Wednesday, March 4, 2020

Extraterrestrial First Contact: A World-Wide Jolt to the System


The Coronavirus named COVID-19 can provide great insight into how crisis is managed at the international level. It began as an illness in one particular Chinese city, Wuhan, and within weeks posed a threat to the stability of the world economy. It shows how nations are very much tied together these days. The Chinese response of shutting down factories and product distribution networks to prevent further spread of the disease soon became a concern internationally. And we are connected by more than just economic factors. Recently Paul Stares with the Council on Foreign Relations took a look at international crisis: “The world’s primary operating systems are now so tightly coupled that even relatively minor disruptions or shocks from geopolitical events are likely to reverberate widely and rapidly.”

Extraterrestrial First Contact could be a major geopolitical event for humanity. It depends on how big a threat it is to our security and how disruptive it is to our way of thinking. I believe that the proximity of aliens to Earth and the amount of information available from those aliens would be the two most important considerations in determining the level of crisis in a First Contact event. If the aliens are communicating to us from light-years away, the threat is relatively insignificant. However, if aliens have a spacecraft orbiting Earth, the level of threat would be quite high. I call that Direct First Contact.

The problem with responding to crisis in a Direct First Contact situation would not be getting people to pay attention- that would happen quite rapidly. The challenge would be how to get people to look beyond the obvious threat and examine the possible repercussions from First Contact. If aliens present themselves to us with good intentions, I believe that these repercussions could be much more dangerous than the alien threat. Those actions could include misinformation leading to fear; nations and corporations fighting for access to extraterrestrial information and insight; power grabs by politicians; and extremist violence.

This 2009 warning by the Council on Foreign Relations was a response to more earthly matters, but one could see how it could apply to extraterrestrial First Contact:

“Getting policymakers to commit resources proactively to address a hypothetical problem when there are demon­strably real ones in need of attention is difficult. Even when there are convincing signs of an emerging crisis, harried policymakers are still inclined to focus on man­aging the problem on their desks rather than the one still buried in their in-boxes. By the time the danger signals are unavoidable, the opportunities for early preventive action may have passed or the remaining options may seem either ineffective or too risky, further compounding the political inertia.”

What resources should policymakers commit in response to Direct First Contact? The most important could be a network to disseminate factual information while also dispelling misinformation. Direct First Contact would create quite a bit of fear and fear in the age of the Internet means fast-moving rumors. Governments would need to work together to establish a system to keep the public informed and calmed. That is not likely to top the agenda of worried national leaders in the wake of a Direct First Contact event. And it goes further than just public information: an entire network would have to be established to handle the needs of First Contact, beyond obvious military concerns. We would have to decide how the relationship between humans and aliens should proceed. We would need to determine how information would flow from aliens to humans, and if human gatekeepers were needed to prevent chaos in our institutions because of that information.

The problem is that none of this infrastructure exists. It would have to be built from the ground up and it would have to be constructed quickly. Humans can be incredibly responsive in times of crisis. The big question is whether the fear and awe that would be an inherent part of a Direct First Contact situation would so distract us that we would descend into chaos before we could establish a framework for response. Making use of current institutions, such as the United Nations, would be critical. But perhaps the most important part of the response would be calm world leaders working together across international boundaries to do what is best for the human race in the short term, and for future generations.

Photo by Kyle Glenn on Unsplash

Friday, February 21, 2020

Extraterrestrial First Contact: What Does a Virus Have in Common with Aliens?


The human response to the spread of the coronavirus named COVID-19 provides some interesting examples of the importance of communication during a crisis and the danger of misinformation. What does that have to do with Direct First Contact with an extraterrestrial civilization? Plenty. The epidemic is an event of worldwide significance drawing much attention. Communication is important so that hospitals and health agencies can respond. The lack of communication in China in the first few weeks of the epidemic, and in fact the suppression of communication, may have aggravated the problem by slowing response. Now health organizations are dealing with the dangers of misinformation. Those broad challenges could be issues in a Direct First Contact event.

