Extraterrestrial Contact: Do We Believe Them?

Part of the problem with speculation about extraterrestrial contact is that we often tend to gloss over the details, which is understandable, considering that the details could turn out in a million different ways. Speculation is always suspect if it has no basis in fact. There is no evidence regarding extraterrestrials, so we have no fact for foundation.

So, why am I wasting my time?

I believe that there is one thing we can discuss that has relevance: the process of extraterrestrial contact. Now granted, to even begin this discussion we will have to make a few assumptions, to narrow the playing field so to speak. Let’s confine our thinking to high-information First Contact, that is, First Contact that involves humans receiving a great deal of information from an extraterrestrial source. It could be a signal sent to us from a far-off planet. It could be information provided to us in a Direct First Contact scenario closer to home. There is one part of the process that I think would be essential in any response to high-information First Contact. We would need to employ critical thinking at every step.

Here’s a scenario to show what I mean. Humans receive a transmission from another world. In the transmission the sender/senders describe their world, their culture, their science and how they perceive the universe. Well, that would be one hell of a long transmission. But let’s say those are the highlights. What do we do with that information? Unfortunately, I think it depends on who receives the information here on Earth and how it is disseminated. If the transmission is easily translated or perhaps written in a human language (both unlikely, granted) the entire transmission could just be released publicly. Then everyone could be involved in the discovery process. Very exciting. But there is one clear danger: not everyone on the planet employs critical thinking. Unfortunately, it’s much easier to believe what we are told. And if the source is an extraterrestrial, then who are we to question what they say? Scientists and other academics would likely be skeptical. They would probably ask a series of questions. Who is this information coming from? Is it from one source, from one particular culture of this extraterrestrial civilization? Is this information the product of a much larger process involving many facets of the extraterrestrial civilization? Are there other extraterrestrial civilizations that might have a differing view of things? What is the agenda of the authors? What are they hoping to accomplish by releasing the information to us? Could there be a hidden agenda that we are not aware of?  Human scientists would probably add another set of questions: what empirical evidence do you have to show that the universe operates in the way you describe?

These questions would get quite complicated. Depending on the method of transmission a reply could take decades, if not longer. In the meantime, how does the public react? If provided the information wholesale, there could be dangers in misinterpretation. People could seize on particular parts of the transmission to support a political or religious view that they have. There would, needless to say, be tremendous debate and discussion. All of that could be beneficial, but only if we have some organized process to help lead the discussion. Such a scenario would be the first time that humans had encountered a great deal of information at one time. The entire planet would need to employ critical thinking in a sense, and of course with critical thinking being a hard process, many would choose not to do so or quickly jump to conclusions based on their way of thinking about the universe. We’ve discussed that the lack of information often causes humans to fill in the gaps with their own particular perspective. I think that massive amounts of extraterrestrial information could have the same effect.

So, the other option would be for scientists to keep the transmission from the public at first, and then have an organized process of scientific discussion. The subsequent information could then be released, bit by bit, with thoughtful and educated analysis. There would certainly be a fist-fight over who would get to be employed in such a remarkable and important role. It would have to be an international group with solid academic credentials and an emphasis on impartiality. Someone would need to make the decision over who would be included in that group. But embargoing the information to the public could cause another reaction: distrust. Fringe groups, and even those in the mainstream, could find such an embargo threatening. Such concerns could lead to speculation about conspiracies. Some would ask: who is controlling such important information and for what purposes? What is being kept from us?

I think the only solution in a high-information First Contact situation is complete transparency and openness, combined with an active and high-profile process of critical thinking lead by key academics. This process would need to be broadcast to the world, so that the resulting conversation would become as equally important as the information from the transmission itself. Will it be an ugly, tumultuous process full of heated debate? Of course. With humans, such global discussions are always interesting. It will be a necessary process though, and we might find that after many years of discussion, what we think of the alien transmission has changed to some extent. The more questions we ask, the more questions will be raised. Hopefully, at some point we could ask those questions of our new extraterrestrial pen pals and get a thoughtful response. In the end, the process we use to disseminate and discuss the information would be almost as important as the information itself. The great thing about process is that it is something we can consider now, before we ever receive extraterrestrial information.

