriel Roubini of New York University was one of the few to predict an impending U.S. housing market crisis in 2005. Today his worry is China. As Davidson points out, Roubini believes that Chinese banks are headed toward a meltdown reminiscent of the U.S. banking crisis of 2008. The reason is basically the same: a massive economic bubble finally bursting. In the Chinese case it is state-sponsored and capitalism-fueled building projects, such as the ghost cities of China. These massive projects have a “if you build it they will come” mentality. Entire cities with skyscrapers and infrastructure are built well before there is a need. The speculators and the Chinese government hope that Chinese workers will move in to seek new opportunity. Crazy? Perhaps. Dangerous? Perhaps. But how would the rest of us be impacted? The collapse of the Chinese banking system would cause shock waves across the world economic system. It would cause capital and to dry up and lending to freeze up. It could lead to consequent crises- such as a second American economic meltdown due to government indebtedness and currency policies.

Humanity is in a precarious position. We have a vast system of economic interdependence that is loosely structured and not very well controlled. While there are some quasi-government systems that hope to mediate some decision making regarding world economic issues, they are largely without any real power. Groups like the G-20, the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund act as facilitators to bring nations together in a common discussion. They also control some central banking activity. It’s a start, but it still leaves us with a powerful world economic engine and no one truly at the controls.

We are also in a fragile state with our information technology. We are almost completely reliant on the Internet and information technology for many aspects of our lives. Yet, this too is a complex system without anyone at the controls. Cyber terrorism has become a popular worry. One massive virus could impact countries across the globe. A cyber war could be devastating. No one would die and yet human civilization could be set back by decades or even centuries.

I don’t necessarily believe that any of these things will occur. But they are just a couple of things that altruistic aliens might watch closely. If they truly care about our development as a civilization, they might decide to take action to prevent the massive damage that either scenario could cause.

How could aliens help us? Well, the cyber threat could have direct technological repairs. The fragile world economic state would be a tougher thing to fix, since essentially we’re the only ones that can solve the problem. First Contact would provide one powerful message: we need to join closer together as a civilization and find ways to strengthen our common institutions with more established global linkages and most importantly, control over those linkages. This solution would take a while. The shock caused by First Contact could just as easily throw our economic system into chaos as it could help provide stability. That’s part of the problem with speculation- when you get this far out in thought you are in completely uncharted waters. I don’t think anyone on the planet would know what might happen in such a situation. Perhaps aliens have been studying us and have their own predictions. You would imagine altruistic aliens would have reason to believe that introducing themselves would benefit the human race.

I have a final thought that is a bit disquieting. There is a flip-side to this conversation. Perhaps the aliens are not altruistic are all, but rather malevolent. Hollywood loves to show aliens blowing things up on Earth. In reality, there would be a much easier way to bring humans to their knees: plant your own computer virus and watch it run wild. Then, when our society has stopped cold and chaos is taking over the planet you can step in with an offer: we’ll fix it, but now we’re in charge. What could we do?

We’ve made ourselves a rather complicated world here on Earth. Technological developments have given us wonders and improved the lives of many. However, it comes with a cost. We are now subject to forces that we don’t fully understand and that we currently don’t have an organized system to reign in those forces. We’re like a baby behind the wheel of a Lamborghini. Maybe we’ll keep it under control. But there’s always the chance that our need for speed will drive us over the brink. If there are altruistic aliens looking out for us we can only hope that they’ll spot the fatal curve in the road before it’s too late. In the meantime, since there are probably not any aliens out there examining us, we had better roll up our sleeves and solve our own damn problems.

Extraterrestrial Contact: The Fourth Adjustment

I had a pill stuck in my throat the other day. It was annoying as hell and as I downed glasses of water it reminded me of something. Pardon the coarse analogy, but it came to me that the pill is the realization by humanity that we are not alone in the universe and not at the center of the universe. It’s something we are, collectively, still trying to swallow. Slowly the pill works its way down. We’re not choking, but it’s a slow, uncomfortable process. Each planetary discovery by the NASA Kepler mission brings us closer to the truth.