The United Nations and World Health Organization are trying to counteract COVID-19 misinformation with a new coordinated public relations effort. Some of the rumors about COVID-19 include that it was produced by a nation as a weapon and that it can be stopped by eating garlic. Rumors are dangerous. If people are busy eating garlic, thinking that it protects them from the virus, they may not be doing the things they should be doing, such as washing their hands regularly. The more toxic rumors, such as COVID-19 being a bioweapon, spreads fear and distrust of authorities. And that makes it tougher for those authorities to respond to the outbreak in order to protect the public.

You can imagine the rumors that would fly during a Direct First Contact event. Social media sites across the globe would be flooded with rumors and misinformation. The UN response to misinformation in this health epidemic can provide a road map for possible human response during a Direct First Contact event. I often look at crisis events through the lens of alien First Contact. It may be our only hope in trying to plan for such an event. And I realize that the discovery of a far-off alien signal would be much less of a safety and public relations concern. However, Direct First Contact, where aliens come to our solar system to say hello to humans, would provide both excitement and anxiety in the human population, similar in many respects to a global public health threat. It’s impossible to say how Direct First Contact may occur, if it ever does occur, but we can study human events to see how humans may react and determine what may be necessary in response.



Monday, February 3, 2020

Extraterrestrial First Contact: The Problem with Human Governments




Perhaps the biggest challenge for visiting extraterrestrials in a Direct First Contact event would be the human system of governance. There are currently 195 countries on planet Earth. Despite extensive global interaction, and many alliances, those are 195 sovereign nations, all with different wants and needs. Communicating with one government would inevitably lead to conflict between nations. It would also cause distrust and that is something that could impact a relationship between aliens and humans for many generations. The United Nations has 193 member countries, so it does represent the great majority of humans. However, the UN has limited power and constrained duties. Contacting the UN would seem like a logical choice for visiting extraterrestrials, but that depends on their agenda.

Humans could be manipulated by playing nations against each other. Aliens could negotiate an alliance with one nation and then enter into talks with the rivals of that nation. While that is a possibility it would only make sense if there was something aliens wanted from humans. A Direct First Contact scenario is defined as extraterrestrials visiting our solar system. To accomplish that they would need technology far beyond anything we currently have. So, it begs the question- what would they want or need from humans? The first idea that comes to mind is control. If extraterrestrials were concerned about humans traveling out into the universe they could attempt to thwart that endeavor by keeping us busy at home. Manipulation, and eventual conflict between nations, could keep us quite busy. The time and resources needed for space exploration could be squandered on in-fighting. Such machinations would take a lot of work. Extraterrestrials would probably be better off destroying Earth outright, if humans were considered a threat.

If extraterrestrials had altruistic intentions they would need to be very careful in how they communicated with humans. Even the United Nations approach would be difficult due to the distrust some nations have with the UN, the United States especially. Just gaining a consensus in the UN Security Council would be difficult due to heightened tensions between those member nations. However, it seems the only logical path forward, if aliens were interested in a long-term relationship with humans.

If aliens would want a positive relationship with humans they would be wise to take a straightforward approach: tell humans exactly why they are saying hello and what they expect from the relationship. Transparency and honesty would be important for extraterrestrials in a First Contact situation. Such terms may not apply to alien society, but if extraterrestrials did their homework, they would know those things mean much to humans.

We are a complicated bunch. Our international relations are often a mystery to even our experts. It is a situation that is also changing continuously. Visiting aliens would be advised to keep their approach simple and deal with all humans at once, rather than get pulled into the global fray.

Photo by Kyle Glenn on Unsplash

 



 


Monday, January 6, 2020

Extraterrestrial First Contact: What We Would Want From Them


As a human, I have a few thoughts on how I would hope extraterrestrials would behave during a high-information First Contact event in our solar system.

Be clear. First Contact would be a stressful moment for humans, especially if the extraterrestrials arrive in our solar system. I think humans would want a clear reason for why aliens are saying hello and what their agenda is in making contact with us.