First Contact may never happen and there are those who say, why waste your time thinking about it? First Contact of any type would fundamentally change human civilization and in a high-information First Contact situation that change could be quite dramatic. Doesn’t that make it worth discussing now? Let’s just take a tiny fraction of the time we spend discussing celebrity foibles and apply that energy and effort to the consideration of First Contact. If we’re going to waste our time, let’s waste it on something important.

Extraterrestrial Contact: Human Reaction

There’s a big difference between speculation and science. Much of this blog is speculation, the fiction side of science fiction. The science of SETI, the search for extraterrestrial intelligence, is founded in physics. However, there is another type of science that is also important in SETI consideration, the social science of human perception and behavior. Psychologist Douglas Vakoch leads this mission in his role as social scientist at the SETI Institute in Mountain View, California. Social scientists considering issues of First Contact are a small group. While some like to argue that all considerations of the impact of First Contact on the human civilization are speculative, there is one realm that can be researched in a scientific method: current human perception. If we know what humans think of extraterrestrial First Contact now, we can better discuss how institutions might need to prepare for First Contact in the future.

Vakoch published an important paper in Acta Astronautica in 2000 with Chinese researcher Y.S. Lee. In a nutshell, the paper explores the idea that human reactions to the prospect of First Contact are complicated, with at times divergent or contradictory responses. The basic question put forth is whether human reaction can be plotted as a continuum or should rather be thought of as a series of interrelated reactions. Also, do humans project their own attributes to extraterrestrial intelligence (ETI) when considering whether First Contact would likely be positive or negative?

The survey study was conducted with two similar and dissimilar groups: college students in Hong Kong, China and Nashville, Tennessee. The obvious flaw can be noticed immediately. College students, by their very position, are likely to be better educated than the majority of humans. The authors acknowledge as much in the discussion. However, the choice of Americans and Chinese is quite important. It shows that different cultures may view First Contact differently. It also chooses two nationalities that would be highly influential in any First Contact response by humans and nations that could conflict in such a situation.

The authors explore attitudes and opinions in four domains with their subjects: dispositional optimism, anthropocentrism, religiosity and alienation. They use statements to assess current beliefs, utilizing a variety of scales for measurement. They presented the students with a series of questions and a hypothetical scenario, involving humans receiving an ETI message from space.

Most interesting in the results was that Americans were more likely to have expectations of ETI benevolence or malevolence as a simple either-or proposition. Chinese students however were shown to have a more complicated perspective, often considering that ETI could be both benevolent and malevolent.

Religious beliefs also had a big impact on perception. Not surprisingly, the students who considered themselves to be more religious were less likely to believe in the existence of extraterrestrial life. Religious Americans in the study were also more likely to view proven ETI as most likely hostile or untrustworthy. The Chinese students who fell into the alienated end of a scale (considering alienation and optimism as the poles) were more likely to believe that there would be religious significance in First Contact, in that humans could probably learn a lot from the religious teachings of ETI. The authors say this shows the Chinese students more likely to look to ETI for a sense of meaning.

The study also shows that those with strong religious beliefs could be more likely to have a negative reaction to First Contact. The discovery of ETI would pose significant challenges for anthropocentric individuals. These are reactions that some of use might expect from such a situation. However, this study takes the idea beyond speculation and provides some meaningful data to consider.

As for the issue of projecting ones personality on the concept of First Contact, the researchers say their results show that in the absence of information individuals will react in ways that more represent who they are and how they think, than the reality of the situation. If an ETI signal is ever discovered, deciphering the signal may be a difficult and time-consuming proposition. There will likely be an information “vacuum” of sorts that could last for some time.

Why should you give a damn about an 11 year-old research study? Human reaction to First Contact would be tremendously important. The public reaction would likely influence the response of world leaders and the institutions they represent. Those responses would decide the future of human-extraterrestrial relations. By studying our current human perceptions we can better prepare those institutions for the reaction to First Contact. And if the unlikely event ever does occur, such research could provide an important road map to help us plot a course for human response and the development of extraterrestrial relations. We have a choice in our response to First Contact. We can make hasty, knee-jerk decisions or we can utilize the findings of dedicated social science researchers to help us make intelligent and informed decisions.

