Saturday, April 19, 2008

Black Swan

"What we call here a Black Swan (and capitalize it) is an event with the following three attributes. First, it is an outlier, as it lies outside the realm of regular expectations, because nothing in the past can convincingly point to its possibility. Second, it carries an extreme impact. Third, in spite of its outlier status, human nature makes us concoct explanations for its occurrence after the fact, making it explainable and predictable."

The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable,' by Nassim Nicholas Taleb: Possibly Maybe (April 22, 2007)

No comments: