Monday, June 27, 2011

Eight Things We Could Expect from Direct First Contact

Here are eight things we could expect from Direct First Contact with an extraterrestrial civilization. That is, First Contact that involves extraterrestrial visitors coming to earth.

1. If an extraterrestrial is curious enough to contact humans it would probably share some of our intellectual abilities and value orientations. This idea comes from psychologist John Baird in his book "The Inner Limits of Outer Space"

2. If they reach us first they are likely to be scientifically and technologically superior to us. This again is from the Baird book, but a common idea shared by many. It is really common sense. We don’t have the ability to travel between stars. If they come here they do have that ability. Ergo they are more technologically advanced.

3. If they wish to make contact they would likely do research first. They would probably examine our environment, language, culture and psychological nature. Once again, this is a proposition derived from common sense. If they have the ability to travel between stars they have problem solving abilities. Research is a basic step in problem solving.

4. They would most likely have a motivation for First Contact and a plan for carrying it out. If you understand problem solving you probably won’t take serious action without a plan.

5. They would be bringing their party to our house. First Contact, at least in the initial stages, would be their objectives, their process and their rules.

6. If they have studied us thoroughly, they would realize that we would not react well to such an overtly controlling process.

7. They would probably consider ways to keep us peaceful, calm and open to communication.

8. In short: they would have a public relations plan.

What does all of this mean for us? We must be cautious at every step. We must work to determine their true motivation and what it means for us. We cannot assume their motivations will keep our best interests in mind. We must be as open as possible and not let paranoia and fear prevent us from acting effectively. We must be united in our approach and response. We must state clearly that First Contact on our planet must be carried out according to our rules. We must quickly establish guidelines and protocols for protecting our civilization and yet keeping an open dialogue to develop a fruitful relationship. We must hope for the best and prepare for the worst.

Monday, June 20, 2011

The Psychology of First Contact

Contact with extraterrestrials is more than just a scientific or social challenge. There will be psychological challenges for humans. Much would depend on the type of contact. The most profound impact would be in a Direct First Contact event, where humans interact directly with extraterrestrials. There’s not much written on the psychology of First Contact. One of the better books is "The Inner Limits of Outer Space" by John Baird. 
The psychologist posits that social communication with aliens will be modeled, at least from our perspective, on our own social interaction. No surprise there, modeling our behavior on what we have come to expect in human relationships is our only option- we simply don’t have any other frame of reference. For humans, and for the aliens, the relationship will be based on how each party views the other and perceives relative intelligence, social rank and knowledge.

Much of Baird’s book explores SETI based communication with extraterrestrials. He was part of a NASA study group on the issue in the 1970’s. However, his work does have application to Direct First Contact as well.

It has been expected that in a Direct First Contact scenario the visiting aliens would be more technologically advanced, which makes sense considering that we do not have the technology to visit them and by the very nature of the scenario they do have the technology to visit us. This would immediately place the relationship in a type of imbalance.

Baird suggests that while many scientists have used technology to set up possible comparison scales to extraterrestrials, a much better scale would be to determine how they think and how similar that thinking is to the human mentality. It is a bold suggestion and one that makes sense. Sure, technology will be a huge part of the discussion, but that very discussion rests on a foundation of communication and interaction. If the aliens think very differently from us the relationship will be harder to form. If they think more like us it will be easier. Science is only one way to compare civilizations. We would have a much stronger bond if they had some appreciation of the role of art and music in our society. If they have similar pursuits there will be a connection, perhaps one even stronger than science, due to the more personal nature of art and music and the deep connection of those activities to our culture.

There is a tendency for humans to view everything with an anthropocentric bias. Many prominent researchers have been arguing that our narrow definition of what could form biological life could interfere with our search for extraterrestrial intelligence. Baird was one of the first to broach the subject in the 1980s. It applies to Direct First Contact as well, as our focus on an anthropocentric view of communication could be extremely limiting in how we interact with alien intelligence.

Baird suggests that one way of helping us understand an extraterrestrial intelligence is by examining how humans perceive intelligence. Researchers say that humans have many different types of intelligence and no one measure is enough to judge the sum. Baird uses an interesting comparison in this argument, taking a look at how adults view the intelligence of a child. The very notion of growing up and gaining in knowledge is a given, but does it really make one more intelligent? You can argue that humans become more set in their ways as adults, less playful and less excited by new ideas. We can see those child-like attributes in some of the most successful older adults: a constant need for play with ideas.