The discovery of extraterrestrial life will help in the process. The discovery of extraterrestrial intelligence will speed the process up. Harlow Shapley called this the Fourth Adjustment of how humans view themselves. He refers to the change in geocentric, heliocentric and galactocentric world views. The geocentric and heliocentric views are familiar to us from history. The galactocentric view shifted just in the last few decades, when it was shown that our solar system lies on the edge of the Milky Way. The adjustment effect is to ever broaden human perception of the physical world around us.

Steven Dick argues in his 1995 paper “Consequences of Success in SETI: Lessons from the History of Science” that this Fourth Adjustment has already begun. Popular culture has actively considered the possibility of extraterrestrial intelligence for more than 200 years. Many surveys show that the majority of respondents believe that extraterrestrial life exists. A 2005 poll conducted for the National Geographic Channel even showed that 7 out of 10 Americans surveyed thought that extraterrestrial beings have the ability to travel through space and communicate through deep space.

Humans themselves may be slowly making the Fourth Adjustment, but it appears that human institutions have a ways to go. The U.S. Government cut off spending for the search for extraterrestrial intelligence (SETI) in the 1990s under intense political pressure. The United Nations has yet to act on any major SETI related proposals. That’s understandable- institutions have many pressing needs at this time and supporting SETI research entails political risk. However, technology may be changing institutions whether they like it or not. It’s increasing our economic interdependence. It’s putting the power to force change in the hands of millions of individuals, thanks to social media. The Internet and other communication technology is changing the way we relate to institutions and creating new demands on institutions. As humans across the planet grow closer together with technology, it seems likely that institutions will do so as well. Why is this important for the Fourth Adjustment? Knowledge of extraterrestrial intelligence demands that we view our civilization differently. It makes us consider the human context in the wider universe first and culture and nation based contexts secondarily. Dick says that the shift is happening slowly, but there is still a high likelihood of a significant revolution in thought if extraterrestrial intelligence is ever discovered.

The pill will go down eventually, whether slowly or in a dramatic event. Future generations of humans will view the universe very differently.

Extraterrestrial Contact: Discovery and Response

I’ve been discussing recently possible scenarios for First Contact with an extraterrestrial civilization. It’s a wide-ranging discussion, since it could happen in many different ways, if it ever happens at all. That may sound like the end of the story. But in reality First Contact itself just leads to a bigger question: what happens next? The response to First Contact could perhaps be more important than the discovery. The response will have a large role in determining our future as a civilization.

Most scientists work on the discovery and rightly so; it is undoubtedly the first step. However, the danger lies in the response. If we don’t have a road map to move forward after First Contact we could make knee-jerk decisions and those decisions could be harmful in both the short-term and long-term. First Contact would bring about many challenges across a wide-range of human institutions and endeavors.

It would be impossible to project a plan of response going very far into the future, primarily because much of our response would be determined by the nature of the extraterrestrial civilization, their intentions, the type of First Contact, the degree of impact and the areas of impact. First Contact could simply be a mysterious engineered signal that takes us dozens of years to understand. Or First Contact could be easily understandable and high-information in content, providing many new ideas and many challenges resulting from those new ideas. First Contact could be indirect, as in a long-term conversation across space. First Contact could also be direct, with many immediacy issues, such as threat and diplomacy.

With so many questions it’s easy to suggest that we put aside these considerations and focus on the discovery. I recognize that from a physical sciences perspective that makes sense. However, I believe there is value from a social science perspective in trying to better understand how humans perceive First Contact. That information can help us prepare some initial steps in our response to First Contact. There are many questions unanswered, even in those very first steps. What body should speak for planet Earth? Who should decide what we would say to an extraterrestrial civilization? How can we ensure that all humans are represented in that process? Should there even be representation or should it be controlled by experts in science or government? If researchers in one country make a discovery should it be shared with the world? Should decisions be made in secrecy or should the process be out in the open for all to see?