Be honest. This may be just a human characteristic, but we prefer beings to say exactly what they mean and act accordingly. Dishonesty would be the quickest way to harm a relationship with humans.

No mystery. Humans will concoct enough conspiracy theories and misinformation on their own. We don’t need mysterious alien communication to make it worse. Please be straightforward.

Let us know what you want, right away. Don’t keep humans in suspense. It seems unlikely that beings would travel to our solar system without a reason. Let us know why you are here and what you expect to happen.

Don’t be threatening. Human governments would be on high alert if First Contact occurred in our solar system. We would feel threatened. If that is not your intention, please do everything you can to show us that you are peaceful. Avoid confrontations and clearly state any actions you plan to take, well before you take them.

Don’t interfere with our institutions. Aliens could manipulate international relations to achieve power. They could attempt to influence governments or other human institutions. This would ultimately be perceived as a great threat. Please work with all humans and all countries collectively, and do so openly. Transparency would be critical to success.

Respect our Neighborhood. Our solar system is our neighborhood, please respect our right to have a safe territory.


Respect our right to self-determination. Humans pride themselves on independence. Allow us to decide how First Contact will progress and how much or little interaction we would prefer.


Photo by Melinda Gimpel on Unsplash

Monday, December 2, 2019

Extraterrestrial First Contact: Higher Ed and the Search



Higher education institutions- colleges and universities across the globe- are an important part of our human system of knowledge. Not only do they provide training in many academic disciplines, they teach people how to learn. Higher Ed institutions also support research that is fundamental to our scientific system. So, should higher education devote time and energy to the consideration of extraterrestrial life? It is an area called astrobiology and has many scientists and researchers involved. National space organizations, such as NASA, conduct research in astrobiology. The study of, and search for, extraterrestrial intelligence is another matter entirely. It suffers from a lack of funding, especially from government sources.

Studies show that many humans believe that extraterrestrial intelligence exists in the universe. A 2017 survey by an organization called Glocalities reached 26,000 thousand people in 24 countries. The results showed 47 percent of respondents believed that extraterrestrial intelligence exists elsewhere in the universe. So, why wouldn’t SETI research get more funding and respect? The answer is, of course, the ha-ha effect. People who consider such things are viewed as odd, at best, and crazy, at worst. The surveys show that may be primarily an institutional problem, not a public perception. Institutions are worried that their reputation will be tarnished by supporting SETI research.

The academic leaders in the search for extraterrestrial intelligence and the understanding of issues connected to the discovery of extraterrestrial intelligence often stand alone. If they are lucky they have the support of an astrophysics or astronomy department at their institution. But it is also likely they are fighting each and every day for respect and funding. Researchers say it is a career risk to pursue research involving extraterrestrial intelligence.

The big dog in the university study of SETI (Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence) is U-C Berkeley. Cornell University, MIT, Harvard, Arizona State University, and Ohio State University also play large roles in research. But there are not many U.S. institutions that openly support significant SETI research. Just look at the reaction the chair of the Harvard Astronomy Department received when he suggested scientists consider the possibility that a large object traveling past Earth, and with an origin outside the solar system, might have been created by extraterrestrial intelligence. Dr. Avi Loeb didn’t say Oumuamua was created by extraterrestrials. He merely suggested that we consider the idea and look for scientific evidence to support or refute the claim. In the end, that evidence proved to the contrary. But the simple suggestion that academics widen their perspective to consider the possibility of extraterrestrial intelligence provoked a huge backlash in the scientific world.

I understand the fear. There are many people who espouse theories about extraterrestrial intelligence without any facts to support those theories. And if they do have facts they are from less than credible sources. Still, is it wise for us to let fringe groups impact how the wider scientific community does research and considers new ideas?

It was heartening when Penn State University announced last year a graduate class in the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence. The class is now officially in the college catalog. And Penn State, under the leadership of astronomy and astrophysics professor Jason Wright, is taking another bold step with the formation of PSETI Center: The Penn State Extraterrestrial Intelligence Center. It is envisioned as an academic hub for SETI research, learning, workshops, and conferences. It is something SETI researchers have been hoping would happen for many years. As Scientific American reports, there are only seven people who have received PhDs based on SETI research.