Probably the biggest take-away from Baird’s book is the idea that First Contact would be an extremely complicated relationship from many perspectives. We would have to be prepared to take several steps back from our usual way of thinking and take in perspectives we have not imagined. The danger is that some humans will not want to spend the time or energy to consider such things. That could lead to knee-jerk reactions based on anthropocentric fears and judgments. If it’s simply a problem for the man or woman on the street that’s one thing, but what is the likelihood that our political leaders would be able to rise above this base level thinking?

Monday, June 13, 2011

Conspiracy Theory After First Contact

Conspiracy has been popular in American culture for years and the rise of the Internet has brought it to a fever pitch in certain circles. Nothing breeds mistrust like bad information. Bill Keller of the New York Times has an interesting piece in the New York Times Magazine about conspiracy, tracing the American obsession from President Kennedy’s assassination to the President Obama birth certificate frenzy. Keller points out that much of it seems to stem from a mistrust of authority, whether that authority is a government commission or the New York Times. The Internet provides fertile ground for self-made authorities who buck conventional logic and often reality.

Now I’m about to take the question a bit further than Mr. Keller would have intended. Can you imagine all of the nut bag crazy conspiracy theories that would circulate After First Contact with an extraterrestrial civilization? Keller points to a book by Mike Fenster called “Conspiracy Theories: Secrecy and Power in American Culture.” Fenster says that conspiracy is often a response to unusual events. I can’t imagine an event stranger than First Contact. In addition to that potent catalyst, humans will undoubtedly have to deal with the incredible load of conspiracy baggage that already exists concerning extraterrestrials: abduction, government collusion, secret societies and alien infiltration. If folks are already loony about extraterrestrials, and there is absolutely no credible evidence that extraterrestrials exist, what the heck happens if we have actual evidence that they do exist?

I would imagine that after a brief period of shock and awe, which will shut down most of the crazy conversation, the conspiracy bandwagon will grow new stories and crazier plots. The thing that will make it tough to refute the theories: the reality is already bizarre enough. If aliens actually do exist, is it that much of a leap to think they kidnapped and brain-mapped your cousin Clarence? And who’s to say they’re not abducting people and dissecting cows? The aliens? Like we’re going to believe them. How about a government commission? Oh, wait, let’s not go there. Perhaps the New York Times could investigate?

First Contact would fuel wilder and more robust conspiracy theories. The only possible hope is transparency. And it would have to be a brutal, bare-all type of transparency that keeps every decision and each action clearly in the public eye. That won’t be easy. It’s one of the reasons I suggest that an explosive and dramatic Direct First Contact event would be the best way for an extraterrestrial civilization to say hello in person. It bypasses government secrecy and goes straight to the people via the live media. This is an important distinction, not the behind the scenes, we don’t know what you’re leaving out or putting in media, but the live media. Events and actions need to occur in full public view and live television offers that ability in a way that no other medium can. Even with that approach there will be years and years of debunking and myth busting necessary and unfortunately the alien visitors would have to be front and center for that questioning. Sure, it’s rather annoying to say hello to a new planet and then be brought before some organization that will ask you if you have been anal probing the very beings you have just met. Annoying and necessary.

And I have one prediction that I know will stand up in any First Contact situation. No matter how transparent and no matter how many questions are answered there will always be new conspiracy theories and paranoia will fester for many, many years. It’s just the way some of us humans think and unfortunately my alien friends if you embark on a relationship with us humans you get all of us.

Monday, June 6, 2011

Extraterrestrials, Hawks and Doves

If extraterrestrial intelligence is ever discovered in the universe, we may very well think back on these days as a time of relative ease of mind. The very notion that extraterrestrial civilizations exist could bring about a sudden fear. What we don’t know at all doesn’t seem to bother us, what we know only slightly could scare us half to death. The primary driver is of course that lack of knowledge. How many civilizations are out there? Can they travel? Do they plan to visit? Are they friendly? Even the slightest proof that extraterrestrial intelligence exists would inspire all of these questions and many more.

Scientists are quick to point out that given our current understanding of the physical world interstellar travel is quite impractical- both expensive and time consuming. Thus any relationship with extraterrestrials would likely be via communication. The vast distance between stars would provide a ready-made insulation of sorts, ensuring our safety. Given that our understanding of the physical world has changed rapidly over the last couple of hundred years though, it also seems likely that our science will progress and we will learn new things about the laws that govern actions in the universe.

First Contact would bring the issue of safety to the forefront of discussion and it seems likely that humans will fall into the same divisions that we currently do. The hawks and the doves will have a grand debate.