If you have been reading this blog for very long you can already predict my answers to those questions. I firmly believe that the response to First Contact needs to be determined by a body that represents all of the nations on the planet. All humans have a right to be represented in the process. I don’t think that scientists and government officials should be allowed to work in a vacuum or in secrecy after a signal is confirmed. We need an immediate response by an assigned body with, at the very least, an outline of what parts of that body should be involved in the response. I am speaking of the United Nations. It’s the only world body that represents the great majority of nations on Earth. I think the United Nations needs to have an outline for the first steps after the discovery of a signal. Those steps need to provide for a number of possible scenarios, ranging from the discovery of a mysterious engineered signal, all the way up to Direct First Contact here in our solar system. The U.N. needs to assign specific parts of its organization to the task of response and have a clearly defined decision making process. This needs to include input from the General Assembly along with some organized form of conversation and debate. Each of these steps needs to be completely transparent and open to all humans. There needs to be a mechanism to ensure that the process moves forward, even if the debate is extreme. It is unlikely that everyone will agree to any First Contact response process. Still, decisions will have to be made and humans will need to be able to react quickly, if necessary. The immediacy of the First Contact scenario will be the primary factor in this consideration. The discovery of a mysterious engineered signal could give us years to debate a response plan. Direct First Contact would require an immediate plan.

What we need is a vision for our future After First Contact. We would be entering into a new era of human history. We can either leap into an unknown abyss or take steps down a rough path of our own design. It’s our choice. The decisions need to be made now.

Extraterrestrial Contact: The Most Likely Scenario

For the last few weeks I have been discussing ideas I have for a dramatic and direct extraterrestrial First Contact event. While I enjoy considering such things I don’t think it’s the most likely form of First Contact, if it ever occurs at all.

SETI is the search for extraterrestrial intelligence. It is a scientific effort that involves listening to radio frequencies for signals from outer space and then processing and evaluating the data through computer programs. The goal is to find an engineered signal. Along the way many false signals must be examined and then weeded out. Thus far the effort has not yielded evidence of an engineered signal. However, only a small portion of space has been examined. Efforts today tend to concentrate on star systems where it is more likely that life-sustaining planets may exist. SETI is primarily based in radio astronomy; however it was also moved into a discussion of visual and particle transmissions that might be used by alien civilizations.

I’m a big supporter of the SETI scientific community. It is the only science based method that we have for approaching this huge question. It is conducted by astrophysicists and other scientists who have made the decision to stake their careers in a fringe outpost of the scientific world. Through their dedication and credentials, they have slowly moved the SETI effort closer to the mainstream of science and promoted a larger conversation about issues of extraterrestrial intelligence. They do this at professional risk and with a great deal of personal sacrifice. I applaud them for their efforts.

The primary group leading this effort is the SETI Institute in Mountain View, California. Jill Tarter, Seth Shostack, Douglas Vakoch and the other SETI Institute scientists lead the movement to a better understanding of the search for extraterrestrial intelligence and perhaps just as important, they have been active, vocal advocates for exploring the human response to extraterrestrial intelligence contact issues. They continually base their discussions in the scientific method. This has provided a measure of respectability to the field that didn’t exist a few decades ago.

The International Astronomical Union has also been on the forefront of SETI consideration. The journal Acta Astronautica regularly publishes research papers related to extraterrestrial intelligence. The Royal Society of Great Britain has contributed much with entire journal issues dedicated to the issue and numerous conferences about ETI.

There have been many pioneers who have made this current conversation regarding extraterrestrial contact possible. Frank Drake and those creative astrophysicists, who met in Green Bank, West Virginia in 1961 to discuss the first search effort, set the path forward. Carl Sagan brought the ideas to the general public. Scientists like Paul Davies continue to explore the possibilities with the world.

