There has
been a significant movement towards nationalism and protectionism across the
globe. The most notable examples would be the U.S. presidential election of Donald
Trump and the British vote to leave the European Union. While there is much
debate about the policies associated with nationalism and protectionism, the
philosophy comes down to world leaders wanting what they consider to be the best possible outcomes for their country.
First
contact with aliens would at first blush appear to be a threat to nationalism
and protectionism. Certainly from a military perspective it could be so- if the
aliens have hostile intentions. But if an extraterrestrial civilization offers
a non-threatening introduction that perspective could be very different for
world leaders, especially where it concerns the United Nations. The UN has long
been a flash-point when it comes to supporters of nationalism and
protectionism. The UN is often viewed as a threat to national sovereignty. But in a Direct First Contact situation, one
where the aliens come to our solar system to say hello, the United Nations
could be a necessary tool for world leaders.
Much of the
debate would be decided by the aliens themselves. If they extend their welcome
to one nation or a specific group of nations, that would have to be respected.
Other nations could argue their point, but ultimately it’s up to the aliens to
decide who they want to communicate with. The same is true if the aliens want
to deal with all nations. Individual countries could grumble about it and even
try to gain advantage behind the scenes. But if the aliens are not interested
in dealing with individual nations, this would quickly prove to be a fruitless
endeavor. More so, it could risk an individual nation’s relationship with
aliens and the rest of the world. This could prove to be a big problem for aggressive
nations who are intent on making their own deal. They may very well get left
out of the international deal-making.
The countries
most likely to seek control of First Contact would be the United States, Russia
and China. Why? They have much at stake with large economies and a preference
for asserting influence in global affairs. All three are members of the UN
Security Council- likely to be the first UN body to consider alien contact. The
question is how the use of their influence would be most effective – alone or
in the UN Security Council? Taking a separate path could be dangerous, as it
could cause the straying country to be less influential in the United Nations.
It would seem prudent for world leaders to consider this- the United Nations
may be their most effective way of exerting influence on the process. This is
true for the Security Council nations, especially the P5 permanent serving nations
of China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States. Other
nations would also be advised to exert their influence through the United
Nations. To go it alone would be foolhardy. If the aliens want to deal with
individual nations they will. If they want to deal with everyone, the United
Nations would be the best alternative for individual countries.
The problem
is what the United Nations represents for nationalists- the threat of an
extra-governmental agency running the show. There is already a fear of the
United Nations turning into a world government. First Contact would likely
increase that fear. However, in the specific case of alien First Contact the
United Nations could be viewed as a valuable tool- a conduit of sorts for contact.
The major nations exert much influence over the United Nations currently and
would continue to do so in a First Contact scenario. Less powerful nations
would have their only opportunity to be involved in the decision making process
through the United Nations. Does this mean that the United Nations should gain
more control over international affairs? That would depend on how the
arrangement is put together. In a conduit scenario the UN would be a process
body. And much of First Contact would be about process. Nations could decide
how the UN should structure response to First Contact and the framework for a
global relationship with aliens. Strong involvement from the General Assembly
in the decision-making process could ensure national control. It also means a
great deal of responsibility for nations to work together and make decisions
with alacrity. Hesitance and in-fighting could make a General Assembly controlled
First Contact strategy untenable. Nations can control how much of the process
is decided by United Nations bureaucracy. There will have to be some level of
action and decision-making in the United Nations. The framework for the process
will be an important point for General Assembly consideration. It comes down to
this: if the General Assembly can be effective in decision-making countries
will retain control. If they fail, the bureaucrats in the UN will have to lead
the way. That means it is critical that American, Russian and Chinese UN
ambassadors work together to solidify support for actions in the General
Assembly. This is the type of superpower leadership that will be necessary in
the wake of First Contact. Those ambassadors can be extremely important in the
process, but only if they have the complete backing of their bosses. And First
Contact would not be a time to play games. If a national leader chooses to “go
rogue” in public statements and push for something else behind the scenes they
could find their national influence undermined. Any sign of gamesmanship would
send a signal to other nations that the process cannot be trusted.
So, how
should the United States, China and Russia present themselves in a First
Contact situation? It depends on what the aliens want in the First Contact
process. If the aliens want to deal with the entire planet it would seem best
for the big three, and the rest of the UN Security Council members, to act as
strong leaders within the context of the UN. It seems likely that the nations
who figure this out quickly, and set forth a UN-based strategy will fare better
in the post- First Contact world. It’s one situation in which going it alone
could be a very, very bad idea.
Thursday, December 1, 2016
Wednesday, November 2, 2016
Extraterrestrial Contact: Cultural Autonomy
Cultural autonomy is the ability of a group of people
to decide their own fate. Cultural harm is one of the significant threats that
we would have to consider in a direct alien First Contact event. It’s a topic addressed
in a recently published book titled “Commercial Space Exploration: Ethics,
Policy and Governance.” In one chapter Philadelphia area writer Brent Franklin
focuses on the interaction between civilizations and what that could mean for
humans in a First Contact situation. Cultural harm is the potential damage that
interaction between civilizations could have, especially for the weaker,
less-advanced society. Franklin points to Brazilian relations with the isolated
tribes of the Amazon. These may be the last such isolated societies on the
planet. Brazil has gone to great lengths to protect the autonomy of the
indigenous tribes. Those actions are based on the negative outcomes for many
other tribes in previous years. Interaction with humans has collapsed
indigenous economic and social structures, to the point of completely dissolving
some cultures. This is not a new aspect of human life. We have experienced such
actions for thousands of years. Some may argue that it is a natural progression
for more advanced societies to subsume less advanced. However, in the last 100
years fierce opposition to this argument has developed. It can be seen in the
efforts of Native North Americans to preserve their culture, much of which was
decimated by European settlement and intrusion.