I understand that there are many other academic fields and specialties that are more important to humans right now. We are experiencing what I would call a “pants on fire” moment. What I mean by this is that when your pants are on fire it’s tough to consider things that are less immediate. Our pants on fire moment is dominated by climate change, environmental collapse, bacteriological risks, war, political divisions, and a fierce worldwide immigration debate. However, it must be pointed out that if we do contact extraterrestrial intelligence someday, and if that intelligence is able to communicate with us quickly, it would be also be a pants on fire moment for humanity.  It seems prudent to spend at least a tiny amount of time and energy to prepare ourselves for the possibility.
Photo by Quentin Kemmel on Unsplash

Tuesday, November 5, 2019

Extraterrestrial First Contact: Too Many Humans?


I notice it most when I drive: everything is so congested these days. I took a trip into downtown Nashville the other day and it compared to my traffic nightmares in Boston and New York. It was a far different experience from when I first moved here 15 years ago. I could blame it on the population boom in the city or the increase in tourists, and certainly those are issues impacting traffic, but congestion is a problem for many places here on Earth. The primary reasons are simple: there are more humans on the planet and those people are increasingly living in cities.

The numbers are staggering: the world population increased by 400 percent in the 20th century. It doubled from 2.5 billion people in 1950 to five billion in 1987. There are many factors driving that trend, aside from more people making more people. There has been a decline in infant mortality and an increase in life expectancy. Those are good things, of course. Another positive is that thanks to birth control, the percentage of increase in the world population has been decreasing since the 1960s. Still, the United Nations projects that by 2100 there will be just over 11 billion humans on the planet. There is also a rise in urbanization. Rural areas are frequently left out of economic growth and that causes people to move to cities. In 1800 three percent of the world population lived in cities. Currently 55 percent of the world population lives in an urban area. That is expected to increase to 68 percent by 2050.

The population of Africa is estimated to double by 2100. That figure may be unsustainable, meaning that many Africans may have to migrate to other countries to survive. Immigration fuels a non-cooperation sentiment that is currently evident in the United States, Australia, and Europe.  You can call it nationalism, but that may be too simple a term. Studies of nationalism stress that such movements are often made up of many different components. Florian Bieber points out that two causes of protectionist behavior are polarization and marginalization of large segments of the population. Bieber’s 2018 article in the Journal of Ethnopolitics suggests that nationalism is indeed undergoing a surge in many countries, but the reasons for such reactions are not always the same. Many public sentiments that are actively categorized as nationalistic may be a more complex reaction to changes in society. Population growth is going to cause more change.


The ironic part of this discussion is that many first-world nations will need more people soon. Japan is already facing a population decline problem and the United States and Europe are not far behind. Population decline can be dangerous for growth-based economies. It would seem that immigration could help to solve the problem, however that will depend on our ability to accept the change that accompanies immigration.


The number of humans on the planet is directly tied to Climate Change. Each and every person has a carbon footprint in many different ways. Thousands of scientists recently participated in a report in the Journal Bioscience that calls Climate Change an emergency, and directly ties human population to the problem.

I believe that these stresses and strains are part of the consideration of extraterrestrial contact. How so? Human reaction to alien First Contact will likely be tied to how we feel about our own world. Problems relating to over population and urbanization dictate the public perception of other issues, such as protectionism, national politics, and international relations. If we are in conflict with each other, it will be tough to have a thoughtful dialog about moving forward in a new relationship with aliens. Xenophobia and religious fundamentalism would almost certainly play a part in the human reaction to First Contact. Even if the majority of the human population were to view such an event as positive, many fringe groups would have a negative perception.

What can we do? Clearly we have important issues in human society to tackle whether or not aliens ever become part of our reality. However, if First Contact does occur someday, understanding the cultural, political, and religious climate here on Earth will be important to determine how best to move forward. Even the most vehement reactions to extraterrestrial contact may come with reasonable concerns. Groups that already feel marginalized may feel more so. People with low incomes could be worried that First Contact will leave them behind economically. In the wake of First Contact, world leaders, analysts, and the media will have to listen carefully to many different people, in many different countries, to get beneath surface level reactions, and find what human issues may be driving negative perceptions towards aliens.