My blog explores a relatively narrow slice of this conversation, one that the scientists don’t normally have time to consider. They don’t consider it much because it is based almost purely in speculation and science is founded in process and the discovery of fact. I accept that and understand the concern that my blog might raise with them. Still, I encourage you to support the SETI scientific effort and the amazing work being done by scientists worldwide in a number of space exploration fields. The NASA Kepler Mission is literally changing our understanding of the universe on a weekly basis with the discovery of new planets. We must support this scientific effort by letting our lawmakers know that this is important work and an effort that needs to be well funded. The SETI Institute was forced to seek private funding some time ago and you can help them directly. Please do as I have done and donate to the cause. Individual contributions recently brought the Allen Telescope Array back online and that re-started the search for extraterrestrial intelligence.

There are unlikely to be clear and decisive answers to the question of whether we are alone in the universe. The discovery of an engineered signal from far-off in space will likely generate great debate and years of scientific investigation, all of which will occur in the usual human fashion of conflict and debate. Hopefully, this will eventually lead to some degree of understanding. In any event, there is much hard work to be done and any support we can give the scientists involved in such efforts would probably be appreciated.

Extraterrestrial Contact: Shock Value

Last week I reiterated my argument that a direct and dramatic First Contact event might be a good way to introduce an extraterrestrial civilization to the people of planet Earth. I suggested that if extraterrestrials were to fly a spacecraft into Earth atmosphere and fly it above a mid-sized American city, they could engage the world news media directly, bypassing governments and other institutions that might seek to control such a message. There is another reason that such a method might be helpful to visiting extraterrestrials: shock value.

Shock is not always a bad thing. It can provide a period of time in which humans are stunned and do not react in their usual fashion. Why is this beneficial? Well, think of our usual human reactions to global events: self-interest, fear, greed, hegemony and protectionism. Now granted, that’s not the case in major natural disasters, and I think those responses are important for this argument. In a great international crisis we often manage to suspend our conflicts to some degree in order to react to help the effected nation. I think a dramatic and direct First Contact event of the type I have described would create an international crisis of sorts. If managed properly to minimize fear and protectionism, there would be value in the initial period when people are stunned. This period would allow the alien visitors to get a message of introduction to all humans. It provides the opportunity to engage the institutions that would be most beneficial for a positive long-term diplomatic effort. I suggest the United Nations, as it is the world body that represents the most individual nations and that has a framework to support such efforts.

Shock requires people and institutions to react differently at first than they normally might. There has never been any situation close to such an event in human history. There is no established protocol. Previous experience would not apply. It would force people to think, pardon the cliché, out of the box. Now, I don’t think this period of being stunned would last for long, perhaps just a few days or a couple of weeks. Eventually, humans would return to their usual positions and begin to react in the ways they have in the past. This means that much work needs to be done in the stunned period. An entire process for introduction and diplomacy would need to be established and established quickly.

There are, of course, many dangers in shock. The primary concern would probably be the military reaction. Shock could cause the military to respond with force and the result could be disastrous. I think there is something helpful in how we have formulated our reaction to terrorism here in the United States. There have been several circumstances of aircraft doing things considered threatening in the last ten years. In every circumstance the responding fighter pilots have reacted with thoughtful caution. These pilots are trained to evaluate threat in a calm and collected manner. If an alien ship moved in a way to lower the threat perception, a hostile response by humans could be prevented. It would also be important to start a message of introduction as quickly as possible, to provide information and decrease uncertainty.

The other danger of shock comes in our financial system. Such an event would cause extreme uncertainty in the world markets. The markets do not like uncertainty. The stunned period could extend to the markets at first, but that would likely change quickly as people began to consider the financial risk posed by First Contact and tried to engage the financial opportunities that such a revelation would create. Luckily, the past few years have brought a better understanding of the interconnectedness of the global financial system and strengthened institutional control over crisis reactions. We are in a much better position today to provide some degree of global financial security in the event of such a dramatic event.

I know, many of you may think I am off the deep end by discussing such things. Sorry, I enjoy considering this line of thought. I don’t think that First Contact with humans has occurred and I doubt it will occur for many, many more years. However, I do think First Contact with an extraterrestrial civilization will happen eventually and a discussion now could help set the table for a reasonable and positive human response in the future. Wouldn’t that be nice?