We may consider our human society rather advanced in
terms of depth and complexity. But there could be risks in interaction with
extraterrestrials. Technology is one of the most obvious considerations. Should
aliens provide technological information to us? If they are more advanced we
may not even have the foundation to understand alien technology. But if we did,
would having knowledge given to us make us stronger or weaker? Science is a foundational
system that grows through the sharing of ideas and replication of study results.
Each new piece of information is a building block, but that block is only put
in place once it has been critically reviewed. Along the way, all sorts of
other ideas, challenges and considerations can come to light. Human science is
a complicated set of interactions and development. Alien technology could throw
us off course. Or it could make us dependent on alien tutoring.
Human religion could also suffer cultural harm.
Perhaps the aliens have a religious system that is adopted by humans? That could
undermine human religions and have a drastic impact on human culture.
There could also be benefits to alien interaction with
humans. New ideas could cause us to develop our technology in new directions
and grow our religious perspectives. A lot would depend on how interaction with
aliens would occur. The negative comparisons in human history usually involve
the new society encroaching on the geography of the indigenous group, quite
often through dominance and even war. If aliens were not threatening us
physically, could interaction create positive change for the human
civilization? Many would argue that we need new religious perspectives, as religion
is the source of much conflict here on Earth. Perhaps alien technology could be
shared in a way that would incorporate our human scientific system?
Cultural autonomy is the ability of a group of people
to guide the future development of their culture. If there is agreement that
some alien perspectives might be beneficial, those perspectives could be incorporated
into human society. The point is that humans need to make the decisions. If aliens
do visit our solar system some day they will be encroaching on our space. We should
be the ones who decide how the relationship should progress. We should have the
ability to limit and control contact. That could even mean turning down alien assistance.
Franklin suggests a “peaceful and cautious approach to
contact.” This is something I have been promoting for several years now. Yes,
there would be clear threats to humanity in an alien First Contact scenario,
especially if it is Direct First Contact, taking place in our solar system. But
there may also be benefits in such a relationship. The tough part would be
setting up a framework for the relationship that would allow for that “peaceful
and cautious approach.”
In simple terms humans would need to assess the
following in any First Contact scenario:
-The details of the situation itself: what are the
aliens proposing?
-Our position in this scenario: what are our weaknesses
and strengths?
-The risk that further contact could provide to the
human civilization
-The benefits that further contact could provide to
human civilization
It’s basically the SWOT analysis that businesses use
for planning. You evaluate strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats. From
there you can develop a short-term response and a long-term strategy.
Tuesday, October 4, 2016
Extraterrestrial Contact: Everyone in the Same Boat?
I make assumptions on this blog. One major one is that there
are at least a few civilizations in our Galaxy far in advance of us in terms of
technology. This would really be our only hope for communicating with extraterrestrials.
A presentation by Cornell University student Evan Solomonides says that we
shouldn’t hold our breath waiting. His extrapolation is that it could be 1,500
years until First Contact. He made his remarks to an American Astronomical
Society meeting this year. Space.com writer Nola Redd reports that Solomonides
thinks humans may be on the same development track as any other
extraterrestrial civilization that may be out there. Meaning that
extraterrestrials are probably no more or less technologically advanced than
us. This idea is based on the particular mixture of heavy elements needed to
produce life as we know it. It takes many generations of stars to produce the
amount needed to produce life. That means most other stars with life would be
along the same timeline as us.
It’s an interesting idea. Many people have been attempting to
answer the Fermi Paradox, which asks why we haven’t heard from
extraterrestrials yet. Solomonides would argue that if they are out there, they
simply haven’t developed enough for us to hear them or for them to hear us. And
that’s what the search for extraterrestrial life comes down to for humans right
now- radio and television signals traveling through space.
There are plenty of other reasons we may not have heard from
extraterrestrials- they may not care to talk to us. They may have sophisticated
methods of communication that we can’t detect. They may be waiting to say hello
until we are further developed. They may not care if any other civilizations
are out there. But the idea of equal technological development is an
interesting idea. I suppose if that is the case, we really won’t know anything
for many more generations. That, in and of itself, is kind of an annoying idea.
Thanks Evan.
Wednesday, September 7, 2016
Extraterrestrial Contact: Let There Be Light
The reliance on radio wave searches of the universe, in
hopes of intercepting signals from extraterrestrial civilizations, may be too
narrow. That’s what astronomers have been suggesting for some time now. Radio
waves are already diminishing in importance for humans. So, why expect that an
alien civilization would use them at all?
Next up is light. There are a few projects underway using light searches and proposing light communication on our part. A recent post in ScienceBlog describes a paper by UC Santa Barbara researcher Philip Lubin. He suggests in the journal REACH that directed energy may be useful in the search for extraterrestrials.
“In our paper, we propose a search strategy that will observe nearly 100 billion planets, allowing us to test our hypothesis that other similarly or more advanced civilizations with this same broadcast capability exist,” Lubin said. –ScienceBlog
Next up is light. There are a few projects underway using light searches and proposing light communication on our part. A recent post in ScienceBlog describes a paper by UC Santa Barbara researcher Philip Lubin. He suggests in the journal REACH that directed energy may be useful in the search for extraterrestrials.
“In our paper, we propose a search strategy that will observe nearly 100 billion planets, allowing us to test our hypothesis that other similarly or more advanced civilizations with this same broadcast capability exist,” Lubin said. –ScienceBlog
Of course, it is entirely possible that even light would be
an outmoded communication technique for extraterrestrials. It seems clear,
though, that the only hope in this search is to constantly reevaluate our
methods and utilize the latest advances in human technology to help re-define
the search.