Extraterrestrial Contact: Thinking Like Them

The consideration of extraterrestrial contact is pure speculation. There is no evidence that extraterrestrial life exists in any form. I believe this will change quite soon thanks to dedicated researchers and exciting new space missions. Perhaps someday we will even discover extraterrestrial intelligence. Still, there is always the possibility that there is an extraterrestrial civilization out there and they are going to beat us to the punch, saying hello before we can find them ourselves. It’s an outlier, I know, and yet I believe it deserves a bit of thought.

Part of that thought involves viewing things from their perspective. How can we think like them if we have no idea who we might be talking about? The alien perspective would be entirely driven by who they are: their biology, senses, intelligence, technology and civilization. We have no idea what those details might entail. There is one factor that we can speculate about: not being us. One thing that we could probably assume from extraterrestrial contact is that they will not be us. This seems a bit obvious, but there is something that can be gained from this line of thinking. How would someone view humans from the perspective of the visitor? If we can put aside our cultural and geographical bias we can try to take on an extraterrestrial perspective.

The first things they would probably study would be the physical make-up of our planet, the biological life forms on the planet, human biology and probably human psychology. Our civilization might be next. I think the first thing they might notice are the ways in which we are joined globally and ways in which we remain apart. Our system of nations would be one of the first things an outsider might notice when researching human civilization. Our cultural and religious differences would also be quite obvious as having a big impact on our civilization. Just these three categories drive much of human interaction with both positive and negative results. Technology would certainly be top of mind for a visitor. They would have to be at a higher level in technology than us to research our planet in the first place. They would most likely have great interest in our scientific systems and technological achievements. These elements alone could keep alien researchers busy for years.

Needless to say that alien considerations of all of these topics would be based on their perspective, however I believe that by taking a wider perspective, we could start to develop a plan of action to better respond to high-information First Contact, if it ever occurs. This is only an issue for us in the event that they decide to say hello. Let me point out that this type of high-information, high-interaction First Contact is the least likely form of contact. It is however the particular sliver of the conversation that this blog tends to examine.

An alien civilization with advanced technology could probably study us for decades without us ever knowing. They would always be one step ahead of us in terms of making sure our technology could not detect the probe or whatever means they used to conduct their study. At this point almost everything an extraterrestrial civilization would need is available on the Internet. A secret connection to the Internet, with a hidden form of transmission would probably not be tough for an alien scientist to set up and monitor.

So, what can we gain from thinking like an alien? It can help us answer some of the basic questions of First Contact. What do they expect from us? What would they perceive as our strengths and weaknesses? What concerns would they have in how we might react?

On the other side, there are questions we can consider. How can we organize to take advantage of First Contact? What are some of our weaknesses and our strengths in a First Contact situation? What would we need to do to respond to high-information, high-interaction First Contact? How could we protect our civilization and cultures in the wake of First Contact?

Some researchers, among them Albert Harrison, Allen Tough, Douglas Vakoch and Michael Michaud, have attempted to answer some of these questions. By taking on an extraterrestrial perspective, we aren’t really thinking like an extraterrestrial, we are merely viewing our world from an outsiders view. We have many advantages in this study. We know human society better than anyone else. We can ask questions about the human reaction and come up with ideas, based purely on what we already know about ourselves. There’s advantage in doing such. If high-information First Contact ever does occur it will be our only roadmap moving forward. Truly it is just a trace of a path through a dense and complicated jungle. But it’s better than nothing.

Extraterrestrial Contact: Their Rules

We like to think of extraterrestrial First Contact, at least in the most positive form, as a knowledge grab of sorts. We expect that upon meeting members of an alien civilization they will simply open up the floodgates and tell us everything they know. This doesn’t seem very likely.

First Contact will probably not occur in such a straight forward manner anyway. The discovery of a signal would lead to years of research, a return message of our own and perhaps decades later a reply of some sort. But if we are lucky enough to experience high-information First Contact, in some timely manner, it would likely be with a civilization far in advance of our own in terms of technology. That means we would have to play by their rules.