Many people hope that communication with extraterrestrials could help us solve our problems here on Earth. The sharing of technology could help, if handled carefully, and if aliens want to share. However, First Contact, if it includes significant information sharing, will also increase stresses already inherent in human society. The first weeks and months after such an event could be a tumultuous time in human history.
Photo by Anton Kraev on Unsplash

Tuesday, October 1, 2019

Extraterrestrial First Contact: Top Ten Challenges for Humans


Everyone loves a good top ten list. While I would be hesitant to call the topics on this list good- here are what I would call the top 10 challenges for humans and a look at how extraterrestrial interaction with high-information sharing could help in overcoming those challenges. Or not. With an emphasis on not.
Clean Energy Needs

Technology requires power. Developing countries need more power. The US Government predicts that the world demand for energy will increase 56 percent by 2040.  Fossil fuels supply 80 percent of world energy. While renewable and nuclear power production is growing by 2 percent a year, it’s not anywhere near enough to keep up with demand. The burning of fossil fuels has a major impact on climate change. The eventual depletion of fossil fuels could lead to serious conflict. That’s why energy is the number one concern. If we do make contact with extraterrestrials someday, insight into their energy technology would probably be at the top of our “ask” list. However, it is not likely that we would easily understand alien science. It could take years of communication for alien advice to do us any good. Our science is likely to be very different from extraterrestrial science. Merging the two, if the aliens were even willing to share, could be a long process. Even then, we need to consider the dangers of such information sharing- including how it could harm our civilization.The best bet could be to have aliens look at our technology and provide ideas for improving our techniques in areas such as nuclear fusion and traveling-wave fission. 

Climate Change

Humans finally seem to be grasping the enormity of climate change. It currently impacts our weather, causing rippling effects across the planet for humans and nature. Sea level rise is becoming a major concern in many nations. And yet we have done little to respond. This was brought to the forefront recently at the UN. The primary actions driving climate change are the burning of fossil fuels and food production. The changes needed to tackle these issues will be hard on everyone. They will require a major investment of money and people-power, and significant lifestyle adjustments for humans. Even if aliens did help us with ideas on how to create clean energy, there would still need to be massive changes to cope with the mess that we have already created. It's such a complicated set of Earth-specific challenges that it is unlikely alien technology could help much. We could ask for advice on how to change our atmosphere. Perhaps alien scientists would have a method for removing carbon dioxide? Unless it was a quick fix, humans would still need to deal with the current problems created by global warming.

Ecological Collapse

Climate change and other human-caused environmental impacts are causing many species to go extinct. Some are calling it ecological collapse. The attention to the subject has tended to focus on mammals. The bigger issue may be insects. Scientists report a decline of more than 75 percent in insect biomass across nature areas in Germany between 1989 and 2016. Insects are part of the foundation of our biological world. Another study shows a massive decline in the number of birds in North America. Our environment is a fragile network of species working in concert. When species go extinct in the insect world there is a direct and immediate impact on the entire ecosystem, and that includes agriculture. It is unlikely that extraterrestrials would have ideas to help us with our ecology. It is specific to our planet. We have been studying Earth ecology for hundreds of years. The problems caused by the extinction of species will be ours to solve.

Nuclear War

It is a sign of our times that I put the threat of nuclear war behind these other challenges. It is just as dangerous a situation as ever. The other challenges have simply surpassed it in the level of threat. I don’t see alien interaction helping much in the area of nuclear proliferation. If anything, we would run the risk of hawks wanting to put nuclear weaponry into space to protect us from extraterrestrials.

Conventional Warfare

Alien First Contact, especially high-information contact, could create many stresses on human society. In the worst case scenario this could lead to war between nations. The most important part of any alien contact strategy would be to have all nations involved in the process and to quickly resolve problems as they arise.