Tuesday, August 30, 2016
HD 164595: An Example of How Tough Discovery Notification Will Be
Update: Russian scientists now call the signal terrestrial in origin. More here.
There's a sudden rush of excitement on the Internet about star HD 164595 in the Hercules constellation. An Italian scientist found a strange signal emanating from the star on May 15, 2016. According to SETI there have been 39 observations since that time, in attempts to replicate the signal. Nothing else has been discovered. So, why all the excitement? A blogger apparently got advance word of the search, details of which were due to be presented during a conference in September. Internet speculators and the mainstream media, including CNN, have jumped on board this week. While the stories themselves offer a more complete analysis, the headlines are rather excited.
Who knows? This could be what everyone has been waiting for- an actual signal from an alien civilization. But the only way scientists can begin to prove that is by finding the signal again, and again, and again. They are still looking in many frequency ranges and even for any possible laser light emission.
This is another example of how quick information can spread and the danger of that speculation. One can only imagine what would happen if scientists do make a discovery some day. This shows that it will likely come out prematurely and lead to rampant speculation. The difficult thing about speculation is that it could lead anywhere...so if there is some element of truth, it can be spun so many different ways people won't know what to believe.
What can we do? Pay attention to trusted sources. The folks at the SETI Institute in Mountain View California have been through this more than once. Seth Shostak is a good source for an educated, and well informed, scientific opinion. Just watch out in the mainstream media. I have already seen quotes from Shostak and colleague Douglas Vakoch, twisted around in reports that make things seem more exciting than they are- yet.
We need to have patience and let scientists do the hard and often tedious work that is required when there is an unexplained astral phenomena. Here's a link to the situation on the SETI Institute website. This is a recently updated link to the star HD 164595 Wikipedia page with a lot more about the sun and why this signal is so intriguing to SETI researchers.
There's a sudden rush of excitement on the Internet about star HD 164595 in the Hercules constellation. An Italian scientist found a strange signal emanating from the star on May 15, 2016. According to SETI there have been 39 observations since that time, in attempts to replicate the signal. Nothing else has been discovered. So, why all the excitement? A blogger apparently got advance word of the search, details of which were due to be presented during a conference in September. Internet speculators and the mainstream media, including CNN, have jumped on board this week. While the stories themselves offer a more complete analysis, the headlines are rather excited.
Who knows? This could be what everyone has been waiting for- an actual signal from an alien civilization. But the only way scientists can begin to prove that is by finding the signal again, and again, and again. They are still looking in many frequency ranges and even for any possible laser light emission.
This is another example of how quick information can spread and the danger of that speculation. One can only imagine what would happen if scientists do make a discovery some day. This shows that it will likely come out prematurely and lead to rampant speculation. The difficult thing about speculation is that it could lead anywhere...so if there is some element of truth, it can be spun so many different ways people won't know what to believe.
What can we do? Pay attention to trusted sources. The folks at the SETI Institute in Mountain View California have been through this more than once. Seth Shostak is a good source for an educated, and well informed, scientific opinion. Just watch out in the mainstream media. I have already seen quotes from Shostak and colleague Douglas Vakoch, twisted around in reports that make things seem more exciting than they are- yet.
We need to have patience and let scientists do the hard and often tedious work that is required when there is an unexplained astral phenomena. Here's a link to the situation on the SETI Institute website. This is a recently updated link to the star HD 164595 Wikipedia page with a lot more about the sun and why this signal is so intriguing to SETI researchers.
Tuesday, August 2, 2016
Extraterrestrial Contact: Anyone Out There?
There are two basic schools of thought when it comes to the possibility
of intelligent extraterrestrial life in the universe. One group insists that
the “eerie silence” means that we are alone in the universe. We have been
listening for more than fifty years now and there has yet to be an alien signal
discovered. The other group insists that we have searched a tiny bit of the
observable universe and we have used technology that may very well be
irrelevant to extraterrestrials- the radio spectrum.
Lee Speigel with the Huffington Post writes about a new
effort to predict the possibility of extraterrestrial intelligence in the
universe. His story focuses on an Astrobiology journal paper by Adam
Frank and Woodruff Sullivan. They use new data from the search for exoplanets
to update the famous Drake Equation. Frank Drake sought to quantify the
possibility of extraterrestrial intelligence in the universe back in 1961. His
equation is still in use today. The Astrobiology paper, as outlined by Speigel,
suggests that the new exoplanet research be used to update the equation.
According to NASA, There have been 3,268 expoplanets discovered as of May 19,
2016. The Astrobiology authors extrapolation of this number is
rather astonishing to consider:
“Even if you are pretty pessimistic and think that you’d
have to search through 100 billion (habitable zone) planets before you found
one where a civilization developed, then there have still been a trillion
civilizations over cosmic history!” Frank wrote. “When I think about that, my
mind reels — even if there is just a one in a 100 billion chance of evolution
creating exo-civilizations, the universe still has made so many of them that we
are swamped by histories other than our own.” –Huffington Post
It’s quite a difference in perspective- either we are the
only civilization in the universe or there may be a trillion civilizations in
the history of the universe.
All considerations, with this little real information, is
basically speculation. Even with the scientific discovery of thousands of exoplanets,
we still don’t know enough about how life could develop outside of the Earth to
truly consider the possibility of life on another planet, or for that matter a
trillion planets. The article does provide some new ammunition for those
seeking extraterrestrial intelligence. The discovery of exoplanets and more
importantly, the nature of those exoplanets, allows us to now focus our search
in a way that we could not even five years ago.
We need to update the search with the continuing discovery
of exoplanets. We need to update our search strategies to get beyond the radio
spectrum. We need to keep searching.
