First Contact Motivation

No matter what the form of First Contact, the motivation for communication on the part of the extraterrestrials would be the foundation of the new relationship with humans. I argue that if we simply discover an engineered signal that is not First Contact. Contact by definition involves communication. Discovering a signal intended as a form of communication would fall into the First Contact scenario. That too, though, would entail a primary motivation on the part of the sender.

The number of possible motivations for extraterrestrials contacting humans seems endless, or at least bound only by our imagination. We have no actual knowledge of anything involving extraterrestrial intelligence, so any talk of motivation is merely speculation. That speculation has been the subject of a robust body of work in science fiction for decades.

Some of the possibilities include:

-They’re responding to our radio signals or messages placed on our spacecraft

-They just wanted to say hello

-They’re scientifically curious

-They want to convert us to their form of religion

-They want to warn us about something

-They want to reveal something

-They want to conquer us

-They want to be our friends

-They didn’t mean to make contact at all, it was a mistake

The science fiction writers have been much more creative than this meager list shows. My point is simply that the motivation of extraterrestrials should be of top concern to us in the event of First Contact. And that brings up another issue: will they tell us their true motivation for First Contact? It’s easy to assume that aliens would be honest. But honesty is a human trait and dishonesty perhaps just as common. It will be important for us to not only ask why they have made contact, but we will have to try and determine the underlying motivations that they might not be willing to share. This may sound a bit paranoid, but we would be dealing with creatures that we don’t understand at all. Caution and critical thinking would seem essential in such a situation.

Of course, motivation is a two-way street. The relationship will also be formed by our motivations for First Contact. It may seem like a cut and dried case of curiosity on our end. But is that the only motivation? First Contact would probably bring to light a bunch of things we would hope to gain in a new relationship: knowledge, new technology, a solution to global warming, revelations about the true nature of the physical world and new energy sources.

Eight Things We Could Expect from Direct First Contact

Here are eight things we could expect from Direct First Contact with an extraterrestrial civilization. That is, First Contact that involves extraterrestrial visitors coming to earth.

1. If an extraterrestrial is curious enough to contact humans it would probably share some of our intellectual abilities and value orientations. This idea comes from psychologist John Baird in his book "The Inner Limits of Outer Space". 

2. If they reach us first they are likely to be scientifically and technologically superior to us. This again is from the Baird book, but a common idea shared by many. It is really common sense. We don’t have the ability to travel between stars. If they come here they do have that ability. Ergo they are more technologically advanced.

3. If they wish to make contact they would likely do research first. They would probably examine our environment, language, culture and psychological nature. Once again, this is a proposition derived from common sense. If they have the ability to travel between stars they have problem solving abilities. Research is a basic step in problem solving.

4. They would most likely have a motivation for First Contact and a plan for carrying it out. If you understand problem solving you probably won’t take serious action without a plan.

5. They would be bringing their party to our house. First Contact, at least in the initial stages, would be their objectives, their process and their rules.

6. If they have studied us thoroughly, they would realize that we would not react well to such an overtly controlling process.

7. They would probably consider ways to keep us peaceful, calm and open to communication.

8. In short: they would have a public relations plan.

What does all of this mean for us? We must be cautious at every step. We must work to determine their true motivation and what it means for us. We cannot assume their motivations will keep our best interests in mind. We must be as open as possible and not let paranoia and fear prevent us from acting effectively. We must be united in our approach and response. We must state clearly that First Contact on our planet must be carried out according to our rules. We must quickly establish guidelines and protocols for protecting our civilization and yet keeping an open dialogue to develop a fruitful relationship. We must hope for the best and prepare for the worst.

The Psychology of First Contact

Contact with extraterrestrials is more than just a scientific or social challenge. There will be psychological challenges for humans. Much would depend on the type of contact. The most profound impact would be in a Direct First Contact event, where humans interact directly with extraterrestrials. There’s not much written on the psychology of First Contact. One of the better books is "The Inner Limits of Outer Space" by John Baird. 

The psychologist posits that social communication with aliens will be modeled, at least from our perspective, on our own social interaction. No surprise there, modeling our behavior on what we have come to expect in human relationships is our only option- we simply don’t have any other frame of reference. For humans, and for the aliens, the relationship will be based on how each party views the other and perceives relative intelligence, social rank and knowledge.

