Russia has a robust space program, prestigious research
institutions, and a reputation for taking First Contact seriously. This Acta
Astronautica article speaks to decades of Russian SETI (Search for Extraterrestrial
Intelligence) research. Soviet astronomer Nikolai Kardashev developed the
Kardashev Scale in 1964 as a way to measure a civilization's level of
technology based on the amount of energy that civilization uses. Aleksandr
Leonidovich Zaitsev is a Russian astronomer and the chief scientist at the
Russian Academy of Science's Institute of Radio Engineering and Electronics. He
is also the Regional Coordinator for Russia for the international SETI League. And
those are just two of the notable contributors to the field. There are many
others.
This would make Russia an important partner in the wake of alien
First Contact. Russia also has a permanent seat on the United Nations Security
Council, which would likely be one of the first groups to consider First
Contact response. The United States and China are the two other major players
in any First Contact situation and relations between the three countries is
turbulent. However, unlike the United States, the Russian government has been stable
for quite some time. Vladimir
Vladimirovich Putin has been the center of power in Russia for 19 years. The
major players in Russia come from the government and the realm of the so-called
oligarchs, business leaders who accumulated wealth and power after the break-up
of the Soviet Union.
Russian national
interests would likely be quite similar to the interests of every other nation in
the wake of First Contact. Scientists would want to be included in research and
the dissemination of extraterrestrial information. The Russian government would
want to make sure their country was safe from physical threat. Business leaders
would want access to any information that could be a catalyst for new
technology. The key difference from other countries is the significant Russian
presence in space and the power of the Russian military. These attributes make
it critical for Russia to be closely involved in decision making.
Superpowers may lead
the way After First Contact, but all humans have a right to transparency in
such deliberations. First Contact would be an event for all countries and for all
people to participate in, at least in terms of being aware of what is
occurring. Attempts to keep matters secret would be a big mistake. It could
have a grievous impact on international relations, a situation that could harm
all of the Security Council nations in the long-term. Keeping the UN General
Assembly and the world public informed of the process would not only be the
right thing to do, but the prudent thing to do. Making proceedings secret would
inflame reactionaries and provide a vacuum of information for media
commentators and conspiracy theorists to fill.
Russia does have a track
record of orchestrating covert public opinion campaigns in an attempt to impact
elections in several nations, including the United States. Some analysts have
argued that the overarching goal is to destabilize Western Democracies. Russia
is not the only country to use disinformation campaigns. The United States and
China have participated in such activities in certain situations over the
years. To do such After First Contact would be dangerous for all of humanity. A
Direct First Contact event, one where aliens say hello in our solar system,
would create uncertainty, and could be perceived as a threat to humanity. If
that fear is further inflamed by covert public opinion campaigns, there could
be conflict and violence. That conflict doesn’t have to come from countries, it
could be the actions of radical elements from a variety of viewpoints. In fact,
it may be tough to determine where such unrest would come from, considering
that we have never dealt with such an event before. If a nation attempted to
use a covert Internet campaign to seek advantage over their rivals, they could end
up harming themselves. First Contact would be a very different situation from
what we have been used to with international relations. World attention would
be intense and radical uprisings could easily travel from one nation to
another.
That said- the
message here is calm and patience. The so-called super powers will undoubtedly
lead the initial response to First Contact. However, what happens next will
depend on how they do it. If there is a sharing of information, and a response
process that involves all of the UN General Assembly nations, there is likely
to be a more measured response from the human public. That is not to say that
extremists won’t be active, but the degree to which the larger public joins
those groups would depend on the amount of transparency involved.
Enough of
international politics, let’s discuss the mood of the Russian people. I just
read a blog post about Russian considerations of alien First Contact that
reveals how the Russian people view such an event. They seem resigned to the
notion that it will happen in the United States and that the Americans will
control it. This article, a blog post by the New York University Jordan Center
for the Advanced Study of Russia, takes a lighthearted look, explaining that
Russian popular culture has not produced much fiction on the subject of
visiting aliens, and perhaps because of that basic assumption: that the United
States will control First Contact. The author relates an amusing story by a Russian
writer that describes the feeling of being left out. Now, granted, most
fictional accounts of visiting aliens have come from U.S. writers and have been
produced by U.S. filmmakers. So, Hollywood assuming that the United States military
would control First Contact is simply that, a Hollywood assumption. But perhaps
the rest of the world has bought into the notion? After all, fiction writing
and movies are about the only popular mediums that have considered First Contact.
Such dramatic, and often silly, stories are what most people know of the
subject and the same movies have been seen by audiences across the planet.
It’s hard to say how
that general feeling of expected U.S. dominance could impact a real First
Contact event. My gut says that it would probably lead to Russian and Chinese
leaders scrambling to exert influence. The United States would be wise to make
sure all of the UN Security Council nations have a say in the human response to
First Contact, both for short-term necessity and the furthering of long-term
relationships. First Contact would be an event for all nations to share
equally, both in decision making and in any benefits that may come from
information sharing with extraterrestrials. Russia will need to lead the way,
along with the United States and China, to make sure that happens.
No comments:
Post a Comment