Friday, July 1, 2016
Extraterrestrial Contact: Those Damn Aliens
Independence Day, one of the better marauding alien movies,
is back with part two. It has some people considering space defense. It’s not
an unreasonable topic, if you think alien civilizations exist and that they
have the ability to travel to Earth. A Forbes contributor, Bruce Dorminey, recently
took up the subject. He talked to physicists to discuss how humans might
prevent a sneak attack. Not surprisingly it all comes down to the technology available
to visiting aliens. If they travel at less than the speed of light they would
probably be detectable. If they know something about physics that we don’t know-
and can travel faster than the speed of light- we would be in trouble.
The other issue is space defense. Detection is one thing- but
what do you do next? People have suggested building space defense…usually
nuclear missiles in space. That is currently banned as part of an international
UN treaty for the peaceful uses of space. No one wants another country putting
nuclear missiles in space.
It’s unlikely anyone will spend money on what is probably
the biggest “what if” in human history. There is no evidence that intelligent
alien life exists, let alone that they have the technological ability to travel
here. This is just speculation now, but can you imagine the reaction if some
day we do discover intelligent alien life out there? I would suspect that there
would be an immediate call for detection and defense platforms in space. There
could even be a space arms race. We will need to carefully consider the
circumstances if that does occur. If the aliens are much more technologically
advanced than us- defense may be a moot point. And no matter what we would have
to consider the risk of putting missiles in space. Exactly who would control
them?
In the meantime, stick with the movie. I haven’t seen it
yet, but I would guess the humans win in the end.
Monday, June 6, 2016
Extraterrestrial Contact: Responding to Social Media Demands
It’s tough to keep anything secret these days. There are so
many outlets for information that news tends to be instantaneous. That’s a big
change from 1989 when the International Academy of Astronautics put together a
set of protocols for the detection of a signal from an extraterrestrial
civilization
Cathal O’Connell writes in Cosmos about a proposal to update those protocols. University of
St. Andrews researchers Duncan Fargan and Alexander Scholz suggest a speedier
process for public dissemination of news of an alien signal discovery. This is
a big difference from the current protocol, which calls for researchers working
together behind the scenes, to confirm that the signal is indeed of intelligent
origin before taking it public. The reason for the suggested change is simple:
it is likely someone in that chain of researchers would put it up on Twitter or
Facebook before it could be confirmed. The authors point out in their Acta
Astronautica article that the social media revelations could contain incorrect
information or be misinterpreted. It would be better to have an open release to
the public of preliminary information. Research to confirm the discovery can
follow.
Communication has changed significantly. It is critical for
researchers to consider those changes when it comes to announcing a possible
extraterrestrial signal or contact. I think this article points to a larger
issue. Transparency would be essential in any first contact scenario. It’s
important that correct information be available to the public as soon as
possible, so that speculation and rumors can’t overtake the facts.
The article brings up another interesting aspect of our age:
the dangers associated with revelation of extraterrestrials contact. O’Connell
writes that Fargan and Scholz suggest hazards for those making such an
announcement. The researchers could be subject to Internet based intrusions and
attacks.
Keeping up with the Internet and social media won’t be easy.
Speculation and rumors would likely fly no matter how much researchers work to
put out correct information. It’s critical to take into account the possible
reaction to news of First Contact now. When it happens there will barely be
time to think before the news has reached the entire world.
Monday, May 2, 2016
Extraterrestrial Contact: Politics and Space Aliens
I’ll just go ahead and say it this way: if aliens have any
plans to visit Earth they had damn well better keep an eye on our politics. I
know that is unfair, as most human political situations are a vast cesspool of
ego aggrandizement and power grabs. But despite the disgusting nature of the
subject, it would be important for extraterrestrials to consider. Political
matters offer an indication of the stability of governments. Governmental leaders
would be key decision-makers in the wake of a Direct First Contact event.
Let me wade hip-deep into the political muck by first
examining the current presidential race in the United States. If I was an alien
(I am not) I would consider the timing of my big hello. Would I want to make
First Contact when there is a lame duck U.S. president in office? Should I wait
for a new president to take command? The advantage of the lame duck president
is that they have very little to lose politically, hopefully enabling them to
act thoughtfully and make decisions based on the long-term well-being of the
U.S. and the world. A lame duck president also has experience with all sorts of
crises and many veteran cabinet and staff members. A new president has the
advantage of newness- they have not yet developed the network of enemies that a
veteran president has. A new president would also have more time to carry
through with an extraterrestrial policy.
The big issue during an election cycle is candidate
reaction. Presidential candidates are more likely to present brash ideas during
an election, in an effort to appeal to voting blocs. Candidates don’t have the
same responsibilities as a sitting president. Alien First Contact would be
wrapped up in a huge political debate in regards to our response, no matter
when it happens. That debate could be much more aggressive during an election
cycle.
The political situations in Russia, France, China and the
United Kingdom would also be important to consider. They are the other standing
members of the United Nations Security Council. They would likely have a large
role in diplomatic relations with an extraterrestrial civilization. Evaluating
politics in Russia and China might be tough for aliens. Much of the important
decision-making process is conducted out of the public in these two nations.
That’s not to say that behind the scenes political decisions don’t happen in
the United States, France and the U.K. But the nature of news coverage in those
nations, and less government control of the political process, makes it more
likely decisions will be made in public.
So, how do aliens go about evaluating the situations in
China and Russia? They would have to do what reporters around the world do when
examining the countries- get as local as possible with sources and know enough
about the nature of each government to understand what is really going on when
they make public announcements.