Much of Baird’s book explores SETI based communication with extraterrestrials. He was part of a NASA study group on the issue in the 1970’s. However, his work does have application to Direct First Contact as well.

It has been expected that in a Direct First Contact scenario the visiting aliens would be more technologically advanced, which makes sense considering that we do not have the technology to visit them and by the very nature of the scenario they do have the technology to visit us. This would immediately place the relationship in a type of imbalance.

Baird suggests that while many scientists have used technology to set up possible comparison scales to extraterrestrials, a much better scale would be to determine how they think and how similar that thinking is to the human mentality. It is a bold suggestion and one that makes sense. Sure, technology will be a huge part of the discussion, but that very discussion rests on a foundation of communication and interaction. If the aliens think very differently from us the relationship will be harder to form. If they think more like us it will be easier. Science is only one way to compare civilizations. We would have a much stronger bond if they had some appreciation of the role of art and music in our society. If they have similar pursuits there will be a connection, perhaps one even stronger than science, due to the more personal nature of art and music and the deep connection of those activities to our culture.

There is a tendency for humans to view everything with an anthropocentric bias. Many prominent researchers have been arguing that our narrow definition of what could form biological life could interfere with our search for extraterrestrial intelligence. Baird was one of the first to broach the subject in the 1980s. It applies to Direct First Contact as well, as our focus on an anthropocentric view of communication could be extremely limiting in how we interact with alien intelligence.

Baird suggests that one way of helping us understand an extraterrestrial intelligence is by examining how humans perceive intelligence. Researchers say that humans have many different types of intelligence and no one measure is enough to judge the sum. Baird uses an interesting comparison in this argument, taking a look at how adults view the intelligence of a child. The very notion of growing up and gaining in knowledge is a given, but does it really make one more intelligent? You can argue that humans become more set in their ways as adults, less playful and less excited by new ideas. We can see those child-like attributes in some of the most successful older adults: a constant need for play with ideas.

Probably the biggest take-away from Baird’s book is the idea that First Contact would be an extremely complicated relationship from many perspectives. We would have to be prepared to take several steps back from our usual way of thinking and take in perspectives we have not imagined. The danger is that some humans will not want to spend the time or energy to consider such things. That could lead to knee-jerk reactions based on anthropocentric fears and judgments. If it’s simply a problem for the man or woman on the street that’s one thing, but what is the likelihood that our political leaders would be able to rise above this base level thinking?

Conspiracy Theory After First Contact

Conspiracy has been popular in American culture for years and the rise of the Internet has brought it to a fever pitch in certain circles. Nothing breeds mistrust like bad information. Bill Keller of the New York Times has an interesting piece in the New York Times Magazine about conspiracy, tracing the American obsession from President Kennedy’s assassination to the President Obama birth certificate frenzy. Keller points out that much of it seems to stem from a mistrust of authority, whether that authority is a government commission or the New York Times. The Internet provides fertile ground for self-made authorities who buck conventional logic and often reality.

Now I’m about to take the question a bit further than Mr. Keller would have intended. Can you imagine all of the nut bag crazy conspiracy theories that would circulate After First Contact with an extraterrestrial civilization? Keller points to a book by Mike Fenster called “Conspiracy Theories: Secrecy and Power in American Culture.” Fenster says that conspiracy is often a response to unusual events. I can’t imagine an event stranger than First Contact. In addition to that potent catalyst, humans will undoubtedly have to deal with the incredible load of conspiracy baggage that already exists concerning extraterrestrials: abduction, government collusion, secret societies and alien infiltration. If folks are already loony about extraterrestrials, and there is absolutely no credible evidence that extraterrestrials exist, what the heck happens if we have actual evidence that they do exist?

I would imagine that after a brief period of shock and awe, which will shut down most of the crazy conversation, the conspiracy bandwagon will grow new stories and crazier plots. The thing that will make it tough to refute the theories: the reality is already bizarre enough. If aliens actually do exist, is it that much of a leap to think they kidnapped and brain-mapped your cousin Clarence? And who’s to say they’re not abducting people and dissecting cows? The aliens? Like we’re going to believe them. How about a government commission? Oh, wait, let’s not go there. Perhaps the New York Times could investigate?