Planetary defense has been considered primarily for a much more likely threat: asteroids and other objects coming near the Earth. The American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics has held yearly conferences about the issue of near Earth objects (NEO), including one conference just a few weeks ago in Romania.
NASA and several other agencies participate in these conferences and they are perhaps the best gauge of current thinking in regards to planetary defense. Still, deflecting a near Earth object would be much different than trying to defend against intelligent beings. The NEO, probably being an errant asteroid, can’t plan countermeasures or use stealth technology. 

Planetary defense against alien invaders has been discussed in the world of science fiction and raised as a realistic concern by only a handful of authors. Travis Taylor, Bob Boan, Charles Anding and Conley Powell have written one of the few ETI oriented planetary defense books, calledAn Introduction to Planetary Defense: A Study of Modern Warfare Applied to Extra-Terrestrial Invasion.” These engineers have been involved in aerospace research for many years and they raise several thoughtful ideas in the book about the issue of defense against extraterrestrials. The problem is that Hollywood has also weighed-in, and those special effects driven spectaculars do little to examine the real issues. This month the National Geographic Channel takes a closer look with a show called “When Aliens Attack.”
Most of the show is based on the usual television silliness, framed around an animated portrayal of an alien attack. We ponder how humans could use balloons to drop onto alien ships to stage an attack. We get animated examples of how F-18s would fare against alien fighter ships. We make assumption, after assumption; go through scenario after scenario and reveal, well…basically nothing. It isn’t that much different from what you’ve already seen in the many movies on the subject.

There is a glimmer of hope for substance in the TV show, as the issue of the U.N. protocol for extraterrestrial contact is raised. Researcher and author Michael Michaud pops up with thoughtful, albeit brief, commentary and then he’s gone and it’s back to the dramatics. Michaud is also allowed to discuss the problem of communication with aliens; however it’s also a short break from the silliness. The show does talk about the need for a global army in the case of an attack and some other interesting issues, but they are merely raised and then gone as the cheesy animated attack continues.

Okay, fine. I understand it’s just a television show. The producers are attempting to amuse middle aged men drinking a beer after mowing the lawn. But couldn’t they have spent just a few more moments hearing from this rather esteemed line-up of interview subjects? I’m sure Mr. Michaud, Seth Shostak and Travis Taylor had much more interesting things to say. Those comments are probably lost on the proverbial cutting room floor.

All of these issues would come to the forefront in the wake of First Contact. The hawks will demand a robust defense with an emphasis on new technology. The doves will say that it’s pointless to prepare and we would be better off sending positive messages to signal that we are not aggressive. Both groups will have valid points. Preparation could be tremendously important or it could be of no use at all. Aggressive actions could send the wrong message, or they could let an adversary know we won’t go down without a fight.

The problem with all of it? The unknown. Even if we intercept a signal and even if we start a conversation (likely to be decades long conversation as the messages travel back and forth) we would have many more questions than answers. We need a debate here on Earth because the answers are not clear cut. With so many variables and so many unknowns every view should be taken seriously, at least at first. Then the United Nations will need to lead the way and put together a plan of action. That will be perhaps the biggest hurdle of all. The hawks versus doves debate will bring out international squabbles and Earth-bound security concerns. Each nation will be looking not only to space for a possible confrontation, but also to their neighbors here on Earth. Will China be interested in sharing its latest military technology with the United States and vice-versa?
Without strong United Nations leadership, and a recognized body to take up the issue, it would be a debate beyond anything that we have experienced on Earth thus far. There is at least one thing we can do now- prepare ourselves for how we might handle the diplomatic and international issues of First Contact. It’s something that could reside entirely on paper and doesn’t require a big expenditure of money. Imagine how much further along we would be if we did some planning before panic strikes.

Jill Tarter of the SETI Institute, Michael Michaud and others tried to get the United Nations to take action. Michaud details the actions in his excellent book “Contact with Alien Civilizations”. They presented an International Academy of Astronautics (IAA) position paper to the U.N. Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (COPUOS) in 1996 in regards to First Contact protocol. They followed up with a briefing on the documents in 2000. Both of these were accepted by the UN and then ignored.

The issue of First Contact has so many implications that it deserves a serious treatment. The details of a defined First Contact diplomatic and response protocol might not be of much interest to a guy watching TV and drinking a beer on a Saturday afternoon. However, such a robust protocol could be a good starting point if we ever do make First Contact.