This could all be accomplished on the Internet. But it means
that extraterrestrials would need to take the time to study us, before saying
hello. I understand the argument could be made that aliens would not understand
or care to understand, our human political systems. However, I think that if
they have the technological means to travel to our solar system, they would also
have the ability to study and learn. The value in evaluating human politics is
simple: it can give you an indication of how various governments, and the
United Nations, might react in a Direct First Contact situation. This includes
military reaction and that’s a big one. You don’t want to scare leaders of an
unstable nation.
Another factor to consider is United Nations leadership. The
process is underway now to pick a new Secretary General. That position would be
critical in any First Contact scenario. The same thoughts apply- do you want to
say hello with a lame duck Secretary General or wait for a new Secretary
General to take office?
How would aliens take in all this information and could they
ever fully understand the human implications? That’s impossible to say. But we
humans do a good job of putting it all out there. There are thousands and
thousands of political blogs, academic works and other analyses of political
situations available on the Internet. An alien wouldn’t need to start from
scratch. There are plenty of humans evaluating politics and offering
insight. That does raise another
concern: lies and exaggerations on the Internet. Humans have enough trouble
keeping information on the Internet straight. How would aliens do it,
considering the fine points of human behavior might be hard for them to
understand? Let’s just hope the aliens take their time and study the cesspool
of human politics very carefully before they say hello.
Wednesday, April 6, 2016
Extraterrestrial Contact: Humor and Honesty
Many humans would be anxious about First Contact with an
extraterrestrial civilization, if it ever happens some day. A quick review of
First Contact fiction plots in popular media shows the anxiety quite clearly.
Books and movies have dwelled on the negative for decades. And there is a
possibility that First Contact could be a real problem for humans. However, it
seems more likely that First Contact would be a mixed bag of positive and
negative impacts. It also seems likely that many of the outcomes will depend on
how humans respond to First Contact. Negative outcomes may be due to negative
human reaction and have nothing to do with aliens. Managing those reactions will
be important in the wake of First Contact.
I think it would be important to maintain the “humanity” in
any First Contact event. That can be
accomplished with honest communication, transparency in action and the use of
humor.
Why humor? It’s a human way of relieving tension and acknowledging
fears, and could help to calm people. Serious matters would need to be handled
seriously, but there should be plenty of room in the process for humor. Such
techniques would, of course, depend on the nature of First Contact. If aliens
are reigning down missiles on Washington and Moscow, humor wouldn’t be such a
good idea. But in a more positive scenario, humor could serve to act as a reassuring
anchor for people watching First Contact coverage. Humor would remind them that
this is a human event and not the end of the world. Aside from relieving
tension, humor can help in communication. It is a way to address concerns and
counteract negative stereotypes with less confrontation than a more direct
approach.
Governments don’t do a very good job utilizing humor. Some
politicians have learned the value of the technique. And that’s an important
point. Institutions can’t show a sense of humor about a situation, but people
can. Humor, honesty and transparency will need to start with the major human
players in a First Contact situation. Hopefully, with good examples from those
individuals and good results, it could be a foundation for the process going
forward.
The most important part of communication would be honesty.
Humans have been trained by Hollywood writers to expect conspiracy in an alien
First Contact scenario. The best way to be honest is to be transparent. The
entire human population has a right to know exactly what is occurring at each
step in the process After First Contact. Meetings should be made public,
whenever possible. At the very least, closed door meetings should be summarized
for the public afterwards. This would not be easy to achieve without a
struggle. Governments often act behind closed doors when it comes to security
decisions. There would be many security considerations in a Direct First
Contact situation. Governmental leaders would need to weigh their options carefully.
The benefit of having a closed door meeting, and not reporting on the outcome
of that meeting, could be minimal compared to the value of keeping the public
informed and calm.
Perhaps the biggest fear in the back of the collective human
mind in a First Contact event would be the alien perspective. Will it overwhelm
our human world? Will we somehow lose our humanity in the process of having a
relationship with extraterrestrials? Humor and honesty could help to keep the
process of Contact human in nature, and thus understandable, and hopefully acceptable,
to the world public.
What do you think? Give your opinion in a comment here or
visit the Alien First Contact Facebook page.
Tuesday, March 1, 2016
Extraterrestrial Contact: Fears
Fear would be a understandable, and perhaps
common, human reaction in any extraterrestrial First Contact scenario. It would
be a big concern in a Direct First Contact situation. Here is a breakdown of
possible human fears:
Fear
of Attack- Hollywood has primed us for this fear with a
million movies about marauding aliens attacking Earth. The threat of attack is
a legitimate fear, but only in the context of the actual situation.
Fear
of Interference- Concerns about aliens interfering in human
activities, either behind the scenes or openly, are also legitimate, and need
to be addressed.
Fear
of Conspiracy- This worry would probably focus on some group
of human beings having a secret deal with aliens that would give those humans
an advantage. This could be a particular country or some subset of human
society.
Fear
of Change- We’re already overwhelmed by changes in our
society and our technology. Information overload would be an issue.
Fear
of Being Left Out- This could be a fear held by a particular group
of humans or group of countries. The fear would stem from being left out of
decision-making and not receiving the benefits of First Contact. This will be
especially true for developing nations.
Fear
of Loss of Control- This will be a concern for many humans, but
especially for those who are in control of some human institution.
Fear
of Religious Change- This stems from the possibility that
information provided by extraterrestrials will somehow undermine particular
religions, thus throwing faith into disarray.
Fear
for the Future- What will humans become After First Contact?
Will we become more like aliens? Will the trajectory for human development be
changed? And for better or for worse?
Calming fears will be important in a First
Contact situation. International and government leaders will need to speak
often to address concerns and set up commissions or panels to respond to
legitimate fears. Scientists and other experts will need to put developments
into context for the rest of humanity and explore legitimate concerns. The news
media will have to be careful about responding to rumor and misinformation.