First Contact would fuel wilder and more robust conspiracy theories. The only possible hope is transparency. And it would have to be a brutal, bare-all type of transparency that keeps every decision and each action clearly in the public eye. That won’t be easy. It’s one of the reasons I suggest that an explosive and dramatic Direct First Contact event would be the best way for an extraterrestrial civilization to say hello in person. It bypasses government secrecy and goes straight to the people via the live media. This is an important distinction, not the behind the scenes, we don’t know what you’re leaving out or putting in media, but the live media. Events and actions need to occur in full public view and live television offers that ability in a way that no other medium can. Even with that approach there will be years and years of debunking and myth busting necessary and unfortunately the alien visitors would have to be front and center for that questioning. Sure, it’s rather annoying to say hello to a new planet and then be brought before some organization that will ask you if you have been anal probing the very beings you have just met. Annoying and necessary.

And I have one prediction that I know will stand up in any First Contact situation. No matter how transparent and no matter how many questions are answered there will always be new conspiracy theories and paranoia will fester for many, many years. It’s just the way some of us humans think and unfortunately my alien friends if you embark on a relationship with us humans you get all of us.

Extraterrestrials, Hawks and Doves

If extraterrestrial intelligence is ever discovered in the universe, we may very well think back on these days as a time of relative ease of mind. The very notion that extraterrestrial civilizations exist could bring about a sudden fear. What we don’t know at all doesn’t seem to bother us, what we know only slightly could scare us half to death. The primary driver is of course that lack of knowledge. How many civilizations are out there? Can they travel? Do they plan to visit? Are they friendly? Even the slightest proof that extraterrestrial intelligence exists would inspire all of these questions and many more.

Scientists are quick to point out that given our current understanding of the physical world interstellar travel is quite impractical- both expensive and time consuming. Thus any relationship with extraterrestrials would likely be via communication. The vast distance between stars would provide a ready-made insulation of sorts, ensuring our safety. Given that our understanding of the physical world has changed rapidly over the last couple of hundred years though, it also seems likely that our science will progress and we will learn new things about the laws that govern actions in the universe.

First Contact would bring the issue of safety to the forefront of discussion and it seems likely that humans will fall into the same divisions that we currently do. The hawks and the doves will have a grand debate.

Planetary defense has been considered primarily for a much more likely threat: asteroids and other objects coming near the Earth. The American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics has held yearly conferences about the issue of near Earth objects (NEO), including one conference just a few weeks ago in Romania.

NASA and several other agencies participate in these conferences and they are perhaps the best gauge of current thinking in regards to planetary defense. Still, deflecting a near Earth object would be much different than trying to defend against intelligent beings. The NEO, probably being an errant asteroid, can’t plan countermeasures or use stealth technology. 

Planetary defense against alien invaders has been discussed in the world of science fiction and raised as a realistic concern by only a handful of authors. Travis Taylor, Bob Boan, Charles Anding and Conley Powell have written one of the few ETI oriented planetary defense books, called “An Introduction to Planetary Defense: A Study of Modern Warfare Applied to Extra-Terrestrial Invasion.” These engineers have been involved in aerospace research for many years and they raise several thoughtful ideas in the book about the issue of defense against extraterrestrials. The problem is that Hollywood has also weighed-in, and those special effects driven spectaculars do little to examine the real issues. This month the National Geographic Channel takes a closer look with a show called “When Aliens Attack.”

Most of the show is based on the usual television silliness, framed around an animated portrayal of an alien attack. We ponder how humans could use balloons to drop onto alien ships to stage an attack. We get animated examples of how F-18s would fare against alien fighter ships. We make assumption, after assumption; go through scenario after scenario and reveal, well…basically nothing. It isn’t that much different from what you’ve already seen in the many movies on the subject.

There is a glimmer of hope for substance in the TV show, as the issue of the U.N. protocol for extraterrestrial contact is raised. Researcher and author Michael Michaud pops up with thoughtful, albeit brief, commentary and then he’s gone and it’s back to the dramatics. Michaud is also allowed to discuss the problem of communication with aliens; however it’s also a short break from the silliness. The show does talk about the need for a global army in the case of an attack and some other interesting issues, but they are merely raised and then gone as the cheesy animated attack continues.