Extraterrestrial Contact: Dramatic and Direct

It’s a classic Hollywood plot line: aliens arrive on Earth in a spacecraft to make an introduction. It’s a cliché and as such I think we dismiss the benefits of such an introduction. I think there is great value in a Direct First Contact event and a dramatic one at that.

This blog stakes out some relatively open territory in the conversation regarding human First Contact with an extraterrestrial civilization. I don’t believe we have made First Contact yet. I don’t believe there is evidence of UFOs being anything but natural phenomenon and misunderstood man-made occurrences. I don’t think that a Direct First Contact event, with aliens arriving on Earth, is very likely. However, I do like to speculate about what might realistically happen if Direct First Contact ever does occur and discuss the process we might need to employ to make First Contact a positive experience, or at least as positive as possible.

My suggested scenario is this: pilot a spacecraft into Earth atmosphere and have it appear above a mid-sized American city. This method of First Contact would set into motion forces that would be hard for anyone to stop. Why an American city? The answer is the news media. The American television news media has the technology and interconnectedness to start a news coverage wave that would spread internationally in a very short time. Thus, enterprising aliens could make an introduction to the world, bypassing governments, scientific agencies and others who might seek to control such an introduction. There is immediate transparency and a method for disseminating an unfiltered message to all humans at once.  The visual event of a spacecraft in Earth atmosphere is important because it allows the news media to control the story, not relying on scientific and possibly governmental involvement, as a transmission from space might. It also has an advantage in that it is something we have seen dozens of times in the movies. Now, many of those movies don’t feature a very positive portrayal of alien intentions, so those hopefully good intentions would have to be relayed immediately and it would be important to show no threat in the dramatic event itself.

Why should space aliens give a damn? If the aliens have good intentions they would probably be concerned about human reaction. There is already plenty of paranoia and distrust to go around on this planet in our daily lives. The appearance of extraterrestrials would amp that up considerably, potentially to dangerous levels. An introduction to humans and not through the institutions of humanity would create an openness that could help the entire process. Why should extraterrestrials care about openness? Imagine the distrust and concern if an extraterrestrial civilization was to make contact with one particular nation? Global politics is a delicate balance of opportunity, risk, security and self-interest. Extraterrestrial First Contact with one nation would set off a firestorm of global political debate and could potentially harm extraterrestrial relations for many years to come. So, why not just engage the United Nations directly? Give me the practical way in which you would have the extraterrestrials approach the massive bureaucracy that is the United Nations? An initial introduction to all humans via the news media could quickly lead to a more formal introduction through the United Nations. From there a process for formal extraterrestrial relations could be established.

In short, a direct and dramatic First Contact event would allow the extraterrestrials to control the message, while providing humans the ability to control the process. Control would be an important concern in the wake of First Contact. Humans will need to feel secure in a very dynamic set of circumstances, with a high degree of uncertainty. A Direct First Contact event does nothing more than say hello, and perhaps suggest a more formal introduction to the United Nations General Assembly. This would provide a strong argument for having the United Nations lead the diplomacy effort, which might not be the case if First Contact was made with an individual nation.

There are plenty of reasons for why such a scenario might not work. Without some sort of stealth technology an extraterrestrial craft would be quickly picked up by various near Earth orbit surveillance systems, let along U.S. military radar. The aliens could be concerned about their safety. They might not have a big, dramatic looking spacecraft. They might not be able to fly a spacecraft in Earth atmosphere. They might feel that entering Earth atmosphere without an invitation would be threatening. All are understandable worries. Hopefully, extraterrestrials advanced enough in technology to visit our solar system would be able to ensure their own safety and fly a craft in Earth atmosphere. As far as the invitation goes, quite frankly I think this is the scenario that humans have come to expect in Direct First Contact.

So, there it is. I think there is value in silly speculation of this sort. The speculation allows us to explore many scenarios about how Direct First Contact might actually be accomplished. It seems to me the scenarios that matter the most are the ones that might actually work and those that will have the best possibility for a relatively positive outcome.