Famine and Illness

Climate change and ecological collapse could easily move famine and illness to the top of the list. This is another area where humans will be on their own. Aliens would be unlikely to have advice about human agriculture. Illness is becoming a bigger issue with the rise of superbugs. Our overuse of antibacterials has created drug resistant strains. This is rapidly becoming a huge dilemma in developing countries, such as India, and the threat is growing in many other nations. Human science will need to get us out of this one, as well.

Human Migration

The movement of humans is already a source of major conflict in the world. It is likely to grow worse as climate change renders some areas of the Earth uninhabitable. We will need to work together to solve all of these problems. The movement of humans from one country to others will be a tough one to negotiate. Aliens wouldn't be able to help us with human migration. As with all human social dilemmas in the wake of alien First Contact, it would be our problem to solve.

Population Growth

Despite a decline in population growth, the UN projects that there will be more than 11 billion humans on the planet in 2100. That makes many of the other issues on this list much tougher to solve. Once again, this is something we would have to deal with on our own. One interesting side note- countries such as Japan may be facing a dangerous decline in population in the coming decades. There could be a solution found in human migration, if we can manage to put up with each other.

Repressive Governments

Repressive governments, and democratic governments becoming isolated from the international community, will be significant impediments in the quest to overcome the challenges I list here. Once again, there is not much aliens could or should do about our governments. In fact, we would want to make sure extraterrestrials didn’t interfere in any of our institutions.

Cybercrime

The wide-scale problems caused by cybercrime include everything from the hacking of business and government computer networks to interference in elections. It’s the latest example of how our technology can quickly be used to hurt us. Perhaps aliens would have some insight for how to better protect ourselves, but once again, the human Internet is likely a unique creation. We will probably have to solve these problems on our own.

Conclusion

As you can see, I don’t think that alien information would help in solving most of these human challenges. In the long-term, there could be some technological benefit from interaction with extraterrestrials. In the short-term, such a relationship would likely create more challenges than benefits. That does not mean that we should stick our collective heads in the sand in hopes that aliens will go away. The revelation of First Contact would be an inevitable part of the growth of humanity. If handled correctly, it could be an exciting step forward. Such steps do not come without conflict.

There is powerful part of alien First Contact that I have left out- the impact to the human perspective. First Contact could lead to a better understanding of our role in the universe. Perhaps we would then view people from other countries, and humans from other races and cultures, as not so different from ourselves. That could create better international cooperation. The key will be how leaders react. If they rise above the fray, and help humans to see the big picture, we could benefit greatly from First Contact. If they fail, and lead us into greater conflict, we could suffer for many generations to come. All of the issues on this list would continue to get worse. So, how do average humans make a difference? They will need to stand up and be heard. If the majority of people on the planet press for positive change in the wake of First Contact, leaders will be forced to listen. First Contact could be an opportunity for humans to choose a new path forward.

Photo by Srikanta H. U on Unsplash

Wednesday, September 4, 2019

Extraterrestrial First Contact: Expertise After First Contact


There are no experts when it comes to extraterrestrials. It’s a simple statement and easy to make because we have no facts to support such scholarship. We don’t even know if intelligent extraterrestrial beings exist. So, if Alien First Contact does happen someday, we won’t be able to turn to experts for advice. Luckily, there are enterprising scientists with expertise related to the search for extraterrestrial intelligence. These astrophysicists and astronomers use technology to explore the universe, looking for signs of intelligent life. Astrobiologists have similar roles, in the sense that while they have no extraterrestrial life to study, they have acquired expertise in how to look for signs of extraterrestrial life. These scientists would be on the front lines of the human response if we do eventually make contact with extraterrestrials. Their roles would depend on the nature of that contact. All three fields would be incredibly important if a far off signal is discovered. Such a discovery would likely come from such a scientist and they would lead the path forward. Direct First Contact would be more complicated. If aliens did visit our solar system it would create a different set of challenges. The close proximity of such an event would place more emphasis on human reaction. The tiny field of astrosociology would come into play. It is defined by its creators as the study of “the social, cultural, and behavioral patterns related to outer space.”