Okay, fine. I understand it’s just a television show. The producers are attempting to amuse middle aged men drinking a beer after mowing the lawn. But couldn’t they have spent just a few more moments hearing from this rather esteemed line-up of interview subjects? I’m sure Mr. Michaud, Seth Shostak and Travis Taylor had much more interesting things to say. Those comments are probably lost on the proverbial cutting room floor.

All of these issues would come to the forefront in the wake of First Contact. The hawks will demand a robust defense with an emphasis on new technology. The doves will say that it’s pointless to prepare and we would be better off sending positive messages to signal that we are not aggressive. Both groups will have valid points. Preparation could be tremendously important or it could be of no use at all. Aggressive actions could send the wrong message, or they could let an adversary know we won’t go down without a fight.

The problem with all of it? The unknown. Even if we intercept a signal and even if we start a conversation (likely to be decades long conversation as the messages travel back and forth) we would have many more questions than answers. We need a debate here on Earth because the answers are not clear cut. With so many variables and so many unknowns every view should be taken seriously, at least at first. Then the United Nations will need to lead the way and put together a plan of action. That will be perhaps the biggest hurdle of all. The hawks versus doves debate will bring out international squabbles and Earth-bound security concerns. Each nation will be looking not only to space for a possible confrontation, but also to their neighbors here on Earth. Will China be interested in sharing its latest military technology with the United States and vice-versa?

Without strong United Nations leadership, and a recognized body to take up the issue, it would be a debate beyond anything that we have experienced on Earth thus far. There is at least one thing we can do now- prepare ourselves for how we might handle the diplomatic and international issues of First Contact. It’s something that could reside entirely on paper and doesn’t require a big expenditure of money. Imagine how much further along we would be if we did some planning before panic strikes.

Jill Tarter of the SETI Institute, Michael Michaud and others tried to get the United Nations to take action. Michaud details the actions in his excellent book “Contact with Alien Civilizations”. They presented an International Academy of Astronautics (IAA) position paper to the U.N. Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (COPUOS) in 1996 in regards to First Contact protocol. They followed up with a briefing on the documents in 2000. Both of these were accepted by the UN and then ignored.

The issue of First Contact has so many implications that it deserves a serious treatment. The details of a defined First Contact diplomatic and response protocol might not be of much interest to a guy watching TV and drinking a beer on a Saturday afternoon. However, such a robust protocol could be a good starting point if we ever do make First Contact.

My Prediction for the End of the World

I am sad to report that my realization that the end of the world is occurring came to me while watching the movie “Police Academy”. The 1984 film is just as bad as I had remembered. It also has all the signs pointing to the end of humanity as we know it. “Police Academy” is 27 years old. I found myself watching the movie for an indication of what has changed in 27 years and for the most part the visual answer would be very little. Aside from the occasional hairstyle or car design, life in 1984 looks remarkably similar to life in 2011. Of course much has changed in 27 years, but most of that revolution is occurring behind the scenes and out of sight. So, my argument is that the world, as we have known it, is ending right before our eyes.

Let’s go to the high tech rumor mill for the first piece of my argument. We seem to understand that the Smartphone is changing us. It is our portal to the Internet. Currently it is a powerful tool for humans to use. At what point does the Smartphone tool actually become part of us? The tiny Smartphone display on my Blackberry annoys me. It is top of the line (for Blackberry anyway) and yet I have to squint when trying to view the weather radar or catch the finer point of a photograph. Apple is working to fix that with better heads-up displays and, if you believe the quite busy Apple rumor community, perhaps the next step is beyond a display to sit on your head like glasses, but rather a display inside of your head.  The Smartphone becomes easier to use because it becomes part of our body.

The Smartphone tool is simply our connection to what really matters: the Internet. The Internet is more than a repository of information- it has become a living world of social interaction and information. Every two days we create as much information as humanity created from the beginning of human origins up until the year 2003. That’s five exabytes of data every two days. That’s a stat rattled off at the Techonomy Conference last year. Former Google CEO Eric Schmidt had a great quote during that conference, as relayed in Tech Crunch: “I spend most of my time assuming the world is not ready for the technology revolution that will be happening to them soon.”