Let’s take the alien perspective for a moment. Why would they want to give us the sum of their many years of collected knowledge? We haven’t earned it. Secondly, it’s hard to say what we would do with it in the first place. Even if the extraterrestrial civilization in question was just hundreds of years in advance of us, it seems unlikely we could even begin to comprehend their understanding of science and technology. After all, science as we know it is a system of building blocks with each discovery leading to many more years of dedicated research and in laborious, painstaking turn eventually leading to new discoveries. Alien knowledge would likely be built in the same fashion and in a set of circumstances probably much different than ours. What could we make of the end result? If one could go back just 90 years and drop the latest version of the iPhone in the lap of Thomas Edison what would we expect him to do with it? Sure, he might find some inspiration to create a new technology based on something he learned from the iPhone, but without a cell network and the internet it wouldn’t be very exciting. Perhaps Edison would only manage to create a primitive version of Angry Birds? Not very useful. In reality, the technology in the iPhone is so advanced that Edison might not get much out of it at all.

It seems to me that beneficent aliens would have several concerns (the ones harboring us ill will would be unlikely to share much at all, and if they did it would be trouble). The first concern is understanding. I have said before that an extraterrestrial civilization would have to educate us, so that we could begin to understand basic knowledge from their perspective. That could take many years. Then, there would be the dangers associated with outside knowledge so quickly gained. We could develop technology that we don’t fully understand and end up harming ourselves and our environment. We could completely wash out the foundation of our systems of scientific research, becoming unable to move forward in a substantial way. We could become completely dependent on alien knowledge. We could lose our independence, our resourcefulness, our drive and eventually our culture. We would be like fat natives sitting on a beach while the colonials spoon feed us. We would come to realize, some years down the road, that we had lost everything we cared about. Sounds pretty negative, right? Well, it’s something to consider, not matter how outlandish it may seem. 

Ultimately though, in a one-sided high-information First Contact event we will be playing by their rules. They will determine what they want to let us know and how they will communicate that knowledge. However, that doesn’t necessarily mean that we should go along with their wishes. It’s our planet and out culture. We need to be protective of who we are and what we are. We need to determine our future. That means that there should be a careful balance between alien desires and human actions. One would hope beneficent aliens would have considered all of this and be a bit stand-offish. They may only give us a few simple guiding ideas and let us explore the resulting insights. They may not want to tell us anything at all about technology and science. They may simply explain who they are and where they came from and leave the rest for us to determine. No matter what, the process won’t be easy. I don’t think anyone on this planet has fully grasped the enormity of what it would mean to meet an extraterrestrial intelligence far in advance of us in technology. There would be a thousand different considerations and pitfalls at every step. We would have to tread lightly going into the new era After First Contact, and we would need to hope that our new extraterrestrial acquaintances had thought it out thoroughly, before ever saying hello.

Kudos to NASA Kepler Researchers!

An exciting announcement today from the Kepler Mission:

"NASA's Kepler mission has confirmed its first planet in the "habitable zone," the region where liquid water could exist on a planet’s surface. Kepler also has discovered more than 1,000 new planet candidates, nearly doubling its previously known count. Ten of these candidates are near-Earth-size and orbit in the habitable zone of their host star. Candidates require follow-up observations to verify they are actual planets."

http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/kepler/news/kepscicon-briefing.html

Extraterrestrial Contact: Negative Scenarios

My cat is quite jumpy. He was born feral and even though he lives in the house, even I can cause him to jump from time to time. It’s for good reason. There are plenty of things out there that would like to eat a cat. Caution is what keeps him alive. Caution is also what keeps humans alive. I suppose you could call it reasonable fear. So, it’s hard to fault anyone for having concerns about extraterrestrial First Contact. If it ever does occur, alien visitors could just as easily harbor ill will towards us as they could practice beneficence. As I have mentioned before, I think it is even more likely that aliens would have a complicated mix of motives, many of which could be hard for us to understand. Even good intentions on their part could be quite harmful to the human civilization. So, caution on the part of humans would be important for keeping our human civilization alive and healthy. A group of researchers published some scenarios for First Contact recently in Acta Astronautica. They point out that developing scenarios is important in preparing a risk analysis for First Contact. They also delve into the more complex side of scenarios, points that most writers ignore. So, in the spirit of the article I suggest these possibilities, on the negative side:

-Outright aggression: This is the Hollywood classic attack on planet Earth. It seems unlikely we would get any advance notice.