First Contact expertise could be divided up into two basic areas: The Study of Us and the Study of Them. The Study of Them would be an examination of the extraterrestrials themselves: their biology, psychology, society, development, science, and religion. The Study of Us would be our reaction to such information and the impact it has on our psychology, society, science and religion. Initially there would be no experts in such things. It would be necessary for human academics in those areas to apply their current knowledge to this new perspective. Comparison would probably be the first study. I think all human experts would have to first consider intelligent extraterrestrials by comparing them to humans. After all, humanity is the only benchmark we have. Comparison could then lead to a more robust study of extraterrestrials and the human reaction to First Contact.

I have often mentioned in this blog that an important consideration in the wake of First Contact will be the impact of information provided by extraterrestrials. In the case of a far-off signal, that may be less important, as communication could be quite arduous. If aliens came to our solar system, and had learned our languages, that information sharing could be much quicker and thus have much more of an impact. Experts will need to carefully assess that sharing. If we receive too much information at once we may find our institutions washed away in the process. Imagine a tsunami of foreign knowledge about physics, engineering, biology, and chemistry. It could wash away the foundations of our science. New perspectives on religion and society could have a profound impact on our social institutions.

In the long term, the academic process will adjust for these many changes and we will develop new experts in many different areas After First Contact. But getting there could be difficult. Current experts would need to move quickly to take on the challenges created by Alien First Contact. Institutions would need to be more flexible than they usually are when it comes to developing new ways of doing things. Politicians and other leaders would need to be very careful about how they react to First Contact situations. Everyone would need to work together. There would be short term needs for which expertise will be lacking. Entire new fields of study will open in the long term. We need to make sure those lines of inquiry support the needs of the human civilization. Even if aliens arrive with the best of intentions there will be a great threat to humanity. A new perspective will be exciting. It will also be dangerous to our institutions. It will take clear heads, innovative thought, and good intentions for humans to move forward in a positive way.

 

Photo by Anika Huizinga on Unsplash

Monday, August 19, 2019

Extraterrestrial First Contact: A New Era and the Three Periods for Humanity


Alien First Contact of any type will bring a major shift in perspective for humanity. Direct First Contact, extraterrestrials visiting our solar system to say hello, would create a new era for humanity. Human history could forever be marked as Before First Contact and After First Contact. I have expressed optimism for what that massive change in perspective could do for humanity. It could cause us to find new importance in our international relations. The realization that we are in this together may increase cooperation between countries here on Earth. If aliens provide us with new information about our place in the universe that too could change our perspective. Perhaps they would also have insight into our climate change issues and clean energy needs?

I don’t think that entrance into a new era will come easily. It seems to me that the impact of First Contact on human civilization would likely occur in three major phases. The first would be the Stunned Period. Humans would simply watch in awe as events unfold. It may seem remarkably peaceful at first. It is simply the eye of the storm. Within a matter of days or weeks the Stunned Period will dissipate.

The Stunned Period is not without dangers. Our world leaders will decide how First Contact proceeds. If they react poorly, the Stunned Period could quickly turn into chaos. One nation taking rogue military action against visiting extraterrestrials is an example. The nations with larger military forces, and better technology, will not only need to keep their forces calm, but be prepared to react to a rogue nation attack, such as the firing of an ICBM. Similarly, there will be a threat posed by every fighter jet or missile battery within range of an extraterrestrial craft. It would take great discipline to keep first responders and members of the military calm and yet vigilant. All militaries, in all nations, will need to be on alert in case of Direct First Contact. Just because aliens say they are here in peace doesn’t mean that is really the case. But we cannot be on a hair trigger alert. It is too dangerous. There must be a level of vigilance that is high enough to protect, while staying well away from imminent action.