Most of the data we create is not that useful: the fact that a friend from college is re-doing his kitchen or that a colleague is enjoying a trip to Bermuda is nice to know and yet not very valuable. However, those tiny bits of information put us in a real-time world with that college friend, the vacationing colleague and dozens, if not hundreds, of other people. You can almost see the information flow starting to breathe when you look at facebook. This isn’t just a set of tools being used by humans- it’s an entirely new way of living. The virtual world is dawning and the world of 1984 might as well be 1900 or 1600 or 1200. In many respects 1984 humans might have more in common with the year 1200 human than year 2050 human.

Two billion people are connected via the Internet and a new study says that $8 trillion worth of e-commerce is conducted each year. The “Internet Matters” report by McKinsey and Company shows that the Internet is merely middle of the pack when it comes to Gross Domestic Product in the 13 countries studied. Yet, as we know, the Internet reaches into every sector of the economy and has drawn the world together. More than 75 percent of businesses use the Internet. The “Internet Matters” report calls for business to optimize their participation in the “global Internet ecosystem.” Ecosystem is a great word for it. Global trading, as aided by technology, is growing daily. Our banking systems are interconnected. Our monetary systems react as one joined system. A tremor in the economy of Greece is felt quickly in the United States.  The interconnected nature of the global economy is expected to keep growing. The question is where will it lead? 

This concept of humans growing closer together due to technology is not a new one. The forest for the trees moment really comes when you see how quickly this interconnectedness is occurring. Take a few steps back from our day-to-day rush and ask yourself: are we changing before our eyes?

In “Police Academy” world of 1984 it was primarily the mass media pulling us together as a planet and most of the technology I have been discussing was still in rudimentary forms. What will happen in the next 27 years? Are we moving rapidly to a new, interconnected, technologically enhanced human? Will that lead to humans in machine form?

There is a reason I’m talking about this in a blog dedicated to the consideration of extraterrestrial intelligence. Perhaps this revolution in human technology is not unique to us at all, but merely a phase that intelligent beings go through in the steady march through evolution? If so, an extraterrestrial might watch such progress and use it as a benchmark to decide when we are worth contacting. Why bother with the silly humans when they are throwing spears and reveling in fire? Why even bother when they are tapping away on typewriters and chatting on huge plastic landline phones? You would want to make contact at a point in human development when the humans might actually be able to understand who and what you are as an alien.

Do I think this all leads to some big moment in the next few months or years where the world will end and we’ll all march off to meet our maker? Of course not. It’s much more dramatic than that. The world as we have known it for thousands of years may be ending even as we speak. It’s probably something we won’t even realize until it’s already happened.

A New Project for SETI

SETI researchers at U.C. Berkeley are not letting funding issues stand in the way of the search for extraterrestrial intelligence. A few weeks ago they announced that budget cuts would shut down research conducted in conjunction with the SETI Institute on the Allen Telescope Array. Just last week the Berkeley scientists spoke up again, this time trumpeting the start of a new project focusing on possible planets discovered in the NASA Kepler Mission.

They’re using the massive Green Bank Telescope in West Virginia to pull data from the starfield that Kepler has explored to find 1,253 possible planets in recent months. In particular, they are looking for signals in the star systems of the planets that have shown the most Earth-like characteristics. It will only be 24 hours worth of data, five minutes per likely candidate, but that will take plenty of time to sort through. We can all be involved through the SETI@home project, which uses our computer downtime to help sift through the data looking for that standout signal that would bear closer attention. Of course, Green Bank is where the SETI effort began as Project Ozma 51 years ago.

This doesn’t mean the funding issues are no longer a problem, just that they have found a new project while the SETI Institute works on raising funds to restart the Allen Telescope Array. You can help in that effort as well. Visit the SETI Institute home page for details on donating to the cause.

Ambiguous First Contact

SETI researchers have pointed out that First Contact is likely to be an ambiguous event in many respects. The reception of an alien signal would take much study to determine the origin, with plenty of debate along the way. Even once confirmed as being engineered, what the signal means could take many years to decipher, if that’s even possible. Yet, there are issues that even an ambiguous signal, once confirmed to be of extraterrestrial intelligence in origin, raises for humans here and now. The problem comes in what we don’t know. The discovery of an engineered signal would only show that there is possibly intelligent life out there in the universe. We would have a specific origin of the signal to study for further evidence of life. But is that location necessarily where the intelligent beings are from and where they are now? Perhaps they were just passing through or have a relay of some sort? Perhaps it’s a leftover remnant of a civilization long passed?