Context will also be critical for the media to truly serve the public. Humanity
will learn about First Contact developments primarily from the media, so there
is a tremendous responsibility there for journalists, and perhaps most
importantly, those who lead newsrooms and media companies.
Everything concerning First Contact would need to
be out in the open. Transparency would be essential to prevent
misunderstandings and diminish fear of conspiracy. There should be open
meetings for all developments in the First Contact process. Those meetings
should be streamed on the web for everyone to view. Leaders will need to
respond to rumors and misinformation immediately.
Every human would need to be included in the
process, in some way. That means all nations need representation in
decision-making. Leaders would need to listen to public opinion, and even
fringe groups, to hear concerns and respond to legitimate concerns. A bunker
mentality could be disastrous for leaders.
The rational middle of human society will need to
be fully engaged and prepared to speak out, if necessary. Fringe groups will be
quite loud. They cannot be allowed to dominate the discussion.
It may take a while for some of these fears to
develop. Leaders shouldn’t assume that a calm public in the first few days and
weeks After First Contact means that the calm will continue indefinitely. There
will be a period where humans and human leaders are stunned and simply
processing information. This will not last. Humans will need to respond quickly
to put into place a framework for responding to fear.
Monday, February 1, 2016
Extraterrestrial Contact: The Danger and Importance of Fringe Groups
Observation shows that human social behavior often follows
predictable patterns at the macro level. That’s why I think you can discuss
possible human social reaction to alien First Contact. At the macro level we
will probably react much as we do to other challenges and debates.
Fringe groups are major players in human social debates. A
fringe group could be described as a smaller, organized contingent of people
with beliefs that fall closer to the absolute pole than they do the middle
ground. If we look at human social reaction to a big issue, such as abortion,
you see two opposite poles and a continuum of opinion in between. The one pole
believes that there should be absolutely no abortions under any circumstances.
The other pole considers abortion to be the right of a woman to control her own
body, allowable under whatever circumstances the woman decides. Most of us
would probably fall in between these two extremes. Surveys show that to be the
case. Clearly, it’s a complicated issue that involves much more than simply
these two poles. But viewing the debate in this way allows us to see forces at
work.
It seems to me that the middle ground of any human debate is
often the quietest position. There seem to be less advocacy organizations representing
the middle ground. Institutions and larger, more broad-based, organizations
often occupy the middle.
Fringe groups, operating near the poles of the debate, are
usually much smaller in actual numbers of followers. Either because of this, or
due to the inherent passions of those in these positions, fringe groups tend to
be quite vocal. It’s important to note that in any large debate there are
likely to be many fringe groups operating at each pole. They sometimes work
together, and at other times they disagree and fight with each other. This can
be due to philosophical differences or simply the human problems of ego and
control. A fringe group at either pole seeks to influence the debate and
convince people in the middle. They do this via protests and other events
designed to garner media coverage. However, some members will view these
methods as unproductive and engage in civil unrest. Even smaller groups may
choose violence.
This type of human reaction can be seen again and again,
throughout human history. In the 1960’s war protestors held marches and
rallies. Some groups thought that rallies were not enough and provoked riots.
Still others resorted to bombings.
This may all sound negative at first blush. But we need to
understand the importance of fringe groups. They often represent a way of
thinking that is at odds with the current actions of society. An example is the
abolitionist movement well before the Civil War in America. Many regarded abolitionists
as radicals in the early days. As the debate became more widespread, the larger
group of abolitionists spoke publicly and changed minds, leading to greater support.
A smaller group helped to build the Underground Railroad. Even smaller groups
participated in violent revolt. Would America have rejected slavery if not for
the abolitionist fringe groups? It’s much easier to stay in stasis than to
participate in change. Fringe groups provoke debate and often action. They may
help us to see things in terms we could not before. It’s occurring today with
the animal rights movement. The push to protect animals in the food chain is
operating at a pole. Some groups believe in public education. Other groups take
more radical action.
It’s important to note that fringe groups can also make
existing situations much worse. That seems to be occurring in the Islamic and
Christian communities. The groups at the poles of radical Islam and radical
Christianity are engaging in all-out war. Extremist Islamic groups are attacking
the larger human society and that provokes radical Christians to promote
separatism. Those of us in the middle have to endure the violence and also
struggle to keep Muslims and Christians together in a common society. Groups
are struggling for power and control in the world of Muslim and Christian
extremists. Even more dangerous- there is an apocalyptic/religious reward element
involved on both sides. That means the parties often do not act rationally.
So, let’s bring this back to extraterrestrial First Contact.
The human reaction to intelligent alien First Contact will
probably correspond to the degree of tension involved in the situation. If we
are communicating with a far-off civilization, and our messages take years or
decades to travel, that will be a low level of tension. The second degree of
tension would be fast communication with a far-off extraterrestrial civilization.
This would assume that the extraterrestrials have communication technology to
do such, because we are still stuck at the speed of light for transmission and
most stars are many light years away. The third level of tension would be
representatives of an extraterrestrial civilization arriving in our solar
system. The tension in this scenario comes from the threat of close proximity
and the prospect of dramatic change in our perspective, if the aliens are
willing to share information.
First Contact would lead to a big debate over what we should
do next: welcome aliens with open arms or tell them to go away. These would be
the poles. The continuum of reaction would fall between these two extremes.
However, it seems inevitable that there would be extremist fringe groups
operating at these poles. Fear would likely drive the isolationists. Hope would
be important for the open arms contingent. Power will be a big factor in a
Direct First Contact scenario. Some groups may also find apocalyptic connections
to First Contact. The results could be chaotic and challenging. Some extremist
groups could turn to civil unrest and violence, especially on the isolationist
side. Fear appeals will be common. Rumors and misinformation will run rampant.
How can we predict such things for First Contact? Just look
at the current debates in our world. Fear based appeals; power grabs and
apocalyptic thinking are part of many fringe groups embroiled in a wide variety
of issues.
Despite the negative aspects of fringe groups, they need to
be heard and their ideas considered. As I mentioned before, human society
sometimes needs a push that only fringe groups can provide. The AIDS medical
research debate in the 1980s and 90s was a heated battle between activists and
health institutions. In the end, the work of the fringe groups, often nasty and
confrontational, pushed the government to take action. Without the vehemence of
AIDS research fringe groups, the tremendous progress that has been made in AIDS
treatment might not have happened. It certainly sped up the process.
What do we do then, in the wake of First Contact?
We need to listen to fringe groups and carefully consider
their arguments. We need to separate the facts and legitimate concerns from the
fear and misinformation. We need to put it all in context and then begin to
make decisions. The real problem may be the media. The media loves fringe
groups, because they are confrontational and controversial. That makes for
dramatic pictures and enticing headlines. There will have to be a massive
effort to get voices from the middle of the debate heard. Perhaps it would be
time for radical moderation? Moderate thinking could be expressed in the ways
normally used by fringe groups- protests and public demonstrations. Moderates,
having considered all sides, will need to be heard in order for us to proceed
in a positive way after First Contact. Violence and civil unrest need to be
rejected and dialogue promoted. It won’t be easy, but in the end decisions will
have to made and action taken by humans. We can’t let debate devolve into a
long-standing feud and inaction.
Can we respond to alien First Contact without the violence
and acrimony that has marked so many human disagreements? Hopefully. But it is
clear to me that there can be no bystanders in such a debate. Once all ideas
have been considered, the sensible majority, the rational middle, will need to
speak up and be heard.
What do you think? Give your opinion in a comment here or
visit the Alien First Contact Facebook page.
Monday, January 4, 2016
Extraterrestrial Contact: The Timeline of How We Will React
Wonder or horror. We never go much further than these dramatic and yet shallow human reactions to direct alien First Contact in our film and fiction. If extraterrestrials say hello to us, before we discover them, there would be a big impact to our human civilization. I like to consider that impact to humanity, past the knee-jerk reactions in the initial moments. This is an examination of extraterrestrial First Contact in a timeline of possible human reaction based on our current human condition.
Step 1: Contact
The initial revelation and reaction. People will be stunned.
Leaders will scramble to cope. It will seem at first that the initial wonder
will last forever. It won’t.
Groups involved: scientists, media, government, first
responders and military.
Public: acting as spectators only, no impact aside from
psychological.
Length: This period will be quite short, perhaps a few days.
Step 2: Communication
The very first communication between humans and
extraterrestrials would probably focus on the reason for the alien visit and a
discussion of a process to move forward.
Groups involved: international agencies, governments, media,
and perhaps scientists. With any luck the international agencies will quickly
establish advisory boards from important scientific areas, especially the
social sciences. The primary issues we will face are social science issues.
Public: the coalescing of individual reactions into
movements begins.
Length: A few days or a couple of weeks.
Step 3: Negotiation
The discussions lead to concrete proposals and
counter-proposals for action in developing a framework for a relationship. How
much information will they provide us? How will they provide it? What do we
humans control in the process? Politicians begin to assert themselves. Some
people seek to grab power by utilizing fear to mobilize the public.
Groups involved: international agencies, governments,
politicians, media, public and hopefully scientists. Civil society organizations
will also become involved, advocating for the dispossessed public.
Public: beginning to impact government action and
international agencies through opinion polls and formation of movements in
reaction to First Contact. There could be the very first sign of civil unrest
during this period. Fringe groups will become quite active.
Length: It could last anywhere from a few days to several
weeks, depending on the amount of debate between nations and inside
international agencies. The length is critical, because the longer negotiation
takes, the more time it gives for civil unrest and violence to break out. The
lack of a concrete plan will lead to instability.
Step 4: The Relationship Begins
The first trading of information in an organized fashion
takes place.
Groups involved: Scientists, international agencies,
governments, media, fringe groups, religious leaders, civil service agencies
and the public.
Public: fully involved, some groups responding with action,
civil unrest and violence. Fear based appeals by politicians and other people
seeking power. It becomes difficult for scientists and international agencies
to do their jobs because of the noise of the conflict.
Length: A few weeks or possibly months.
Step 5: The Relationship Continues or Isolationism
Develops
This is the true fork in the road. The debate that has been
raging will lead towards a positive framework for a relationship or the debate
will cause some nations to separate and isolate. Isolationism could be
accompanied by calls for military reaction for defense. The military could
become an active part of the debate.
Groups involved: everyone in developed nations and
increasingly the public in developing nations. We need to listen to developing
nations and the concerns of their citizens.
Length: no longer an issue.
Step 6: A Long-term Relationship or Isolationism
Prevails
There may be a split here between nations. Some may choose
isolationism and others may choose to continue in an information exchange with
extraterrestrials. However, this type of split seems unlikely. Nations outside
of the relationship with extraterrestrials would be worried about missing out
on technological and economic benefits of contact. It seems more likely that it
will be all or nothing for human reaction, with the debate being played out in
the United Nations. Nations must be shown the benefits of a unified international
response to First Contact. Scientific advisory boards can provide the expertise
and information to support this effort.
Step 7: The Long-Term Impact
Disruptions to the economy could be quite hard on the
public. Some industries may wither in the new perspective and others may grow
stronger. This could leave workers in a difficult situation, especially for
those lacking the education to take part in the development of new technology.
Nations will need to respond to these challenges early, through massive
education programs and workforce training partnerships with industry.