Up next would be the Initial Reaction Period. In this period, all of the old hostilities and fears inherent in human relations would resurface. I believe that the Initial Reaction could be quite chaotic. Many voices will be screaming to be heard. Many groups will have differing opinions about how humans should act. Those opinions will likely fall on a continuum between fear and optimism. Some groups will want humans to protect themselves at any cost and no matter what the stated intentions of the aliens. Others will be wildly optimistic, wanting as much contact as possible to occur as quickly as possible. Within that cacophony of opinions will be extremist groups, some threatening to take physical action if they don’t get their way. Those actions could be violent. The degree to which the Initial Reaction is chaotic will depend on two primary factors: the responsiveness of governments to matters as they arise and the commonality of those government responses worldwide. If nations come together in a unified response and show the public both strong organization and care for public opinion, the violence could be quelled. If nations react slowly, and without disciplined leadership, the chaos could spread. If nations fight with each other, and have vastly different responses to First Contact, the chaos could be a world-wide phenomenon.

I believe that eventually humanity would be able to rise above the chaos and come to a consensus plan to move forward. Once again- how long that takes depends on the actions of individual nations. If governments are responsive and decisive the chaotic period could be short. When there is an international agreement on moving forward we will enter the third period, which I will call the Settlement Period. In this sense I use this dictionary definition of Settlement: an agreement composing differences. There will undoubtedly be differences in how nations think First Contact should proceed. The Settlement is the airing of those differences followed by negotiation and resolution. Why call it the Settlement Period? This process is likely to go on for many years, with each new situation bringing about a need for the airing of differences followed by negotiation and resolution. The primary sense of Settlement would be that all nations have a common process in place to solve problems and agree that using the process is better than conflict.

International relations are currently problematic here on Earth, to say the least. However, the way we are acting now doesn’t mean that we can’t rise above our differences in the future and provide a strong, unified response to extraterrestrial First Contact. I believe that anything is possible when it comes to humanity. We just have to believe in ourselves and trust each other.

Photo by Sadman Sakib on Unsplash

Monday, August 5, 2019

Extraterrestrial First Contact: Simulation Universe


Theorists have postulated that we could be living in a simulation: an artificially created universe designed for purposes unknown to us. The latest proponent is MIT researcher Rizwan Virk. The computer scientist has a new book: “The Simulation Hypothesis.” Digital Trends interviews him in a recent article. He says that there is a 50 to 100 percent chance we are living in a computer simulation. Of course, such speculation has no scientific evidence, but it is an intriguing idea that could have a big impact on extraterrestrial First Contact.

Nick Bostrom with Oxford University proposed simulation theory in 2003. But the origination of the idea comes from science fiction through the years, most notably in the 1999 movie “The Matrix.” Virk thinks that the level of sophistication of our video games, and virtual reality, shows that such a simulation could be possible with much more advanced technology.

A simulation universe leads to a couple of interesting possibilities when it comes to extraterrestrials. They could also be participants in the simulation, with no greater knowledge of the truth than us. They could be participants who have already figured out the truth. Or they may not exist at all. If there is a simulation, perhaps the creators just wanted to see how one civilization, alone in the universe, would develop. That would explain the so-called “eerie silence” that researchers use to describe the lack of observable signals from extraterrestrials.

Knowledge of a simulation universe would have a great impact on the psyche of humans. It could cause some people to go mad and give up living. It could cause anarchy in society as people decide to no longer let rules dictate their actions. We take our reality quite seriously. A disruptive revelation of such a magnitude could send us into a tailspin. Or we could be convinced that such matters don’t change anything for our individual lives. After all, what really would change? We would still need to breathe, eat sandwiches, and keep out of the cold. If we didn’t attend work we would still be fired and not have enough money to survive.  Simulation could become a new religion- something that doesn’t necessarily directly impact our day to day life, unless we choose to make decisions based on that belief. It seems likely many people would hold onto their old religions and reject simulation theory, even if we do find evidence for it.

The big takeaway from these considerations is this- extraterrestrial contact could be like nothing we have previously imagined and very disruptive to our sense of reality. We imagine all sorts of lovely things coming from extraterrestrial contact- new knowledge and advanced technology. But the revelations extraterrestrials provide about our reality could be more than we can bear.
Photo by Markus Spiske on Unsplash