The mere fact that there is extraterrestrial intelligence out there would raise a series of troubling questions: exactly where are they? Do they have the ability to get here? Are they already in the neighborhood? Once again, proximity becomes a major issue.

Even an ambiguous signal raises the need for a unified, United Nations led effort to provide a framework for response. Developing a diplomatic framework, even before we know what we might be dealing with, actually makes sense. Having a framework in place means that you have thought through the possibilities and you can respond much quicker to challenges when the need arises. Developing a working relationship between scientists, politicians and diplomats would be important in such a scenario. Groups like the SETI Institute could provide the knowledge and background to help lead United Nations officials in developing a planet-wide response.

The trouble may be far off or may even be something we never confront. It may not even be trouble at all, simply pleasant space aliens with whom we conduct a decades-long conversation across light years of space. Considerations of our defense and safety are still a cautious and practical reaction in the wake of an ambiguous First Contact. It certainly shouldn’t be a panic driven rush to put nuclear weapons in space. It could simply be a series of what-ifs leading us to consider making some long-term changes to make us safer. Perhaps just monitoring our solar system for evidence of visitors? Or a manned observation system in Earth orbit?

The SETI Institute and the United Nations should begin the basic discussions now. It can be an informal and zero-dollar conversation to start. And perhaps it is already occurring and I’m just out of the loop. I know that United Nations officials, such as Mazlan Othman, the Director of the United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs, have attended scientific conferences that have involved SETI researchers and astrophysicists. I hope they have had an opportunity to sit down over coffee, at the very least, to have a reasonable discussion. It could grow into a volunteer task force that reports to COPUOS (the United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space). Developing a working relationship now would be quite advantageous if First Contact ever does occur. But please, let’s keep it quiet. The media has proven that they can’t handle the excitement when people talk about reasonable approaches to First Contact.

My Open Letter to Extraterrestrials

I recently referenced a website titled “Invitation to ETI.” The primary part of the website is an open letter designed as a direct welcome to an extraterrestrial civilization. After reading it again I couldn’t help but come up with my own version, with no disrespect intended to the “Invitation to ETI” folks.

My Open Letter to Extraterrestrials

Hello and thanks for reading. You’ve probably been surfing the Internet, trying to figure out what makes humanity tick. First of all, let us apologize for the Internet. We’re not sure why it’s 12 percent porn. We’re also not proud of the fact that most discussion of extraterrestrials focuses on alien abductions and a ridiculous incident in New Mexico. What can we say? We’re a highly excitable bunch. Now, if you have been abducting us, please stop. It’s not the best way to start a new relationship.

You have probably noticed that there isn’t much scholarly work about extraterrestrials. The brave academics and researchers who do write about the topic face criticism and the erosion of professional reputation. There is a small band of dedicated scientists who have brought some degree of respectability to the topic. Please give Frank Drake, Jill Tarter, Seth Shostak or Paul Davies a call. They have been leaders in this area and would have much to discuss with you.

Despite recent advances in technology, which brings us humans much closer in communication, we’re still a highly fractured people here on planet Earth. We have what we call the United Nations. We’re still not entirely sure what we should do with it. We’re apparently scared of losing our cultural and national identities. In all candor, we are still comprised of tribes. We're interconnected, but disorganized and often rather testy.

If you decide to contact us directly it would probably be quite a spectacle here on Earth. Overall, I think we would handle it well. Once we manage to deal with the apocalypse fanatics and the fringe religious groups and endure the political posturing and inevitable power grabs- we should be ready for a rational discussion. Our scientists will have to work in conjunction with our politicians, a relationship that currently isn’t going very well. Nevertheless, they will do their best to put up with each other. We have managed not to blow ourselves up yet with nuclear weapons. We’ve done serious damage to our environment, but we’re working on it-slowly, anyway.