The big question is: when would we actually benefit from
extraterrestrial contact? It could take a while. The positives, aside from the
wonder of revelation, could take months, years or decades to develop. And in
the meantime, the negative impacts could cause us to turn our backs on
extraterrestrials. Isolationism could be a big debate, just a few weeks or
months into First Contact. Sadly, if it grows unmanageable, fear has the
possibility of ruining our relationship with extraterrestrials and never
allowing us to experience the benefits of contact.
Our Human Challenge
I know this sounds quite negative. And it will seem
inconceivable in those first few heady hours after the announcement of First
Contact. But that wonder of enlightenment could quickly lead to human conflict.
We need to be prepared for this. We need to develop a First Contact framework
to reduce conflict. Initial kneejerk reactions will be impossible to control.
But what happens next, with those reactions coalescing into movements and long-term
change, can be managed if we are prepared to counteract the negatives
immediately with the facts, whatever they may be. As I have said many times- a
little paranoia is a good thing. It helps humans to be cautious and consider
the risks properly. Rampant paranoia can lead to all sorts of horrible
reactions. Preventing this will take fast-acting leadership, courage and true vision.
Let’s just hope that our scientific community, politicians and religious
leaders are up for the challenge. The future of humanity will depend on it.
Tuesday, December 1, 2015
Extraterrestrial Contact: Fault Lines
I believe that problematic reactions in human society will
form along familiar fault lines in the wake of First Contact with an
extraterrestrial civilization. However, those fault lines could resonate and
grow in new and unexpected directions. In the same way that geologists track changes
in the earth’s crust to detect the probability of earthquakes, social
scientists, governments and institutions will need to track public perception and opinion. Notice that I mention perception first. We're used to gauging public opinion and perhaps not so used to evaluating perception. The difference, as I see it, is depth of analysis and context.
Humans will need active and sustained research to inform world leaders and the
public at large. Collectively, we will need to hold up a thoughtful mirror to
humanity and carefully evaluate how we are reacting to First Contact.
Communication and decision-making should follow from a close examination of
that human reaction. The danger After First Contact will come in knee-jerk
responses and in a failure to predict where things will go next.
What should we be looking for?
Ultimately, the monitoring of public perception can inform us, so that we can make decisions on how to move forward. Many concerns and worries will be quite legitimate. Humanity won’t come up with the answers for how to move forward immediately After First Contact. It will be a process of discussion, debate and revision. That will involve listening to the world public- each and every nation; people from many religions and cultural backgrounds. This isn’t a process reserved for the most wealthy of nations, particular blocs of nations or the so-called “free world.” This is a process for all of humanity.
Concerns, worries, rumors, misinformation and confusion can turn into fear if not addressed. Fear can lead to civil unrest. Concerns and worries can also be used by individuals and groups in the promotion of agendas that are ultimately more about grabbing power, than the actual concerns or worries.
Humans will be humans. We will need to listen. We will need to respond.
What should we be looking for?
-Confusion
-Concerns
-Worries
-Rumors
-Misinformation
-Signs of extremism leading to violence
This monitoring of public perception can lead to a better
response by scientists, the media and governments in informing the public of
the facts and clearing up confusion.
The world news media will be especially important partners in this process. They will have to be cautious and deliberate in their response to new information and in the coverage of events After First Contact. Media outlets will likely be the first organizations confronted with misinformation and rumors. Weeding out the truth will be incredibly important. It will be the duty of dedicated journalists to work with knowledgeable and trusted scientists. News organizations will need to strengthen filters to sort out bad information and prevent themselves from hurtling head-first into questionable stories. This won't be easy. Competition will be fierce and public desire for new information intense. The most important news organizations in this process may be the ones currently most susceptible to hype and rumor: the 24 hour TV news networks. If they fail us, the entire media structure could collapse into a squalor of stupidity. Here's looking at you CNN, Fox News, Sky, BBC, CNC, RT, DD, France 24, Deutsche Welle and MSNBC. Will you lead or will you fail? If you fail, then the public will need to turn you off and seek sober coverage.
The world news media will be especially important partners in this process. They will have to be cautious and deliberate in their response to new information and in the coverage of events After First Contact. Media outlets will likely be the first organizations confronted with misinformation and rumors. Weeding out the truth will be incredibly important. It will be the duty of dedicated journalists to work with knowledgeable and trusted scientists. News organizations will need to strengthen filters to sort out bad information and prevent themselves from hurtling head-first into questionable stories. This won't be easy. Competition will be fierce and public desire for new information intense. The most important news organizations in this process may be the ones currently most susceptible to hype and rumor: the 24 hour TV news networks. If they fail us, the entire media structure could collapse into a squalor of stupidity. Here's looking at you CNN, Fox News, Sky, BBC, CNC, RT, DD, France 24, Deutsche Welle and MSNBC. Will you lead or will you fail? If you fail, then the public will need to turn you off and seek sober coverage.
Ultimately, the monitoring of public perception can inform us, so that we can make decisions on how to move forward. Many concerns and worries will be quite legitimate. Humanity won’t come up with the answers for how to move forward immediately After First Contact. It will be a process of discussion, debate and revision. That will involve listening to the world public- each and every nation; people from many religions and cultural backgrounds. This isn’t a process reserved for the most wealthy of nations, particular blocs of nations or the so-called “free world.” This is a process for all of humanity.
Concerns, worries, rumors, misinformation and confusion can turn into fear if not addressed. Fear can lead to civil unrest. Concerns and worries can also be used by individuals and groups in the promotion of agendas that are ultimately more about grabbing power, than the actual concerns or worries.
Humans will be humans. We will need to listen. We will need to respond.
Have I missed something that we would also need to track
After First Contact? Join in the discussion on the Alien First Contact Facebook page.
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