-Extreme hidden deception: A favorite of conspiracy folks, this scenario involves a secret alien invasion of the covert type that subverts our government and other institutions.

-Extreme outright deception: In this event the aliens would come out and say hello, but in reality have a destructive hidden agenda. Think of the television series “V.”

-Hidden manipulation: A bit different from hidden deception. This would involve the aliens making secret treaties with one nation or group of nations, to the detriment of others.

-Outright manipulation: A public welcome aimed at one particular nation or group of nations. It would be designed to show open allegiance to one particular style of government, religion or culture. It could be used to support a wider agenda.

-Subtle manipulation: A public welcome for the entire world and then a slow and subtle move towards supporting particular governments, religions or cultures on Earth. This might be the most dangerous, because it would be hard to recognize at first.

-Agenda setting: In this scenario, the aliens want us to behave in a certain way. It could be benign, as in encouraging us to take better care of our environment, or intrusive, perhaps supporting a religious or philosophical view they have.

-Galactic political manipulation: If there are many extraterrestrial civilizations out there, and if they have regular contact with each other, there could very well be political conflict between those civilizations. First Contact with Earth could be a first step in trying to influence humans in a much larger political arena; one that we never knew existed. This would be extremely dangerous for us in the long-term. We could be forced to get all of our information about galactic politics from the one set of visitors, with no access to objective information. This scenario could be much worse if active warfare is waged as part of that galactic political conflict. We could get drawn into a military conflict that we do not understand and without the technology to protect ourselves.

-They don’t give a damn about us: This might seem like a neutral scenario, but it could have negative consequences. Perhaps we discover an extraterrestrial civilization, even one passing nearby, and yet they want nothing to do with us (there is a classic science fiction story with this exact premise: Arthur C. Clarke’s “Rendezvous with Rama”). We are left with the information that advanced extraterrestrial civilizations are out there, with very little knowledge about their intentions or numbers or level of technology. That would be scary. How would we react? Would we go into a frenzy of planetary defense building? See the own worst enemy entry coming up for the rest of the story.

-Good intentions, bad results: The aliens could come with perfectly noble intentions, such as providing us with the technology to solve our energy problems and helping us protect our environment. However, that information could be damaging to our systems of science, research and discovery. We could become dependent on alien knowledge and flaccid in the areas of research. Such a process could undermine human civilization in ways that we cannot imagine.

-Our own worst enemy: I’m going to call this the most likely negative scenario. In this event, the aliens don’t do anything negative and yet we have dangerous conflict between nations on Earth, as we attempt to deal with the new reality and as we fight for advantage. Conflict of some sort between nations is inevitable After First Contact. The true question is if we will allow that conflict to grow and be destructive, or whether we will use the conflict as a thoughtful debate that helps us to make better decisions and move forward.

These scenarios are not pretty and in some circumstances they could cause an early demise for humanity.  So, what do we do? I propose that we act exactly like my cat. He knows that there are plenty of things that would like to eat him. He faces threats each and every day. Yet, every morning that cat goes running outside with his tail up and heads straight into the woods to face his fears. He’ll probably be rather jumpy out there and hopefully cautious in where he goes and what he does. I think that humans will need to do the same. The reality of extraterrestrial life should not cause us to isolate ourselves, smother our quest for knowledge or freak out with a massive arms buildup. If First Contact with an extraterrestrial civilization ever occurs, we must face it with equal parts of excitement and caution. We should proceed with optimism and skepticism. We must think critically and act boldly. We must make the changes needed to strengthen the human civilization and prepare ourselves for a challenging future- a future full of risk and opportunity.