I think an introduction from you would have a transformative effect on our civilization. It would be challenging in the initial weeks and months, but I think such a revelation would bring us humans closer together in the long run. We hope that you’re friendly and have altruistic reasons for wanting to communicate with us. Either way, we would rather know the truth, than continue to labor under the assumption that we are alone in the universe.

So, welcome. And once again- sorry about all of the porn. We hope you otherwise enjoy your Googling and we look forward to meeting you.

The Blind Side

The subject of extraterrestrial First Contact has not been treated well in the popular media. Thankfully, there are serious science writers who have taken the time and effort to put together thoughtful pieces on the topic. Tim Folger published just such an article in Scientific American a few months ago. “Contact the Day After” is an overview of the current state of the SETI (Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence) scientific effort and an examination of what might happen after First Contact.

Folger points to the very human reactions of researchers when confronted with a signal that they believe may be of extraterrestrial origin. Seth Shostak with the SETI institute shares as story that he has also talked about in his book. It was an “engineered signal” discovered 13 years ago. Eventually, that signal was determined to be coming from a NASA satellite, but in the meantime, while taking a closer look at the signal, researchers did what humans are prone to do: act human.

“It’s not that people do anything mischievous or malevolent—you’re so caught up in the excitement of the moment, the media are calling you on the phone, people send e-mails to their friends,” Shostak said.

The main point of the Folger article is that SETI based First Contact is likely to occur in a drawn out fashion, with many years needed to study and decipher an alien signal. In the meantime, the public, while initially excited, will have a relatively muted response because of the many unknowns.

“I think the assumption that one day someone is going to announce that we’ve discovered extraterrestrial intelligence, and now the world knows, is a fallacy, because there’s going to be much more ambiguity in the process,” said Douglas Vakoch at the SETI Institute.

Vakoch, and others, realize that First Contact, if it behaves like most other scientific discoveries, will not be an absolute process. There will be debate, many research studies conducted over a great deal of time, and probably a fair amount of controversy along the way. That’s just how human science moves forward. There is rarely the Eureka! moment.

Fair enough. I have said all along that such a discovery is the most likely form of First Contact. However, I still think that the SETI protocols need to be merged with broader protocols, which would describe a diplomatic response, moving in step with the scientific effort. It’s a subject that has yet to even be discussed by the United Nations.

And what if we do experience a Direct First Contact event? What if communication, for whatever reason, is possible and can be conducted relatively quickly? What if we can have a conversation with an extraterrestrial civilization? We haven’t planned for that possibility. You can argue that Hollywood and fiction writers have worked this ground over again and again. And yet it’s a shallow reworking of tired soil that has lent very little to a practical discussion of how we might handle Direct First Contact. It’s the blind side in this discussion. The UFO folks find it boring, because, of course, aliens are currently running Proctor and Gamble. The SETI folks don’t have time to think about it, because they have too much else to do. Science writers touch on the idea from time to time, but leave it behind because of the high wackiness factor. And that leaves us with very little else.

The problem is that Direct First Contact is a much different animal. If we can have an actual conversation with an extraterrestrial civilization, there are many, many considerations to take into account. Threat becomes an immediate issue. The sharing of information is a concern. Diplomatic roles and leadership is a major problem. Politics, economics and even psychology suddenly are some of the most relevant subjects in regards to human response. And yet there very few people actively considering these issues in a rational and thoughtful way.

This little blog isn’t designed to be that forum. It’s simply a “what if” whispered in the dark.

I leave this entry with one of my favorite pieces of writing on this subject. It’s on a website titled “Invitation to ETI.” The open letter is designed as a direct welcome to an extraterrestrial civilization. While you can tell from the tone of the letter that it’s probably much more instructive for humans considering First Contact issues, and most likely written as such, it does set a tone for the conversation that seems well considered.

 

“We will treat you with respect, courtesy, friendship, and caring. We will speak and act truthfully, avoiding lies and deception. We will deal honestly and fairly with you, avoiding any temptation to exploit the situation for personal greed or for any particular nation or organization. Without forsaking our own values and integrity, we will be as empathic, helpful, and flexible as we can in understanding and fostering your goals and plans.”

And of course that’s how we hope they would treat us.

I disagree with those who believe First Contact would be of minimal impact to our society. The effect on the human psyche of First Contact, especially Direct First Contact, would be profound: we are not masters of the known universe any longer. We have neighbors. We cannot control them. There is risk and there is incredible opportunity.

It’s time to move forward.

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Proximity

In a dangerous situation the severity of a threat is often in direct relation to the proximity of the threat. An Earthquake in Japan creates the highest degree of threat for people who live in Japan and less so for those who live in Finland. A shooting incident is of primary concern for people close to the line of fire and less so for those who live in another neighborhood. The same could be said of First Contact. The threat, both real and perceived, would be in direct relation to proximity. If the aliens in question are 50 light years away, there is much less of a threat than if they are hanging out in Paris, France. Technology is important in these considerations as well. Do the aliens have the ability to travel here, and if so, how quickly?

In a sense, there is an insulation of distance when a disaster strikes or there is an external threat. Still, this blog examines the possible impact of Direct First Contact. That entails an extraterrestrial civilization showing up in our solar system and perhaps here on planet Earth. So, what can we predict in the way of human response to a Direct First Contact event?

There is, of course, no real answer to this question. There are too many unknowns and too many variables. However, we can take a look at how humans react to disasters here on Earth. Bagrow, Wang and Barabasi examine communication immediately after disasters to try and uncover a pattern of human reaction to large scale emergencies. In the March issue of the www.plosone.org journal they published a study that looks at “cooperative human actions under externally induced perturbations.” They scanned media reports to pick a bombing, plane crash and earthquake and then used cell phone records to chart communication activities. For a control group they took a look at similar cell phone records for large concerts and sporting events. The results, not surprisingly, show that proximity is the best indicator of the volume of communication following a disaster. In the bombing the spatial decay of the communication volume came to 2.38 kilometers. In the plane crash that increased to nearly 10 kilometers. In the earthquake it was 110 kilometers. Human communication immediately after a localized disaster is most important for those who could be most impacted. Proximity is the prime motivator.

A Direct First Contact event may start in the same fashion. If an alien spacecraft was to land in New Jersey, it seems likely that, at first anyway, the Jersey residents would be the ones most concerned. However, Direct First Contact has an element that is different from anything we have experienced thus far in human history. Direct First Contact would contain an element of threat for the entire planet at once. Just the revelation that we are not alone in the universe and that we really don’t know much about the new visitors creates a threat. What are their motivations? Can we trust them?

So, what of the human reaction? One would expect that if Bagrow, Wang and Barabasi were to conduct a similar study after a dramatic Direct First Contact event they would find cell phone communication patterns consistent with a large scale emergency- at first. The locations nearest the alien landing would experience the greatest amount of cell phone activity. I suspect though, that they would soon find a reverse effect. As the news would spread across the globe, the level of concern in all corners of the planet would grow greatly, with corresponding cell phone traffic increasing in an expanding pattern outward from the point of contact itself. It would be a pattern unlike anything we have seen. And of course communication is just the start of human reaction. What would happen next?

Recent surveys have found that humans polled about First Contact issues seem relatively nonplussed about the possibility. That term applies well in this case, because while it means unperturbed in the popular lexicon, it also means surprised and confused to such a degree that the person does not know how to react. I would suspect that this may be the immediate response to a Direct First Contact event. A period of stunned silence seems likely, as people simply try to comprehend the news and watch to see what happens next. Extreme reactions of civil unrest or hysterical response could come later, after people have had time to process the information and decide how it fits into their world view. Some may say it’s the end of the world. Others may view First Contact as a sign of religious significance. These people would probably be in the minority; however it is unlikely they would be a quiet minority.

Threat is certainly a legitimate concern in any First Contact event. Whether the aliens are light years away or just down the street, there is some degree of threat, especially perceived threat, until we know more about the situation. Information and education would be the key to keeping people calm, if indeed we should want to remain calm. Transparency would be essential. First Contact would have to be handled in a way that allayed fears and answered many legitimate questions.

I think the positive aspect of a dramatic Direct First Contact event is that it would draw all humans together in a collective living room of sorts. People would gather around televisions worldwide to see what happens next. While there have been many large world events that have brought people together, nothing would compare to dramatic First Contact. For whatever unrest such an event would create, it would also bring humans together in a way we have never experienced before. That common bond could be enough to sustain us through the great challenges that would come After First Contact.